Chris1986
-
Posts
76 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Chris1986
-
-
2 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:
early spring on the cards if the latter part of the GFS were to be believed very much Feb 1990 & 1998 esq.
Jet stream riding very much to the north at the end of the run throwing a deep low to the north of sweden. Any change in the track would be good news. Let's see what the next few runs say
-
2
-
-
ECM seems to be following the GFS with the low heading towards europe , I do see the ecm not having a low to the south of greenland though which should hopefully allow a greater amount of cold air in across the uk, that is if the low follows A similar evolution to the gfs.
-
1
-
-
8 hours ago, Mucka said:
As stated previously any pattern change will likely be triggered by low pressure running SE into Europe so this is what we want to look for first and foremost from around Feb 9/10 (give or take) as this will enhance any upstream amplification and give us a greater chance of staying on the cold side of the trough.
So putting my optimist hat back on (actually it is a replacement for the last one I burned during the last failed cold spell) I will be hoping to see GFS Op output come up with much better charts in future runs and the ensembles to firm up on the derailing of the zonal train (at least temporarily and long enough for some cold)
Mucka,
The 00z seems to had heard you as a nice low fired into Europe drags a good dose of cold air across the UK not quite as south East as we would want but there is always room for improvement
-
2
-
-
Gfs&ecm rather different out at 216hrs, not liking the look of the steamroller on ecm...
-
1 hour ago, MJO said:
Hi- yes there is a sign for SSW but there is no sign for negative AO (I mean a really negative ssw AO values). For example the EC Ensembles are expecting that the AO will go up again after a negative values for a short time !
The idea of a reversal is certainly being flirted with. Apologies for the experimentals I can't get decent 10hpa wind charts.
-
1
-
-
30 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:
I think the tweet I posted is for the week after that.
And @Interitus and @bluearmy that 10hPa is a lot larger value than I thought.
It would appear as if this is the rise before the fall. 1 hpa winds have gone negative at the end of the forcast.
-
The final warming is the last stratospheric warming of the season. After this warming, the stratosphere never recovers to its previous state and the vortex breaks up and dissipates. The final warming often occurs in March or April. Sometimes the stratosphere never recovers from what would otherwise be a mid-winter major warming in January or February, and that warming becomes the final warming. Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball that can see the model runs for the stratosphere past the end of the gfs, thus the gut feeling.
-
I got a niggling feeling that we may be seeing the final throws of a final warming prior to the destruction of the pv until spring / summer only a gut feel
-
3
-
-
It's not all bad From the 00z out in FI land...
-
32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
There are some good points and bad points from tonights outputs.
Good:
Arctic high
Azores high displacing
Colder air at times
Bad:
The left over PV lobes in ne Canada/West Greenland
The PV is likely to want to transfer further west again
Best output of the evening:
The ECM
The media hype section:
The USA had their snowstorm the UK wants its!
Given the complexities of the ECM output later on its going to be hard to replicate a similar set up however the low at 216hrs which drops se from Greenland is of interest, if that was sharper then this could draw a more se flow in ahead of it and it could slip se delivering the UK's own snow drama! This of course is well into the future and the upstream pattern would need to be more amplified so this is just me having a bit of fun! But why should the east coast of the USA always be grabbing the headlines!
Models are notoriously bad at handling laying snow altering boundary layer temps. Hopefully one big dose could change outputs from what could have been to what is!!
-
1
-
-
9 minutes ago, Dennis said:
10Hpa zonal wind changes dramaticly .....
Definitely something to watch!!
-
1
-
-
Intresting winds from the experimentals.
-
1 hour ago, wishingforsnow said:
To be fair at the moment the 'experts' only have a vague idea of what may or may not happen regarding next month.
Cropped post :- in other words professional guessing, via best knoledge and current data of course.
-
I can't see the vortex taking this much of a beating and not going pop. I think by the time we get to the squeeze on the vortex things may be a little more interesting... Hopefully.
-
2
-
-
My thinking is that the PV is going to split it's just a question of when and more importantly where. Until the models get to grips with this I think we will be left in limbo with model data.
-
8 hours ago, Recretos said:
Well, I think I meant right
Meaning: to support a cause only because it is popular to do so. If you 'jump on the bandwagon', you join a growing movement in support of someone or something when that movement is seen to be about to become successful.
I'm fairly sure Recretos has got a phd is meteorology or if not is just a genius either way I'm sure there's not much he doesn't know.... even with English as second language
-
Now this is seriously cool. Live time data cracking the pv in 2013 SSW
-
2
-
-
8 minutes ago, wishingforsnow said:
Yes and regardless of what is happening in the USA amplifying the jet, should a SSW occur it could mean that the cold will arrive over here too. It's just a matter of patience and seeing if and when it will pay off but the periststence of strat warming is what's giving me hope we will see a change unlike 2013-14 when the snowy cold winter for them (which had been cold since the start) meant a mild wet winter for us with no sign of a SSW possibility to rescue us.
We'll I suppose If the polar vortex gets pushed over us It's going to be fricken cold, I particularly like the idea of a north westerly as far as I can see there is every possibility for us to go back into the freezer, if you look at 3 runs on 00z 6z 12z for the same time the difference is considerable and it's all (I think) to do with models handling the SSW.
I agree with you 100%.
-
1
-
-
6 hours ago, wishingforsnow said:
Awesome news
The Model thread is getting ridiculous
how can some users call judgment on the weather for the rest of winter (and summer (!)) based on a set of model runs that are a week to 10 days away.
Its best to look at the big picture. And it looks like a SSW event may be close by in our midst. Hopefully it goes the right way in terms of achieving cold for the UK
Couldn't agree more. Fact is a massive (hopefully) SSW Is underway and 90% have already got the flip flops out for summer. Models are confused as anything at the moment and the mean / control / operational data Is next to useless due to the massive swings in the numerous permutations, my money is definitely not on the mean / control / operational
-
37 minutes ago, phil nw. said:
Nothing to excite the Winter fans in the models for the next week or so with the south westerlies setting in.
The earlier 06z GFS run was clearly a cold one against the majority of the suite.The next week looks rather mild/mild but looking at the ens graph on the 12z run a case could be made for more average conditions after that.
the Op run trends milder after the 27th against the set.
At this stage i wouldn't say more than that but we are still seeing the warming of the Strat.and forecasts of mean zonal winds decreasing over the next 10 days.This should translate into raising Polar HT anomalies in time and we can see a trend for this developing in the CPC graph as the AO index starts to slide into -ve territory.
At this stage no strong signal for cold but maybe enough signs in the ens. that we are not entering a protracted mild setup ala December and with a chance of another pattern change early February as the vortex continues to warm.
Models I believe are confused at the moment, evolution to a genral consensus will have to be a waiting game. We are currently seeing various permutations based on best guess. I hope over the coming days thr models will get a more defined grasp of strat trop strat coupling and the SSW. I do believe however we will not see the corrallation in the models until the last minute. Fingers crossed and all that jazz
-
1
-
-
35 minutes ago, karyo said:
I am puzzled by your comment! You have obviously cherry picked the 'negative' comments. It was only last week when I was the first to comment on the 12z showing a major warming.
There are plenty of comments here when things are looking promising but then it goes quiet when the warming doesn't materialise to the extent that it was showing before which may lead to inexperienced members thinking that it is still due to happen. For example, many people in the models output discussion thread are basing their hopes in the SSW.
My comments are always based on fact whether you like them or not. :-)
Personally I think it makes it more interesting the split in the warming. Like a boxer working the body waiting for that knock out punch the warming appears to be giving the pv a bit of a battering and previous runs cannot be discounted with regards to theme. Reality is we've been tracking this for weeks now and it would appear as if the wheels are definitely in motion albeit destination unknown, strat is currently warming and the strat trop strat coupling is in motion. The guys in here (the cleaver ones, not me) are like the winter ninjas tracking the cold down wherever it may hide
a good dose of hope helps too
Now:-
A beating:-
End of run (still working the body) :-
Either way the pv is in the corner and on the ropes. Looking forward seeing the next few rounds over the coming weeks
-
1
-
-
Gents where can I find the temp propagation charts from strat down to 1000hpa? Recretos can you help?
-
5 minutes ago, Timmytour said:
I'd urge caution on the mention of the likes of Cohen and promises of narnia prospects in the future. Many's a mild winter I've spent expectantly waiting for the change to come as heralded by those who have interpret his forecasts.
In reality the winters of 2009/10, 2010/11 and 2012/13 were pretty good for cold lovers in the UK. And so memories of those alluding to such prospects that we ended up enjoying are enhanced. While memories that they forecast the same thing every year and are more often wrong are firmly suppressed by the hope that winters eternalI still reminisce about 2010, I can only live in hope and look for the cold to come
GFS have been running the warming theme for a long time now In the strat, it's becoming exciting that it would appear to be coming to fruition.
From the below you can see the strat starting to warm. Exciting times!!
I am aware that the position of the PV is critical to establishing a cold theme for the UK but according to current model data, at the moment it looks good for us.
-
1 minute ago, Severe Siberian icy blast said:
All well and good Chris posting charts but without an explanation all that will do is confuse members who are learning .
Do you no what that means ?
Cheers
A Few posts up i posted a link to a full explanation of the SSW and it's effects Dr Choen is much better at explaining this than me. And as long as we continue to see the pv distorted or displaced I'm a happy man. I think at the end of the runs we are starting to see the effects of the trop strat trop coupling and it will be exciting to see this develop. I unfortunately can't get the charts For the temperature propagation from strat to trop which would show the temp changes in a better format.
how can some users call judgment on the weather for the rest of winter (and summer (!)) based on a set of model runs that are a week to 10 days away.
Model Output Discussions 18z 31/01/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Unfortunately we are not yet seeing a reversal of the zonal mean 60n 10 hpa winds... yet... 1 hpa winds are due to go negative however according to ecm so not a technical SSW but we will have to see what develops.