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Decemberof2010

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    Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    34 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    The 00z GFS is broadly in-line with my expected pattern come early December. Warm Air Advection (WAA) through the UK essentially pumps high pressure up like a balloon, initially very mild but we then see retrogression opening the flood gates to colder Arctic air.

    Could contain: Plot, Chart, OutdoorsCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Plot, Chart, Outdoors, NatureCould contain: Outdoors, Nature, Art, Hurricane, Storm

    Don't take the above charts here literally, it's just a single run of a single model well outside of what's reliable. I'm just using these charts to illustrate the above thinking. It all starts with that WAA, without the WAA there is no blocking, but this is the broad pattern I've been talking about/expecting to start seeing. 

    A lot of chopping & changing to come and we could end up with blocking in a place that's unfavourable to UK cold, but blocking is likely & expected in early December.. we just need to wait & see where.

    Hows this for a mean though! The PV has completely drained away from Greenland.

    Could contain: Outdoors, Nature, Plot, Chart

    Excellent post and easy to understand. Thanks for the effort you put into it

    • Like 14

    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Scorcher said:

    That university temperature means nothing- it's not an official station. There are lots of non-official stations across the country including lots in urban areas that will have recorded much higher temperatures than the official stations.

    Oh yeah I get that. I should have explained a bit more. The reason that gets mentioned is because Leeds doesn’t have an official station anymore, so in all likelyhood that day in 2019 did go higher. But like you say it means nothing as not official 

    Model Output Discussion - Autumn arrives

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, timblandginger said:

    42c for Leeds on Tues from GFS.

    what’s the record For that area? Prob around 36c? 

    A9C9796F-B54A-46BD-B330-A53FC4820CDC.jpeg

    34.4c officially in 1990. However unofficially I think the Uni station recorded 35c in July 2019. The word gobsmacked is used a lot and rightly so. But those temperatures getting this far North I just simply cannot put into words

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    Summer 2022 Chat

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, cheese said:

    Leeds hasn’t had an official weather station since 2003 so we’ll never know. There’s a non-official weather station at the University of Leeds that recorded 35C in 2019 though so most likely that 1990 record is already broken. 

    Thanks. I had read that it was ‘probably’ topped in 2019. But nothing official. Like you say it’s hard to know. I also heard 35c was recorded at the Uni 

    Yorkshire and E England regional discussion

    in Yorkshire & E.England Weather Discussion

    Posted

    21 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Rotherham town centre now flooded. Main street centenary way, tescos area next full of businesses. How were Rotherham outside a yellow warning AND how was it only a yellow and not amber when businesses have flood damage? Seems they only care if its the south. Its an absolute joke tbh how southern centric the warnings are.

    Also with completely saturated grounds 60mph winds could uproot a lot of trees tonight.

    Again. Yellow warning? Yellow.....

    They were getting extremely defensive on the Eunice thread, when people were questioning if it was worthy of a red warning. If you’re in the north you’re not allowed to make those sort of posts. The weather here in Leeds has been shocking today. Lots of localised floods. Trains cancelled with passengers stranded should have been amber for rain

    • Like 1

    Model discussion - hunt for cold - Christmas countdown

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Georgina said:

    Because it’s confusing and when you’re learning you have very little confidence in what your thinking yourself so you watch and read and learn , when people put “it’s awful” you start as a novice to question yourself and what you’ve learnt , it’s just helpful that’s all I thought this forum was about being helpful amd learning and helping others especially when the models are so up and down ! No disrespect taken Thankyou for taking the time to reply ☺️

    Hi Georgina. Unfortunately on this thread in winter, when we get a chance of cold and snow, the tantrums start when a run changes. Feb is a great poster, but has been on here long enough now, and it becomes frustrating for him and others, how cold and snow seems so difficult to come by wherever you are in this country. I learnt a while back, by teaching myself the charts and how to read them, and some comments still baffle me. The ECM tonight is a decent run, however it will not deliver much snow for much of the country and this is what the majority here want to see. 
    Aside from that there are some right Victor Meldrews on here also

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