Kieran
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Posts posted by Kieran
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The afternoon run of the GFS is rolling out now. Seems like another upgrade to me with the cold coming in much faster than on the 6z.
+174 below:
Chilly/cold bonfire night for all if true....
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The whole of the country is going to feel cold if the 6z GFS is to be believed
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Long range forecaster Terry Scholey early winter thoughts have now been added to Gavs Weather Vids.
http://www.gavsweathervids.com/terryscholey.html
To paraphrase it, he thinks there could very well be a cold start to winter but still to early to be sure....
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Some chilly seasonal weather ahead of us according to the 12z GFS...
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For the areas of the midlands that are seeing snow: The main band of precipitation is coming down from the north and should reach us by 9pm. If anything the air should be slightly colder then so maybe a covering or so could be on the cards...
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Been snowing in Birmingham for the last 30 minutes or so, been quite heavy actually. Settling on cars but not on pavements as its too wet from earlier.
Better than I thought we'd get. But shows its cold enough to snow, hopefully the radar blows some more of the white stuff into our region.
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BBC weather has my area at 1 degrees maximum for both Tuesday and Wednesday. Coldest days of the winter for me then if true. Better make the most of it before the mild air comes back in at the weekend....
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High extending into greenland at 192, could be an attempt at an undercut. Interesting trend emerging
Edit: Atlantic wins out at 210 but wouldn't take much for the Atlantic to get blocked off and that cold to our east to nudge our way.
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It's fizzling out across the Midlands, can't see much other than very light sleet or snow for your region tonight
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WOW HEAVY SNOW...
... In Lapland. Rain in Birmingham
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1 minute ago, Gord said:
This has the same feel as events last winter. The north has the colder conditions so has the snow while we get the rain. However, might be 2 bitter pills to swallow his time as east of here might get better conditions too. The luck that the Black Country got during winters 2009-2013 looks like it has well gone.
Our climate sucks and I don't mean just for the midlands area. The weather the UK generally gets is horrible: Cool wet summers with mild wet winters. That's about the worst combination you can get....
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6 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:
Yh that's what the me shows it turning at around 9pm but to my eyes the ppn is really struggling
Yeah it looks very patchy at the minute. I'm starting to think that a covering at best Is the best we can hope for. The heavy stuff should be arriving by about 7pm ish. If it is still raining by then I'll just about give up with this so called "snow event"
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Drizzly rain here too, was sleet 10 minutes ago so shows we are just on the margins of rain and snow. The temps should lower as we get into this evening so should turn more wintry as the heavier stuff comes down to our region
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Rain turning to sleet in Central Birmingham now. Few flakes mixing in with the rain, hopefully it turns into snow....
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Raining in Birmingham. Seems to be just on the borders between rain and sleet... oh well. Better chance will be for Sat night/ Sun morning and for Monday.
Sunday Morning:
Monday:
A covering for all of our region if charts are true
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Great GFS 12z update in my neck of the woods...
Covering of snow on Sunday Morning
Then something more significant on Monday...
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Snowing in Shropshire, hope it falls as snow as this lively precipitation band is poised to pass through Birmingham
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1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:
165m not too bad but not great, sleet/wet snow best guess, Thurs 8pm to Sat 8am, our best chances, and with GFS upgrading cold, it will be there a long time, all ice days next week
Thank you. I'm sure we will both see atleast something wintry in the next 48 hours even if it is a sleety mix.
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Just dipped under 4c here in Birmingham. Do you think it will remain all rain overnight and into tomorrow? I was hoping we would atleast get sleet
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Could anyone give me their opinion on if Birmingham could see any sleet or snow overnight and into tomorrow? Or will it remain all rain?
Thanks in advance
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Could be a snow event on Monday if charts are true...
1am Monday Morning precipitation (mostly snow) moving into Wales and into England
7am, Snow continuing to move eastwards into Midlands. Snow down in Southern England aswell
1pm Monday Afternoon, snow across most of the country stalling mainly in Wales/ Midlands
Further snow across England and Wales all the way till Monday evening.
Wales and the Midlands in particular would be in the firing line on this run. Exciting times...
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GFS 12z showing band of moderate rain pushing eastwards starting off as rain as it reaches the midlands in the early hours...
Rain turning to sleet and snow as the cold air mixes in with the precipitation around rush hour. (This run puts Birmingham in particular in the firing line...
Then turning the precipitation to nearly all snow in most places albeit small accumulations as it clears away to the east....
Whatever happens its very different to what the BBC are showing. Hopefully the GFS ends up the correct outcome!
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Thursday and Friday showing snow showers for almost all parts of England and Wales according to the current GFS. BBC weather showing mainly rain and sleet for the same time period. Hmm... Could be a nice covering by the end of the week in many areas
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GFS 18z run probably the best run of the day for prolonging the cold? Cant believe i'm saying this but hopefully the other models will follow the GFS!
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1am Monday Morning precipitation (mostly snow) moving into Wales and into England
7am, Snow continuing to move eastwards into Midlands. Snow down in Southern England aswell
1pm Monday Afternoon, snow across most of the country stalling mainly in Wales/ Midlands
Further snow across England and Wales all the way till Monday evening.
Model Output Discussions 12z 01/09/2016
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
18z is another good run for cold for all parts. 240+ onwards is setting up another reload of cold (similar to the 12z). I hope this pattern continues tomorrow...