[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 lawrenk

Indeed -- and the thing that worries me is the annual occurrence of excessive heat building over West Africa. . . 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 Floatyligh: If it rains any more it'll be enough to water down Keir Starmer's key policies. Oh, hang on? 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Oh great; it's turned to heavy, cold rain! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

We have sleet!

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 lassie23

Beats looking daft! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

Anyway, you can always predict when days of knee-jerk reactions and wildly optimistic ramping have turned out to be less than accurate, it'll all be the fault of the ECM, the GFS or the UKMET. . . When, at the end of the day, our weather is not beholden to anything or anyone, but to itself. 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just as the experts in the MAD thread are saying the Met. Office will need to adjust their warning they have: if you watch this week's Deep Dive, they've shunted it north a tad, in response to the latest model runs. . . 

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 danm

But the Madsters already have their measuring sticks out! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 NewEra21

But that's not the ECM's fault; neither models nor the Met. Office makes the weather. . .

[Moans, ramps and banter]

I think today's MAD thread treatises can be summarised thus:

North a bit; south a bit; west a bit; east a bit. Bernie, the bolt: 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 raz.org.rain My newspaper has snow at 8-9C on Saturday. I guess warm snow is better than cold rain, eh? 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 RJ Bingham: All a bit SNAFU -- what with Day 10 being its usual brilliant self and all that? 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 Froze were the Day: A poonami?

[Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects]

 WYorksWeathe: I'm seldom ironic with AGW -- you'd be amazed at the number of times callers to radio stations cite the MWP as proof that AGW is all a scam.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

I've just checked my local BBC forecast and, lo and behold, not a single snow symbol out to Feb. 17. My level of excitement is therefore not as high as the Madsters!   

[Moans, ramps and banter]

A very good week is in store for many: 

[Global Surface Air & Sea Temperatures: Current Conditions and Future Prospects]

Decoding the Weather Machine: a very good, and readily understandable PBS/Nova special:

 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 Wingman Blu: And what does an early spring in Pennsylvania mean for us? How the flock would I know!  

And I'm also glad that my address isn't in Gobblers Knob -- which sounds like an STD! 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 raz.org.rain: And that's not all that's about to be thrown out! 

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 Ali1977: And, what with the modern propensity for going from one extreme to the other (19.9C in January being one such extreme) I wouldn't be all that surprised were it to verify, in one form or another.

[Moans, ramps and banter]

 RJ Bingham: A 1947 redux is on the cards -- again! 

[February 2024 C.E.T. and EWP contests]

I tried to make sense of the latest iteration of the quote menu, but as it's changed umpteen times in the past few days, I haven't a clue as to what's going on. . . Other than to suggest 'shades of 50 million years BC'! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

 snowblind The Great Ellon Blizzard of 2024 is nailed on!

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

 MJB  MJB In the medium term, yes; in the longer term, no. But then it never does, that far out.

[Model Output Discussion - Spring Has Sprung]

This week's Ten-Day Trend has something for everyone but, by mid-February, confidence drops off: