[Model output discussion - closing in on Winter]

20 minutes ago, SqueakheartLW said:

Looks like the cold is getting ready to pounce here. Anyone got anything that UKMO could stand for?

Ummmmmm

Keep 

Making 

Overreactions 

(not you btw)

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Yep looks very good shaky

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

As Basil Brush once said

BOOM BOOM

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

 

Looks like our Sydney may have to find a new hobby for his extended hibernation 

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

I read on here the other day that it’s ridiculous and pointless to post a random GFS ensemble member out in fi that’s never going to happen. 
So with that in mind I’ve decided to post 23 of them 

 

 

 

    

    

    

    

    

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

1 hour ago, SqueakheartLW said:

BOOM !!!

Give me GFS 06z P30 at 312 hours away PLEEEEEEEEEEEEASE

 Now that is a chart of beauty. In fact if it wasn’t a day too early I may have saved it as my avatar. But then my name may need to be adjusted for 2021.  

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

So after a bit of a sobering set of runs this morning we are back in the game.
The rollercoaster has NOT come off the rails (yet)

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

6 minutes ago, booferking said:

Boom what a mean.

That mean reminds me of a favourite cartoon of mine. 
 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

We’ve had someone call in saying they’ve heard there’s some bitter air heading our way. Well don’t worry there isn’t 

 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Some slight differences at day 12 on the GFS

06z

12z

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

-14c uppers into the U.K. by mid Nov, I wonder if that would be a record - I imagine it’s happened late Nov but not. Mid Feb. shame it’s JFF, but great chart 

Yes, JFF like you say, but a crazy chart for sure. Wouldn’t have though those uppers have happened too many times this time of year. 

[Model output discussion - the final third of Autumn]

Right let the endless chase begin

Ladies and gentlemen I give you p21

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

9 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I think someone needs to explain sublimation to the ECM. Here are the current snow depths

To be fair it’s got Leeds spot on to the exact cm

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, Biggin said:

 Ouch Wonder what it is sposed to be...

Ssshhh it's a -20 under a a -16 that overlap.

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Finally a chart to please Feb. 

-160 uppers about to flood our way

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Brace yourselves. 
GFS 192

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Not sure where the disappointment is coming from?

Heavy snow hasnt ever been forecasy for today guys just light scattered showers 

If anything the showers look more widespread than expected and beefier.

If your looking at 850s and thats it maybe thats whats causing confusion...

Its the heights at hpa that arent low enough.

Lower the dam larger the cloudtops bigger the showera etc 

Look at the difference in the blue colours over the uk 

We can see through today and tomorrow this gets darker which means more and more instability with less capping in the atmosphere

I hope this helps people understand the lack of heavy snowfall

Calm. We will get hit hard tomorrow. Atm more so southyorkshire but north and west will still have generous amounts

Look at the dark blue colours of the heights on the last chart.

So a combination of both low heights and low 850s create a snow machine over the north sea

Hi Scott. A few people I’ve spoken to are a bit downbeat over the snow chances for Leeds. It all looks a bit too south of here. What’s your punt at what sort of conditions we might see? Thanks 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Met office warning from Monday to Wednesday has been adjusted. They’ve dropped the mention of ice with snow being the main focus now.

The details actually mentions their focus is in snow. Interesting 

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Is there any support for this kinda scandi high from the mjo and other background signals?!!

There were a fair few ensembles going that way on the 12z. Will be interesting if they increase on the 18z

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

 Cold is definitely further west at 120 compared to 126 on the 12z

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

Well fellow Yorkshire threaders it's the start of a decent cold spell. Let's hope we all get some decent snow

Lets go

 

[Yorkshire and E England regional discussion]

2 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

No yellow warning for rain required though. What were they thinking? 

Don't think they were thinking full stop. An amber warning for dandruff down south, and nothing for an event that leads to multiple roads across Leeds flooded

[Model thread discussion - cold spell looming]

Just checked the GEFS. There's some stonkers in there. Could we really land something along these lines?

Brutal cold