[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

4 hours ago, kold weather said:

Probably about the most optimistic model I've seen yet from the 18z suite, most models are showing significantly more patchy snow cover for our neck of the region to the west of the thread region.

I suspect the map that Nick F showed earlier from the 18z UKV is about right, patchy accumulation to the west of London, some areas may get lucky and get accumulations, some will get nothing at all. All luck of the draw probably. Any decent altitude will help for Saturday night.

Tuesday is becoming a slight worry, the wind was good for a streamer BUT if the LP to our south gets too close it will switch the winds more ESE and hut the streamer down, and we'll have just a cloudy cold day instead in across the whole SE. Remote chance it ends up bumping into the southern coastal counties but lets be honest, when was the last time we had one of those types of lows, I cant remember it in living memory to be honest!

One Mans loss and all that. We tend to do better in an E/SEly here in West Suffolk due to the longer Sea Track.

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

Have a look on RainToday at the far North of Scotland. They are in the Easterly now. Look at those 2 Streamers kicking off. That’s the sort of thing for us down here in a few Days

[South East and East Anglia Weather Discussion February 2021 onwards]

I don’t think enough is being made of the Wind strength Sunday into Monday. As the Snow looks to be of the Powder variety. Those complaining of a measly 5-10 Cms could have a whole lot more building up in places. 

One of those places is under my Front Door

Seriously though, bare this in mind if your planning a trip out. Hope you all get what your dreaming about. I’m not keen on the stuff myself but I expect here 120mts up in rural Suffolk, I will have to grin and bare it.

[Model output discussion - is the beast awakening?]

11 minutes ago, chris55 said:

What was the famous John McEnroe quote........ I don't even need to say it! 

I did not slurp my Orange-juice?  

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

4 hours ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

 

Anyone that uses the word “Definitely” when talking about the Weather is either a Time Traveller or just over confident in themselves.

[Model output discussion - into the last third of January]

5 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Well the refreshed MetO outlook certainly doesn't follow the GFS with the emphasis on wintryhazards and any less cold weather reserved for the south.

With the ENScso certain of milder weather next week the Met update is surprising.

Then again how often do the ENS predict a cold spell, the Met is having none of it and the outcome is no cold spell!

Let's see what things look like once the cold northerly gets established.

Andy

I think the Cold Northerly is where all this will end up. Something like the spell with the infamous M11 fiasco. Can’t remember the Year. Later ECM charts are on it and so now are the Met. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

48 minutes ago, sebastiaan1973 said:

I wouldn't consider it small adjustments. The realy cold is far away in the north (east).

A small adjustment to the Artic High would push the Jet further South. Your Chart is way out in the future. 

[Model Output Discussion - Snow for some, but what else is in store?]

All this talk of Climate change etc is all very well when trying to diagnose why it was wet rather than White. Climate change or not, there has been some frigidly cold air bottled up in the Northern Hemisphere. What had been missing is the right pattern to deliver  it to our Shores. 

Yes, I hear you say that it’s Climate Change that is the cause of the said Pattern to be wrong but we are only 2 Years on from the infamous  2018 Beast and 10 years since our 2010 treat. The only discernible difference is the pattern of delivery not the lack of cold available. Some small adjustments here and there and we will be back in the thick of it.

[Model Output Discussion - Into the new year]

15 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

If charts like this fail to get your juices going .. then-give up the game., slack.. uppers ripe.. and positively packed with snowy potential..@gfs getting bk to its guns ..

You are right. If these charts don't trigger full Musk then I would be on the Blower to Mr Numan

[Model Output Discussion - Colder spell ending, what's to follow?]

1 hour ago, XanderP007 said:

Certainly an easternly low good ol snow possible if the temperature does get lower. 

Polar low has dissapeared of the charts. 

Litteraly. 

It’s disappeared because there was never a Polar Low in the first place. The transformation from a vortex to a polar low is usually very rapid And is rarely accurately forecast 24-48 Hours before the event.

[Model output discussion - Winter has arrived]

2 hours ago, West is Best said:

You do need cold uppers for snow. What was 'produced' yesterday was mostly rain and sleet, especially at low levels. Many of us on here remember the days when snow would fall consistently out of the sky and pile up sufficient snow to wade through and sledge in, even in early December. That's snowfall and you roughly require -5C 850hpA for it to occur in the UK at low altitudes. 

Here in lowland West Suffolk 4cms of lying Snow from uppers barely scraping -4. We were forecast Rain with the possibility of a few flakes mixed in. If Lows continue to slide under the huge Russian Block, scenes like this will become more widespread.

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

Thundery Showers already popping up in North Essex heading into South Suffolk. Was quite refreshing here yesterday Afternoon/Evening. The Batch of Storms that merged to the West of here began drawing a breeze behind it. First evening in ages it was actually pleasant sitting in the Garden. Me and my Girlfriend (Stella) had a lovely hour together. .

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Is that all due to colder uppers running over the top of the current bettyswollocksness we currently have at ground-level?

So Mary Hinge tells me She isn’t often wrong

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

8 hours ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

Interesting forecast once again. Once this elevated stuff clears, temperatures should rocket. Possibly Cambridge area down to the Home Counties again to break the cap by mid-late afternoon. There’s also less of a breeze from the NE here, so that should also help. 

Think it may have broken in the last Hour here in West Suffolk

Quote

 

 

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

SE and EA looking like the Spawning Ground this Morning. You can see New Storms breaking out around Norwich, Sudbury etc. Another Cell just coming to Kent Coast. I think we may of been Decapped.

[Storms and Convective discussion- 7th August onwards]

 As I think Kold Weather has mentioned, we are entering quite a rare set of circumstances coming together over the coming Days. The development of the Thermal Low over the central Lowlands is unusual in itself. These are usually subtropical features and thus are rare visitors to our near Shores. Think Wintertime Polar Low formation but the other end of the spectrum. There is a huge amount of heat available to feed this System. My thoughts are isolated TS breaking out almost anywhere from Sunday PM onwards. These becoming more widespread and severe as we move into the early part of next Week. As ever, some places will miss out, some places will be pounded by Storm after Storm. Even if you don’t get the rain I imagine there will be few places in the UK that won’t see Lightning flickering away in the distance. This could be what you have all been waiting for. Make the most of it.

[Model output discussion - August hot spell - how hot, how long?]

10 minutes ago, Alderc said:

Interesting, some big old differences down this way, Arpege has max of 32C, although I it always overshoots temps here.

Temps are off to a sluggish start, normally by 9am on a day when you are shooting for 37C in London I'd expect to see 27/28C widely now across the south east and southern coastal sites, only 23C at Heathrow for instance and only 21.4C here. 

Just hit 25c in Cambridge. I remember last July 25th it was 30c at 10am. Sky Cloud free at the moment. Very little if any breeze and looking like it’s going to bake. 

Image from University of Cambridge 

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Summer 2020.]

5 hours ago, Kentspur said:

I've said it before but I'd love to know what Gravesend would have recorded in the spell last year as it used to frequently be top dog with a Southerly flow before they scrapped the weather recording station. The sunshine lasted around  an hour or 2 longer here if I remember rightly compared to London for instance I will never know if we made 39c or even 40c last July with it no longer being recorded officially here

I’m pretty sure that Cambridge Botanical Gardens isn’t an official Weather recording Station. Their reading had to be verified before it was made an official record. If anywhere like Gravesend had exceeded this Temp we would of heard about it.. 

[How hot will it be? Temperature Competition]

34.4 Cambridge Cambs Saturday 29th June.

[Model Output Discussion - May and Early Summer!]

11 minutes ago, knocker said:

Outlook - The front(s) that are currently straddling...

I tune in every Morning for your perusal of the outlook Knocker. An honest and unbiased opinion for which I thank you.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I think you're wrong there if that was the case, why is it in that area and not widespread. It's a streamer full stop.

Why is every area of Of Snow that just happens to be in line of the Thames Estuary called a Streamer? It Snowed here last Night but it was called an area of Snow.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

Heavy Snow continues up here in West Suffolk and looks like it will be a good few hours before it slows up. Probably 5 or 6 cms so far. It all evens out in the end I suppose as we got next to nothing the other Week. Certainly not gloating as I was hoping we all would all get a look in. Would quite happily share what I have to those less fortunate.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

Snow heavier still and beginning to settle on the Road. We’re not in an Amber warning area so I’m thinking maybe an adjustment North is occurring?

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

Snow seems to be building more to the North of the Capital than was originally the forecast. Up here in West Suffolk it’s gaining in intensity.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 03/03/2018 onwards]

For anyone that’s interested in what’s happening to the North of London the Snow has become heavier in the last half hour and is settling on all surfaces. 15 miles west of Bury st Edmunds.