Frost HoIIow

Yes since I posted those ensembles I don't think it looks as good long term now. Hence probably best to not look beyond 5 days or so. Friday & the weekend look good enough though at the minute, should be some decent sun.

Well overall that's not a bad set of ensembles. Certainly not the July horror show. August looking like bucking the trend.

Usually in long heatwaves like 2018, 1995, 1976 etc it's because of persistent high pressure over the UK. But apart from the CET these types of synoptics don't usually bring record breaking heat - but the heat that it does bring is longer lasting of course. For record breaking heat it's almost always plumes from Iberia/Africa which bring us that like today. But these synoptics don't last long. Already the cooler air is with us. The heat has been shunted away now.

33.8C on 1st August 1990. From what I recall last July came close to that though. I think with the warming climate we'll go past 34C soon enough. We seem to be challenging it most years now!

Got up to 30C here and I'm in a semi rural area. So you can add a few more degrees to that in more urban Greater Manchester. Cooler air mass on the way as winds start to come in from the W/NW from around 6pm.

That's just one small area though. Not the region as a whole. If you look at the Met Office climate maps the SE is drier (and sunnier) than the SW.

A short burst of heat tomorrow before it get's quickly moved on by fresher air. But tentative signs of further proper warmth towards the end of the coming week. But still far off to be of absolute certainty. Could August make up for the poor Summer so far?

My nephew lives in Truro and says it's often raining. I think anywhere in the west is prone to more unsettled weather. On average the best places for sun & warmth are London, Essex, Sussex, Kent, East Anglia. Basically the SE corner.

Looking like an upgrade of sorts for Friday. Temps possibly hitting 28C or thereabouts across the south of the region maybe a bit higher than that. These 20C uppers certainly seem to get further north more often these days. Climate change? Think after August 2003 we had to wait until 2015 around the hottest day ever at Wimbledon & then last July until the next times.

Still a bit out of the reliable but Friday at this stage looking very warm across the south of the region with temps easily into the mid 20s. I think most parts of the region will go past the 20C mark though. Probably the first widespread warm day this month on the last day.

Here's something for the heat lovers. Would you relish this? 52C possible in parts of Iraq this week. Basrah could get close to it's all time record of 53C.

It got to 22C at Manchester airport. Warmest day so far this month. Got to 21C here. Not too bad but still a lot of cloud at times to spoil things.

Not even got above 20C here all month & it only reached that on one day. Manchester airport has only reached 21C. Again on one day. Looking worse than July 2012 here in NW England. Yes this is not the warm magnet like the SE corner of England is but even up here it's been a poor Summer. I'm not a fan of heat but some days in the low 20s would be nice.

Yes the official CET is below average currently sitting at -0.6. Although away from that zone it is likely lower in some spots. Quite notable and a similar value to July 2012 which ended on -0.5. Last time we had a below average CET was in November I think.

I can't see any proper warm or hot weather for the rest of this month now, athough things can change at short notice. But as of today it's looking like a cooler month than July 2012. Even that mediocre month produced a brief very warm spell in the 3rd week. Only August can rescue this Summer now; which has certainly been poor. Only those with rose tinted spectacles would say otherwise.

Not a great day with heavy drizzle throughout. Next few days look fine to me. Yes temps suppressed a bit but given we're still in July the strong sun will counter that & it'll feel pleasant enough.

Not last Saturday the next one.

Well it's certainly turning into a poor Summer here in NW England. Not as bad as 2012 but only just. Still a while to go yet though until it's over. But only a few days in June would I describe as being Summery & then came the torrential thundery downpours with local flooding, with some quite incredible images on social media. July up to now has been nothing but cool, dull & uneventful in every possible way. April & May however was very sunny & warm. Not unusual though for here as there's normally a lack of westerly winds during those months. In years gone by I can remember many a good Spring only for Summer to be less impressive. The further south & east you are tend to be more sheltered from the westerly wind driven cloud & Atlantic systems. Hence the "NW/SE split." A good example is this weekend. 17C here on Saturday but 26C in London.

Temp this month still hasn't got above 20C at Manchester airport. And it only got to 19C here on Sunday on the same day. We do seem to be having these promising outlooks snatched away as we get closer to them. Never mind hot weather as it's not even been a good month for warmth so far. Only 2 weeks to go to rescue July & we're then into late Summer.

Looked through Manchester airport's records for that month & it did not get above 21C. Even July 2012 had a few days in the mid 20s toward the end of the month. I'd be surprised if we got a month as cool as July 1988 as we're not even half way through this one yet. But there's nothing indicating temps well into the 20s for at least a week for our region. Temps probably hovering from 16C to around 20C at the very best.

Yes I find anything above 18C to be a bit too warm for a good night sleep. Bedroom is close to 20C right now. That's despite the recent cool weather as well & no sun. I find it funny how weather forecasters mention outdoor temps when they mention sleeping. For me that means nothing. I'm not in a tent outside. The indoor temp is more important. The only thing that could sway it a bit is when there's a fresh breeze blowing through an open window. But that depends on wind direction too. No good if it's blowing on the other side of the house.

Yes and in February 2019 we got up to 18C towards the end of that month. A bit of an extreme example but we should be still chasing snow at that time of year not warm temps. Yet here we are in supposedly mid Summer struggling to get above 12 or 13C. It's like the seasons are completely messed up. Anyway Crewe and a couple of others think we're in for a much better Winter this year compared to the last 2 horror shows.

Yes it's not been a good Summer thus far. Last Summer wasn't great either. That freak heat toward the end of July couldn't save it. Overall it was a very wet Summer in our region. However 2018 was unquestionably good - up there with the classics of 1976 & 1995. Before 2018 you probably have to go back 5 years to the last good one in 2013. It's certainly not easy to get a dry warm Summer in our region.

Tentative signs of an improvement a week away. But we all know these things can be taken away in the runs ahead. Would be nice to get some warmth again but nothing too hot.

Not a fan of heat really but it is getting a bit depressing seeing thick cloud all day (every day) & drizzly rain currently falling. But some sun wouldn't go amiss.Tomorrow looking a bit better in that prospect. Hallelujah.