Kieran
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Posts posted by Kieran
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https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/2568551/britain-to-be-hit-by-eight-inches-of-snow-from-wednesday/
QuoteArmy on standby as Britain prepares to be hit by EIGHT INCHES of snow from tomorrow
8 inches?!
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12z GFS showing potential for snow showers to move south-eastwards into the Midlands. If this trend continues I think many more of us could see some wintry showers on Thursday and into Friday.
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Snow showers drifting into the Midlands (especially the West Midlands) on Thursday evening according to the 12z GFS. Considering the winds will be strong I don't think it's out of the question to think that much of the Midlands could see some decent snow showers....
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Snow again shown for Thursday. I wonder if it will be as widespread as the 12z GFS is suggesting:
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3 minutes ago, IDO said:
Look at the higher res version as it will show that the snow is on high ground until it reaches the far SE. All subject to change:
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfs/royaume-uni/precipitations-hd/3h.htm
High res still shows widespread snow for most of the Midlands and the South.
We shall see...
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1 minute ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
They don't want to put it out there so quickly as we know how unpredictable our weather is.
From past experience the GFS precipitation charts often overdoes the snow risk. But as it's only a few days out it makes you think many of us could get a dusting of snow on New Years Day, I'd happily take that
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12z GFS showing Snow showers for most of England and Wales on New Years Day. The met office are just saying wintry showers over the hills though. Hmmmm who to believe?
+84:
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Back edge snow for most parts (except for the far south) on New Years Day shown on the GFS. Something to keep an eye on....
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Just now, Banbury said:
Not with these temps
The uppers say otherwise...
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5 minutes ago, khodds said:
It's A WEEK away though.. surely we all know by now that it's unlikely to verify?! It's great to see but I really can't see it happening to be honest.. sorry
Very true. Or the Synoptics showing on Christmas Eve could be pushed back 12 hours or so and that would bring a white Christmas for most of the UK.
Exciting times
But yeah models can and probably will change, but to see widespread snow at +150 hours isn't too shabby
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3 minutes ago, Ravelin said:
Yep, nothing wintry showing in the reliable.
Nothing to see here, everyone move along please.
6 hours later...
Snow for pretty much the whole of the UK (Bar the far south)
BOOM!
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5 minutes ago, snowice said:
Snow showers on Xmas eve then it's mixed out later in the day then it returns. Xmas day evening according to gfs12z
Snow for Scotland and parts of Northern England in the early hours of Christmas Day too.
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Widespread snow for most of the UK at Christmas Eve on the 12z.
BANK!
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Just now, Tom Jarvis said:
looks like the ECM has taken a step towards the UKMO
Indeed however there seems to be lots of energy over Greenland at +120 on the ECM which isn't there on the UKMO. Probably will spoil things in the next frame but we shall see...
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ECM and UKMO at 120....
ECM looks good so far. We just need to see if that atlantic low can dive south in the next frame and undercut similar to the UKMO.
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Up to +96 on the GFS and there seems to be a slight shift westwards of the Atlantic energy on this run. Also more of a negative tilt so this is hopefully a good sign....
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1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:
A 'Thrilla in Manilla' or a 'Rumble in The Jungle'?
Haha WOOPS.
Up to +114 and the secondary low seems much flatter and more willing to sink than on the earlier GFS run. Very positive run so far...
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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:
Here we go then - 30 mins to another GFS fanfare
This is the time. The time for the undercut -
The model should be able to resolve this trough disruption at 120 now..
Up to +90 and it seems like an undercut much more achievable on this run.
6z:
12z:
Much more energy heading under the high....
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BRRRR....
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Beautiful chart at +300 hours...
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12z looking like an improvement to my eyes.
Better chance of WAA advection at 156 hours. Now if only that low around Greenland would just dive southwards...
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A comparison of the GFS and ECM at day 6:
Better 18z so far.... Although not quite there, it seems like the GFS is slowly getting to the pattern the ECM is showing. Hope it continues into tomorrow!
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Much better heights into Scandanavia at 108 hours than on the 6z:
6z :
12z:
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:
I would take the 12z and thought so from quite early on in this 18z, 12z is miles better.
I agree but both runs give us a good shot of cold with similar uppers. The 12z prolongs the cold for abit longer though. However both runs give us a second shot of cold so both runs are great IMO.
The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion
in Regional
Posted
I wonder if the Midlands could see a suprise on Thursday. Below is the BBC forecast map for Thursday, as you can see the channel low is going northwards and you'd presume as is meets the colder air around the Midlands the precipitation would turn wintry. By the next frame the precipitation is all gone so it's hard to tell but definitely something to keep a close eye on...