[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Usual panic in here I see. Personally, I like a nice “wedgy setup rather than the usual wishbone Northerly. Jet  gradually pushing south spinning up snowy surprises. What’s not to like

[Summer 2023 chat]

3 hours ago, seb said:

To be fair the South or more accurately the Southeast has been lucky throughout. We’ve barely had any rain here apart from Friday evening for about 30 minutes. It’s bl**dy windy but mostly sunny and that’s how it’s been all last week (less windy before yesterday).

while I’d like heat, I can’t complain. Very useable weather and nice temperature to sleep.

Pretty much the same here in West Suffolk. Friday was wet and there been the odd light shower, but on the whole, this month has been a nice, usable Summer Month. The ground could use some sustained rain. Looking at the Models, it’s not looking like it’s getting much. Harsh for the West and North West though.

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

Just goes to show what a feed of Continental Air coupled with the strong  June Sunshine can do for temps. 
 

This didn’t age too well

 

[Model Output Discussion - 15th March onwards]

18 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Near perfect model output in the 10day timeframe for early summer. Given some of the flip flopping we’ve seen to see almost unanimous agreement at t168hrs is a good sign. Bring on the warmth. 

Is the curse of June 13th about to be lifted though.

[Model Output Discussion - A cold start to Spring?]

To be honest, I see plenty of potential towards the back end of next Week. We needs the Trough to drop sufficiently South before the Atlantic Front rolls in. It’s not the end if it drops a little to the East. A disrupting Low tugging in low Dewpoints from the Continent is often a Jackpot recipe if you are partial to a good dump of Snow. Would rather have that than a Cold Northerly with just Coastal Shower Wishbone stuff

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

First flakes here in West Suffolk. Plenty more to come by the looks of things. Temp -1.8, 

[Model Output Discussion - the cold has arrived]

What with the P.V on Holiday for the foreseeable and Low Pressure systems bowling along on top of the Jet, it’s only a matter of time before a convective Easterly/North Easterly sets up. Difficult to call a specific Day of course. Possibly some time towards the back end of next Week. Enjoy it, whatever it does
 

[Model Output Discussion - moving into Winter]

A precursor to a SSW possibly later into Dec. Would be typical of our luck that it takes a Month to get a proper cold flow established, only for the whole thing to be shuffled up with a QRSSW.

Still, it’s nice to have a Ticket in the British Winter draw even if it does turn out to be a duffer

[Winter 2022-23 early thoughts - general chat]

Worth remembering that what would be called an “a good effort” by the Long Rangers, could have pressure Systems several Hundred Miles out come the Spring Post-mortem. On a Global scale, I imagine they are Barking up the right Tree. Locality though, may be a totally different Kettle of Fish

  

[SE, London & EA - Weather Discussion]

Pretty much constant Thunder and Lightning here from around 3.30am until 07:30 ish. Most of it elevated other than one huge Lightning Bolt that scared the s**t out of Me and the Dogs. The Cloud to Cloud Lightning was pretty much constant throughout.

All in all, not bad at all

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

11 minutes ago, MATTWOLVES said:

Haverhill at 38C...its within range....any members from around this area?

My Home Town. Fortunately, I’m 1300ft up in Exmoor this Week. Not that it’s overly cool up here Today.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

Woke up this Morning to welcome in this possibly historic Day and it was Raining. Don’t remember a forecast for Showers Today. It was pretty Thundery out there Last Night, but mostly dry. Interesting.  

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

1 hour ago, Mark Smithy said:

I'm keeping an eye on how the GFS 6z max temps compare today with the reality:

Meanwhile I've just noticed that GFS is suggesting that the hottest place in Britain tomorrow will be ... Exmoor at 34C. That seems quite extraordinary to me?

And then a 39C over Exmoor on Monday. Really?????!

Edit. In fact, today as of 13.30 RM Chivenor, edge of Exmoor, is the hottest place in the UK so maybe they are onto something.

I friggin hope not I was kind of hoping my 1400ft was going to spare Me from the worst of it It is hot up here Today though. Hotter than was Forcast.

[Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives]

32 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Previous years is easy - none, unless you count the NAVGEM.

Not quite. The mighty Arpege had a 40c one 18z run

 

[Storm Eunice - 18th February]

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

8 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

 

I am not saying that the UK seeing anything as extreme as 1947 is likely this year; I would say that the chances of that are as low as a winter like 1962-63 being just around the corner in the next few years, but it would be very disappointing if low solar activity and easterly QBO do not help the UK see a significant cold spell manifest itself this winter, and if this winter does not bring a significant cold spell to the UK then serious questions must have to be raised as to if the UK's weather patterns have changed significantly even since 2013, and if it is ever possible for a prolonged spell of freezing cold to develop in the UK ever again.

I remember a certain, well respected Poster, say that it would be extremely unlikely there would be a below average Winter Month again. Then Dec 2010 happened!

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

2 hours ago, Ali1977 said:

Definitely something brewing for coldies, the GFS is just toying with the ideas. Hopefully we will get a decent day 10 ECM - as in a route to cold

Azores Low. Now that would put a Cat amongst the Pigeons. Ideal if you like UK cold a Week or Two later. Not so great if you have booked a Winter Sun Holiday there

[Model discussion: Hunt for cold - The start of 2022]

I hope this forecast High isn’t like the one we had pre Xmas. Constant Drizzle ? It was probably the wettest High I remember?

[Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion]

If I’m honest. I would prefer a dry Winter if not overly cold.  Plenty of crisp, Sunny Days  would go down a treat.

I fear I may be disappointed this Season.  I think possibly a continuation of the general pressure patterns we have had since Spring. Lows approaching from a more Southerly direction, bumping into cold air! The North May get away with a Sunnier Winter overall. Much as it’s been all Summer really.

We will see

[Early run up to Winter 2021/2022 discussion]

Looking at early signs from a Nature point of view,  prepping is taking place everywhere if you know what to look for. With Gas and fuel prices about to go through the roof, Sod’s law would indicate it’s not going to be a mild one.

dec/early Jan I would punt being pretty frigid overall

[Storms and Convective discussion - 25th July 2021 onwards]

Drizzle here in West Suffolk. Temp 17.8. Humidity 87%. Feels very Muggy. Good luck all

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

First pic looking East towards Bury St Edmunds. The other North towards Cambridge.  Temp 28.7 Humidity 55%. Wind variable. Possibilities but nothing like this time Yesterday.

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

15 hours ago, Supacell said:

Picked up an intense storm between Stamford and Corby early evening time. Lots of thunder, occasional visible lightning, the odd big CG with explosive thunder that nearly gave me heart attack and crazy rain, winds and hail. Not as big hail as the storms in Essex but still a good marble sized.

Impressive Pics there Bud

[Storms and Convective discussion - 16th June 2021 onwards]

Thunder and lightning pretty much constant here and has been for the last couple of hours. 15 miles South of Cambridge. Intensifying as I type. You lot London and Kent have a nice little present from Suffolk on it’s way. You will thank Me

[South East, London and East Anglia regional discussion - 8th February onwards]

Just measured our Snow here in West Suffolk. After 3 days of frequent Showers and a biting Frost last Night, we have the grand total of  nope - still swearing A**. Going to take the Dog out in a bit and frolic in all that lovely  Frost

Glad most got something especially 40 Miles East of here. You need a very special set of circumstances here for a decent fall of Snow. Trouble is, nobody knows what these are!

I can see one more chase this Season in 10 Days or so. Who’s in?