[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

You know something guys and gals I know some are sick of this long drawn out chase and especially if it fails to deliver snow in your areas..its been that much of a big thing...we even had a Scott Ingham day on when it lands.. but for me and I'm sure some will be getting sick of my long drawn out chases god forbid! But I'm growing in confidence that end of month into February could be much more potent and successful than the one we are heading into.

Mjo on the rise again and further warming of an already weakened pv I feel could hit us the next time at the same time! For the met to favour blocking and NE/E winds shows we are getting not a lot of oomph from the zonal train.. displaced jet and solid El Nino backing coupled with EQBO are going to be strengthening to colder sypnotics option in my opinion!

Next week good suprise snowfalls will crop up at short notice...BUT..dont be to downhearted if you miss out as I strongly feel this is merely just the first bite of a very big cherry..and guess what? This cherry is getting seriously ripe for the plucking..before sooner or later simply falling off the tree and exploding!

A little fruit terminology for ya there folks  

In the short term do have a gr8 weekend be lamppost ready next week.

Also I've got my Dad's ashes back today where he Will reside upon the mantle piece for as long as I live...hey dad love ya always and I know you would want snow as much as anybody...have a word with the big boss in the sky and see what you can do for us.

Much love and respect as always peeps.

Well Matt, however long this year's 'chase' ends up being, it cannae possibly be as fruitless as the 2018-19 version was! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

20 minutes ago, offerman said:

Fantastic post highlighting improvements that can be made with modelling charts. Absolute pleasure reading your posts backed up by all that experience.  Thank you for your input

I'm surprised no-one has mentioned chaos theory -- even some of the most basic deterministic equations behave chaotically when iterated many times. And, then, there's the inherent complexity to think about? 

[Moans, ramps and banter]

40 minutes ago, Bristawl Si said:

Erm...that was a week plus ago. Yes, flooded props will still have their effects for months, but why live beside a river? Or why do useless environ secs and councils allow new builds on nature's flood plains?

Oh, and by the way a proper deep freeze is way more damaging than localised floods. I mean "DEEP". When pipes burst in an area affected by a proper deep freeze it affects 000s more properties than localised flooding.

Oh, and another "by the way" i thought guilt tripping was discouraged in here. So, "useless" cold without snow is just pointless, but costs money for increased energy useage.

All the 'why do peeps live on fertile flood-plains?' stuff would all be solved, were London to be teleported onto the Cairngorms Massif. . . The ptarmigans wouldn't like it, though! 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

16 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Spot on that mate

We want inches of snow though not mere cm's.... .

 

Check out marks post 

I prefer to measure my snow in FEET! 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

7 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

The GFS 06z was the first run to show any snowfall next week on the operational in my back yard.

temps getting down to -7 by the end of the week, probably colder if there is snow cover 

It must be Model of The Month, then! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Oh dear, the 'pub run' is coming up trumps. Why is it called the 'pub run' again?

[Scottish weather discussion - Spring 2023/24]

22 minutes ago, lorenzo said:

And the media, if you could call this channel actual media.. go wild. Gotta love AI.

 

Yes indeed!

George and the Haggis:    Some folks might not like AI, but it sure beats trawling through Google Images for something useful. . . Meanwhile, my twenty-one years in the Highlands did teach me one thing: It usually snows up there long before it does down here! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Well, I used to think that accurate weather modelling would have to wait for quantum computers. But, now, I'm not so sure: 

 

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

1 minute ago, Derecho said:

It is back for me now as well strangely enough!

They must be trying to burst aneurysms in Net Weather members' brains!

[Met Office and BBC Weekly/Monthly Outlooks]

15 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Not for me it hasn’t.. 

TBF, it disappeared for me too.

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

2 minutes ago, Tom Quintavalle said:

Morning all, again.

Shall I really jinx our Snow chances next Week, by attempting the foolhardy Synoptic "pattern matching".

The Synoptic chart on the left, is from Tues. 8th December, 1981.

As I'm an old f--t, I remember the December 18981 event, vividly.

I lived in Camberwell S.E. London. at the time. Heavy Rain transitioned to heavy Snow, during the early Morning Rush Hour, and even though Camberwell is an Inner London location and the ground was very wet from the heavy Rain that had been falling for a couple of hours, surprisingly the Snow settled quickly once the intensity kicked in.

It still remains the "best" Rain > Snow event, I've witnessed. This surge of bitter Arctic air that Morning was the catalyst for ushering in the very Wintry December, of 1981.

On the right, is the European [ECMWF] Model as it sees the Synoptic situation in the late Morning, next Tuesday [16th]:

    /     / 

There you go, I've really jinxed our Region's Snow chances, now!!

Regards,

Tom Q. 

How's your Tardis, Tom? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

The GFS 06Z looks okay to me. . .  

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

I wonder which iterations of Toy Story we'll be treated to today. . . 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

3 minutes ago, Roadrunner said:

Having been a member here since 2006 and a lurker since before then, I have now trained myself not to get up or down with each model run. Plenty of time yet for things to get better, or worse but remember, it's only weather! 

Myself and @nick sussex remember the BBC snow watch days with Bill Farkin and his grebes - that was painful! PS Nick keep the prozac order on hold - we're not there yet! 

I wonder which way they are facing, today! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

6 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

A worrying trend. The ECM has backed the GFS in sending the low a bit too far north and then we end up back to a westerly  pattern. What's  the betting they have  arrived  at a consensus  now. If this is the case you'll likely see a change in the UKMO text forecast 

After one or two 'rogue' runs? 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

  Ah, just what I wanted, in my Xmas stocking! 

[Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?]

Here's this week's Met. Office Ten-Day Trend, which mostly cites the GFS and ECM. It's nae three bad! 

 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Gowon said:

Good, thanks - happy to have seen some snow.. You having a drink?

I never touch the stuff! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Darkcloud said:

Is it going to be any good for snow for us though? Northerlies aren't usually great for us down here

I've no idea! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

Just now, Gowon said:

How you doing, Pete, did you get to wear your fleece today?

I did indeed. And now I am a tad worse for wear, me old mucker. And there's been no snow since my last update. How are you? 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

50 minutes ago, Snow tyre said:

Well, everyone's very nice here so draw up a chair and feel welcome.

Meanwhile, another EVENT is coming next week. What -- another one! 

[Northwest Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 onwards]

14 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

 

I wonder if that is what produced this?

Photo is around these parts Feb 1969 but I do not have the exact date.

Maybe the twelfth, as that was when the polar low hit. I think! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

This is how the UK Met. expect the next week to pan out:

Phew!! Sorry mods! 

[SE, London and East Anglia Weather Discussion - Dec 2023 on]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

DP's have crashed in the last hour. Down to -4c here in Southend which wont help. Very dry air!

I think the same thing has happened up here; but the downside is that the clouds have flattened out. And got thinner?

[Favourite Januaries]

I guess my favourite Januarys would be 1963 and 1985.