[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

28 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

From what I can remember just before last years beast the models couldn’t get to grips with the position of the high pressure to our north and just 3 days before it came, the ecm showed the main thrust of cold heading to France and north Spain, before just the next day a north correction and we were in the sweet spot so I’m going to give it until Monday 12z before calling it, we might just get this easterly you never know .

Feb and March 2018 verification stats for some of the main models for your thoughts.

  

 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Verification stats chart shows the JMA should not be ignored. In third behind the ECM and just behind the UKMO. Just thought I would clear that up. 

[Model output discussion - cold proper on the way?]

Its a funny old game, it really is. The low pressure system causing all the headlines on the eastern side of the US (the one that would fire the jetstream back up) has essentially stemmed from the current MJO cycle. Way back from the western side of the pacific. The same MJO cycle that partly gave us such punch to allow the SSW to take place. Now if we can just hope that the forecast for the SSW downwelling is being underplayed a bit, because it will help by tempering that energy that is being created by the US east coast low. It would give us enough eastward wind momentum from the atmosphere layers above in that area of the Northern Hemisphere to keep the jetstream in check and allow the Easterly winds from europe/scandi to push in. I doubt this will be the case however from the Nasa Ozone site the wind reversals through the atmosphere layers just aren't showing. This for me is one of the current sticking points. 

Unfortunately the Strat - trop coupling has been a slow laboured process this time and we are not really seeing the response of downwelling we all hoped for. 

What we currently need the models to pick up on is a slower progression of the low system tracking North east through the USA this weekend which is joining forces with the polar low dropping down from through canada. It really does provide the energy needed to screw up our Easterly.

Watch as the energy barrels through the Atlantic squeezing out any chance of our Easterly.

We need to hope the models are overplaying this system at present. There are musings on the twitter world that the US system has played out further West and less intense than was anticipated. Hopefully that theme continues.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

It has been mentioned because it nailed this pattern about 4 days ago.

here it is at +240. Hope it hasn't got anything nailed.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Here is that daft CMA model at +144. Seen a few mentions of it recently on here so worth a mention.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I have resized and flipped the latest available JMA ensemble mean charts for better viewing, looks decent. Purple dot is the UK for anybody still struggling.

 week 1 500 hpa        week 1 850 hpa

 week 2 500hpa        week 2 850hpa

 weeks 3/4 500hpa    weeks 3/4 850hpa

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

I went for a 1984 type scenario when I posted earlier this month, I'm now going 1987....

 ECM + 198

 January 1987....

I've had a look at the NASA ozone site and the the NOAA strat - trop monitoring page and there are many similarities, zonal wind anomaly, temp anomalies etc all in the same ball park.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

21 minutes ago, JBMWeatherForever said:

The BBC News Channel weather outlook is stating, a few weeks of normal British winter weather ahead, but with next week having below normal temperatures, yet what we can see, shows the greatest likelihood to be for very cold weather next week with an easterly and the promise of more cold or very cold weather after that. I know that they no longer have the Met Office data to view, but they can still see what we are seeing so why is their forecast at odds with the current model output?  

 

An overnight thought if allowed by the mods seeing as it will be quieter in here . The BBC I feel are feeling the pinch of the UK economy. As a publicly funded organisation we deserve better. Imo they have decided to cut costs and took on a below par product. Meteogroup are part of mm International who own several products and are a profit based organisation. They have quite simply undercut the metoffice and sold the BBC a product that does not have the same experience and quality of the metoffice. Just a reminder of the metoffice closing statement on the closure deal with the BBC and the fact that we still have other TV chanels who still Do use metoffice products to conduct their forecasts

[Short Term Model discussion 03/01/19 onwards]

Meteo group short range at +48

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Regarding GFS output, I would have a read of this. Its still relevant. The government shutdown is affecting it, no doubt in that. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/01/07/national-weather-service-is-open-your-forecast-is-worse-because-shutdown/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.c917a9b7b0ee

I would take the GFS and the FV3 with a very large rich of salt and on to compare long term trends, and even at that I would say don't trust it.

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

18 minutes ago, Law of averages!! said:

. Your last comment, just the same as that PROFESSOR... who in the early 2000s said ' would there be SNOW in western Europe '... this really ticks me off, patterns and cycles yes... GW/CC NO

Look, I'm not saying this kind of thing will be instant, it's a slow gradual process, evolution and nature always is. The MODEL OUTPUT over the last couple of years in winter has been great, we have had some really exiting modeling. However there can be no denial that things are warming up, the evidence is everywhere. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Wrong thread, a few arguments against your pov

 

BFTP

Apologies, I should have PM'd @CreweCold my response, sorry mods

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

12 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

I still vividly remember a bbc forecast early 2000s sometime presented by Rob McElwee showing a N'ly topper scenario with max temperatures around 0c for large parts of the country. This was the end of January sometime. 

We struggle to get Arctic Northerlies that potent anymore. 

I presume it's due to the amount of sea ice we've lost over the years. 

Sea ice extent is overall in an emergency state. No doubt about that. 

the slight recovery the website refers too is, in my opinion is due to the current SSW. The warming reduces the chances of PSC clouds (ozone destroying clouds) forming due to the stratosphere temperatures being relatively warm for an unusually prolonged period and allows ozone to reform.

 

  

A healthy ozone layer reduces solar input hence the chances of ice cap recovery. Now bear in mind we are at or very close too the solar minimum and the fact we are looking at "4th and 5th lowest levels of polar ice" the next 20 years look bleak. Sorry to put a downer on things but we need to enjoy these colder and snowy spells as they are modelled because one day it may be a thing of the past

[Scotland/Alba Weather Discussion 2019]

Had a ramble aboot Alva Glen today, 8 deg C, hardly a breath if wind, lovely day for a wander. Worth a visit if you've never been, we stopped just before smugglers cove, but if you carry. On past the cove and up the stream 300 yards or so there's a lovely big waterfall, worth a visit. I plan on visiting the bigger waterfall next time, the little ones legs were done in by the time we got to the dam. 

  . . . . . . 

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

19 minutes ago, Bricriu said:

For blocking towards the end of the month and into February we need to be seeing signs of reversals first at 100 hPa, then at 200, 300 and finally 500 hPa levels, but they are absent.

Slowely getting there at 100hpa, its been a drag this one

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

3 minutes ago, helentheroberts said:

 I can't understand that chart yet. What does it show? If the jet is not pushed south until the 28th, where is it set up? 

Have a read here, explains it quite well I think

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/awinters/realtime/Deterministic_NPJPD.php

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

6 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

By the 28 Jan we are still on the warm side of the jet,so it's February for cold.

I wouldn't say so, remember the phase chart I show was for the North Pacific, the reduction in MJO activity, moving into COD will allow the jet to drop down so to speak, as it progresses into the Atlantic this effect will carry on. Like whipping a rope on the ground, holding it at the far western side of the pacific, the cold is coming, before February as well, the charts are now showing that quite clearly to me

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

16 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

 

Good observation,can anyone on this forum show me evidence of the jetstream going on its hols to southern Spain or North Africa ,if not forget a very cold spell the jet rules uk weather end of.

Maybe not Spain or Africa but forecast to move away from a pole ward jet towatds the equator, yes in the zone for the jet to fired up slightly but it certainly won't be a raging jet, low enough latitude wise so as too not cause us many issues going forward. 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

6 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I believe this is not correct for the ICON global model, are you maybe confusing it with the ICON-EU Europe only higher res model, also available on Meteociel?  Which incidentally was really poor on precipitation during the March cold spell.  The ICON global model seems to perform well but I've yet to see any verification stats for it.

DWD is ICON, this is all I could find for it having a quick scan. cmcglb & cmcreg are the GEM model

  

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

Check out the isobar difference for Greenland at just +24 on the models  the GFS models different from UKMO and ICON at such a close range

      

[Model banter returns]

16 minutes ago, Paul Faulkner said:

Well Well Well....models didnt forecast this....its SNOWING in Stoke!!!

I there is some snaw kicking aboot the day 

 

[Model output discussion - 7th January onwards]

The starting data for the all model output comes prior to this area of low pressure deepening and resolving in the North Pacific.(green dot on the earth null school image) (cyclone pattern on the GFS Northern Hemisphere image to the centre top of the image) (shown tomorrow around midday, 940mb)This will be the lowest area of pressure on the planet tomorrow and will effect the jet stream movement / track downstream into the weekend. I feel until this is in starting input and resolved we will see a few swings in the pattern downstream towards our shores. 

  

We need to see background dynamics slow down now. AAM and the MJO have done their work getting us to this point, we need the wave in the jet stream and the wedges to start falling in the correct place. As the energy spills down from the upper atmosphere I think wee may see more of these cyclonic patterns emerge so its still a waiting game Imo. The week commencing the 21st January is my bet for the cold to really start digging in.

[Stratosphere and Polar Vortex Watch]

Wondered if anyone could help with this one. I understand that the PSC clouds are formed under very low temperatures and the graph is showing record low levels of these cloud types for this time of year. I would imagine this is due to the ongoing prolonged warming over the pole currently  and because of this an increase in ozone can take place. During a solar minimum or as now approaching one, ozone can recover year on year and subsequently reduce solar input further meaning colder winters? Wishful thinking maybe or is this a trend to look for in coming winters? 

  

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

In our hunt for the cold I give you this 2m temp anomaly map. Where is all that cold  (at the poles I know ) Record high daily temp for Alice springs Australia 47 deg C WOW! (I know its there summer but I bet those guys are on the hunt for some cold!) Things looking good for the next 7 days folks, majority of trend looking decent to say the least 

 

[The Hunt for Cold continues 02/01/19]

23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Good point . Either way though our best bet is for the MJO to slow down once in phase 7.

On the last NCEP update the forecaster mentioned that we might see a Rossby wave during week 1 of the forecast . He talked about that because at the time the GEFS had the signal stalling in phase 7 , he said it looked dubious but threw in the Rossby wave as perhaps a reason why we might see that stalling .

The same thing happened during December , when the MJO got somewhat marooned in phase 5 . The forecaster put that down to Rossby wave activity .

One from Twitter from A Masiello "the situation may be less about getting the MJO into phase 7-8 & more about extinguishing tropical heating in general. Perhaps a return of a large scale subsidence over indo/w.pacific will be when the Hadley cell calms down. phase 7-8 only effective if into subsidence is happening too"