Kieran
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Posts posted by Kieran
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A much better UKMO run this afternoon
+144 below:
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Great winter for my neck of the woods. Had several sizeable snow events and must have seen 20 or so days with falling snow. Solid 8/10 winter for me and I too think this will be the start of a run of colder winters. Exciting times ahead ?❄️☃️?
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Absolutely caking it down here and adding to the accumulations from yesterday. Best winter since 2010 here...
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Some heavier precipitation is slowly heading towards the midlands so i’d expect it to be here around 8pm. Links in well with the met office forecast so the heaviest of the snow should be yet to come. ❄️❄️❄️
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From looking at the radar it looks like the heavier snow starts to kick in around 5pm onwards. Looking good for Birmingham westwards especially. Seems like it should get more intense through the evening and may last till around midnight. But even in the eastern midlands there could be accumulating snow too. Anyone want to make a guess of how much each part of the region will get? ❄️❄️❄️
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2 minutes ago, pegg24 said:
Not looking good for the East Midlands at the moment.
BBC national forecast has snow pushing up all the way to Northern England by Friday night. We will all get a pasting if that’s correct. It’s either sticking to its guns or very slow at updating their graphics...
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3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
weather on bbc website looked okayish, need a E shift for both systems
but I reckon Telford to be buried tomorrow
The latest BBC graphics are still showing the same as they were yesterday, bringing Thursdays low front as far as the central midlands. I think even the West Midlands could see a good covering from this as it seems to linger around for several hours.
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Then it goes onto show the Synoptics for Friday once again bringing the snow front through the Midlands:
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3 minutes ago, Staffordshire said:
But of a worrying trend from the 12z's... struggling to being Friday's low into our area.
The low eventually gets all the way to Scotland on this run. Hoping the models settle on this kind of solution which would bring a snow event to our region.
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Some snow possibly next week? ?
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We had about 15 minutes of drizzle and then 45 minutes of moderate snow which sadly didn't settle. Then it stayed cold and dry throughout the day.
Tomorrow looks horrible but Sunday may give us occasional snow showers if they blow far enough inland from the Cheshire gap...
(GFS is probably overdoing it though)
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7 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:
IMO I`ve not seen such a cold atlantic as this so staying really chilly factor,spring on hold this year.
Wow this is cold too storm.
http://weather.unisys.com/gfs/gfs.php?inv=0&plot=850®ion=eu&t=6e
Ive only been weather model watching for a few years and i've never seen north westerly winds in winter blow widespread -8 across the country like they are doing this year.
Look at Sunday night. -8 uppers widespread and even -10 into Scotland from a North Westerly flow.
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Anywhere may catch some snow showers on Sunday afternoon as shown on the chart below.
North western areas most favored but showers could blow well inland if the wind is strong enough...
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So far this winter has probably been the best since 2012/13. Here in the midlands we've had 10 plus occasions of falling snow, massive snow event in early December and it's felt pretty damn cold even though the CET might not do it justice. Not to mention there is an imminent SSW happening which may bring further spells of cold and snow into the rest of February and maybe into March?
What does everyone else think of this winter so far???
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Had a small dusting of snow here in Birmingham. The radar looks quiet now for the next couple of hours but the next band of light snow is slowly heading southwards from Yorkshire. The BBC weather graphics show the precipitation right back over us at 6pm so could be a little more to come later...
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GFS 12z rolling out and is still showing rain turning back to snow on Friday morning across most of England.
It has been consistently showing this run after run. Is there a chance of this happening or is it another case of the GFS precipitation charts being all over the place?
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Looking at the latest charts and graphics I’m still expecting snow showers tomorrow morning/afternoon but mostly in the West Midlands area.
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Just now, markw2680 said:
No it’s the milder air now unfortunately, there will now be a rapid thaw
That’s a shame. Some models didn’t have it turning to rain until 2/3pm. Even the BBC had it as snow until 1pm. Oh well i’m still grateful for my 2cm covering ?
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Icy rain here in Birmingham. Any chance of it turning back to snow in heavier bursts perhaps?
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Snowing heavily now in Birmingham. Radar looking great for the Midlands....
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Haven’t posted on Netweather for quite a while but I think our region has been really lucky this winter for snow.
In Birmingham we’ve had plenty of occasions of falling snow, the heaviest snow event (Sunday 10th December) for atleast 4 Years, a Boxing Day snow event and the whole of February to go.... Easily the best winter since 2012/2013.
On the talk of tomorrows snow to rain event, the BBC have upgraded the wintry potential for our region and are now showing snow (rather than sleet) starting off which then may turn into a slushy mix in the early afternoon. Looking good for a few CM’s IMO....
<——— Here’s what the BBC are showing for tomorrow morning
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1 minute ago, DIS1970 said:
Just a quickie, local BBC forecast has temp to stay at +1C here until around 10pm sort of time, but it is currently at -1.4C and still falling.
Yes the temperatures are lower than forecast and precipitation (heading our way) is earlier than planned. Makes me think that our region could see some wintry showers for atleast an hour or two in the early hours before turning to rain. Birmingham northwards anyway.... anyone thinking the same?
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Here's a question to some of you with more knowledge than I:
If the 18z run was to verify with mostly a slack cool north westerly flow - what sort of CET would December be up to around the 10th? Seems like this is the favoured pattern now amongst the models.
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Atlantic still blocked up to day 10.
Quite rare to see Synoptics like this for early December...
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Attempt on a Greenland high at +192. Not sure if it will make it...
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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Country wide snow event showing again on the GFS for Tuesday. How likely to happen do you all think this is???
