[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Rush2019

I don't post too much but I just saw your post and wanted to send you my best wishes ,take care and good luck here's  to a healthy future for you

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Lukesluckybunch

We just got to hope we get some dry weather.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 chrisnoy meteociel Chris.

Click on ECMWF and the 0.4 run.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

Again I will post the graph of European winters since 1850

It is absolutely pointless posting a chart from Feb 1922 saying look how mild it was on that particular day or week  ,the point is the milder days are becoming more frequent ,the trend is as unambiguous as you  could wish for and the warming trend since the late 1980s is clear for all to see...

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Mike Poole last line all day long.

After 20 years of chasing cold ive reached the tipping point.

I'll  visit  this great site of course and ramp away when the opportunity arises ,but the days of ' oh look at those eps ' at day 15 are over because lets call a spade a spade here , 99% of those cold  eps turn out to be cyber / reality cold .

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 Frigid again I agree with everything you wrote.

CC has taken the fun out of the chase because 99% of the time the fabulous eps at day 15 turn out to be a mirage.

I don't feel angry , just defeated. 

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 Bristawl Si quite.

Except that list has aways been the same ,so what's changed?

And yes,things have changed ,dramatically ..

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 Met4Cast I agree ..

I'll pop in here every winter but the tipping point has been reached for me now,there is only so many times you can chase cold and end up with nothing before logic takes over. 

Whatever combo we get ( nino nina qbo etc)  doesn't work for us..

The CC elephant is in the room.

[Winter 2023/24 - A Post Mortem]

 MJB seriously yes ..

Take a look at the graph of temperatures in  European  Winters ..

 

You will see a trend that is impossible to counter..yes there are cold spells are you have pointed out ,but you don't have to be Einstein to see how this will end ref UK cold spells ?

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

I was going to write an obituary on UK winters ..

Anyway, 

00z runs pretty much shutting the door on any High Lat blocking effecting us anytime soon, i for one absolutely do  subscribe to background drivers like ENSO ,SSTS qbo etc etc but after years of being here it's got to the point whereby any combo doesn't fit for uk winter cold.There is always ,well 99% of the time something that goes wrong.

If I had a pound for everytime the eps for example look amazing at day 10 to 15 then downgraded to zilch I'd be a millionaire.

Hopefully we can and will see cold spells but they are now becoming almost non existent.

I'm losing interest at a rate of knots,I'm only here in winter for the cold and to be honest it's becoming a waste of time ...

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 feb1991blizzard

30 -40 days ??

You really are hardcore

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Met4Cast

They are awful.

The really worrying thing is even with decent background signals we end up mild and wet,it's happening year in year out.

There is an elephant in the room ...

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Really poor 00z outputs.

I hope we get some relief by means of a block if anything just to dry us out.

As far as" winter "is concerned however...

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Don yeah Ive had enough now.

Only thing keeping me remotely  interested is EC46.

Each to their own but we need super cold uppers by mid Feb and well,its not going to happen.

The  sheer volume of rainfall  locally this Winter is just diabolical.

 

 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 The Northern Ramper lamppost watching i cant tell you how many hours i spent staring at the streetlight in the late 70s to mid  80s ...

 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

hope it's a good event for as many as possible.

I'm not sure my altitude be as important as expected it will be more the rain shadow effect that spoils things here.

Give me an Easterly every single time, kasim has probably explained very well why Oldham does well in an Easterly.. ( north easterlies work too btw).

 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

 Kasim Awan

Absolutely.

BFTE was absolutely epic locally..

Saddleworth gets hammered in an Easterly flow..

[Model banter and emotions]

 Ali1977 fingers crossed for you mate we've spent so many hours chasing down cold spells with little reward this winter I be chuffed for you if the low ends up south..

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

GEM UKMO look very similar at 144

GEM is a decent run.

 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 sheikhy

I think the 12z runs will be conclusive .

I'm not confident at all.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

EC 6Z is a small move towards GFS ..

The low is tilted badly at 90hrs and milder air is moving north.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

EC 6Z V 0Z @90

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

Looks like BBC raw is following GFS !!

Rain all the way even up here ...

[Model banter and emotions]

God I hate GFS.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

UKMO and EC do NOT follow GFS .