Dark Horse

raz.org.rain snow in Athens no doubt.

Maz same with me but I've reined that in now. I really don't get hopeful when the shadow is forecast. It does save a lot of disappointment!

Stephen_Mcr Yeah I'm keeping my hopes low on this. Looks like a strong chance of a shield. In the past I was often doubtful, "maybe it'll be wrong" but nope, when virtually every model is showing it then it's a red flag for me. So I cannot see there being anything other than a dusting here. They don't have to be flat but if the Pennines were 300-400m smaller we'd be laughing. A small row of hills and the shield would be way less of an issue, if at all.

The Northern Ramper not surprising really with these features almost always correct south closer to the time. I suppose it'll save on the disappointment, rather have no chance of snow than a shield rubbing my nose in it "look what you could've had".

Joe Bloggs great right over this area by the looks of it. That's it then definitely not getting excited.

Joe Bloggs one event that still pi**es me off is the 22nd-23rd March 2013 event. Pretty certain that was a SE wind. Seemed like everywhere else did really well but not where I was. Woke up to a pathetic dusting on the cars, grass and roofs. Not even measaurable. We did pretty well in the preceding January though here in Tameside, that was more of a direct easterly though with less of a shield. I actually had to shovel snow. Not had to do that since 2018. Couple of other lighter coverings in the Feb too of 2013. But yeah that late March event I'm still not recovered from. This below was Bolton from that event which I've noticed is normally far enough away from the shield. Seems like the further north you are in the city the less effected you are by it.

The snow shield almost resembling a lobster claw squeezing the life out of Manchester or that "cool" hand gesture. But it ain't cool at all lol. When I see charts like this I can't get my hopes up. What do you think @Kasim Awan? is the Manchester area going to get a shield?

It just doesn't look cold enough for me for anything significant. We'll see. Always on a knife edge isn't it, never simple lol. Are they still ramping up a SSW in the mad thread too for later this month? it'll arrive in March like last year, too late.

Not getting sucked into beyond 5 days. Going to give it a few more days and if these narnia charts get closer it might be time to pop the cork. One thing I like about Feb snow is I enjoy it better as we have a bit more daylight to see it longer but it's not stupidly late in the season, like March, that the sun destroys it in no time. That was the case during the mini beast in 17th-18th March 2018. 5 inches of snow but most of it was gone by the evening. The sun definitely has a bit of strength to it by then. I notice this every year not the case at the start of the month but by mid March and you know proper spring is close with that higher sun.

Had Worse Yeah I'm not getting excited at all. Ensembles show hardly any perturbations getting below the -10c line. Why I say -10 is because it often gives us more wiggle room instead of everything on a knife edge all the time, as you probably know we can usually get guaranteed snow with -6 to -8c uppers depending on wind direction, a bit warmer from an easterly due to lower dews from the continent helping, but we need some more clusters of extreme perturbations below -10 to really give us a good chance and up to now we only have about one. And that's 14th February. 2 bloody weeks away. I know there's time for something epic look at late Feb 2018 and the 17th March that year as well with the "mini beast" but that was a special time for us and not likely to be repeated relatively close together in this warming climate. But you never know.

@damianslaw the winter chase is getting more tiring & tedious for me every year now especially when we get to late March we often have little to show for it. Always potential way out in fantasy island but getting it into the reliable is what we want. I've not looked at the charts now for a few days which isn't like me really but I've got other dilemmas in my life at the moment. At least you had that mega dumping of snow early in winter. Here only a couple of inches so far. Another poor show on the snow front up to now...still got Feb to go though and yes March.

@Frigid Yes the last time we had a below average CET month was Dec 2022. It's been dire for cold since then. Today a good example with 19c in Scotland, a one off perhaps, but will this become more frequent in winter from now on??

@johncam Yeah for me late Nov to late Jan is optimal time for snow with the sun being very weak. It slowly gains strength from the start of Feb. Crazy how we are already almost there, didn't seem long ago it was xmas.

Is it true that it's reached 19c today in parts of Scotland. That would be crazy for January.

@WillinGlossop them ones are usually the worst. Goes on about healthy eating but then rubs our noses in McDonald's lol....... "do as I say not as I do"

Lots of crashing noises round here. God knows what it'll look like in the morning. This has been the most persistent strong winds from a storm in a long long time. Worst storm in ages and certainly warrants more than a yellow warning.

Pretty bad out there. Unfortunately I have a west facing bedroom and it looks like it'll keep me up tonight. Doesn't look like it'll ease off until at least 4am.

Some impressive temps in Spain. Benidorm up to 22c on Thursday, in January lol. 18c uppers touching the southern Iberian peninsula too. Kinda worrying given how early it is. Are we going to get some early heat this year??? Benidorm (Spain) weather WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK Benidorm 7 day weather forecast including weather warnings, temperature, rain, wind, visibility, humidity and UV

My mum told me she couldn't take me out in my pram for a few days because of this event as she couldn't push the pram in the snow. I was born in June 85 so a shame I wasn't old enough to remember it. I bet the cold was perishing too. Same with Feb 86 but I believe that was much more dry for the vast majority.

Cool or cold weather for me from October through to the end of March. Not a fan of hot weather. For me that's from about 27c upwards but I can accommodate and forgive the weather gods if thunderstorms are a possibility! I do like warmth though, at the right time of year, and so I like this around the start of April onwards through into September. Before then I'm still on the look out for cold. March for me is just an extension of winter, rarely feels properly spring like, still no leaves on the trees either. A bit like September rarely feels like truly autumn, you can still get some properly warm days but the feel of it is different with the lower sun angle.

Unfortunately I cannot see anything all that cold on the horizon. A glimmer of hope though as some perturbations do go below the magic -10c line into Feb so that's never a bad thing and shows that some options are still on the table, if remote! In the meantime alternating between mild and cool weather with further rain at times.

Yes not a great Met update. At the moment we've got time so I'm not throwing the towel in at all but in a couple of weeks the clock will begin to tick with this winter. So far it's hardly been amazing, cold spell end of November/start of Dec and a bit of snow and then the more recent cold which brought a cover of a couple of inches but that's standard stuff really. I was hoping for another 2009/10 and the background signals were looking very promising in late Autumn, better than they have for years. But at the end of the day that's all they are, background signals, and if something is going to go wrong for cold it will for the UK. March can be decent but unless it's a 2013 or 2018 affair it's not normally long lasting or severe.

A notable thing tonight is the pressure gradient north to south. Extremely intense. 950mb in Stornoway and 1004mb in Kent. Not so often you see such a huge difference like that in our small part of the world.

I think we are here too, to a degree as so far it's not been that bad. W'ly or NW'y and things get rough.

Currently sat in Maccies in Denton having a coffee, couldn't resist some fries though . Not that bad out there at the moment. I suspect this will change later on as the wind really picks up.