[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Game on

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

We often talk about the big 3 on here but I wonder are they in reality:

GFS - Quite often incorrect and slowest to cop on

UKMO - Has the 168hr slide ever been correct

ECM - Even in last cold spell was kicking and screaming to show cold.

Whereas the other so called minnows have a decent record. The Icon, Jma, GEM have all vastly improved in my book. Indeed everyone was laughing at the Jma 24hours ago yet other models have largely followed. Quite often in the Met Office deep dives they mention all the models and like to review them all to get a balance. I've never heard them say big 3.

Just a thought guys, I used to think big 3 myself but maybe they are all as relevant as each other. If this cold spell were to resolve have no doubts the JMA was most consistent....the so called minnow.

I did say IF  

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The control is a stunner, quite similar to the JMA from earlier! Would bring whiteout conditions to most Christmas Eve

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Looking good here at T156 

It does look good sofar 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

So damn close 

and yet so far..

It looks primed after that though!! I predict a freezer for Christmas on tonight's ECM

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Happy Christmas 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Jma is awesome!! We now have 3 in favour of significant cold for Christmas!! We can build on that guys

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Lol, it's game on again!!

Deep cold Christmas Eve

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

BUST!!

 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

All jokes aside the JMA is very cold and wintry!!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Folks Christmas is still beyond 240hrs. I know these patterns can lock in but not always! The deep cold is very close to our Northwest. Sometimes Northern heights can pop up out of the blue.

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Not a bad place to be Christmas Eve. I think we'd all take a delay if Christmas was cold!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Not cold enough from the Icon up to 22nd. It does however show potential maybe after this. The deep cold really is building over Greenland 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The ecm at 240 (Christmas Eve)

Plenty fuel in the Atlantic to keep a very zonal, perhaps stormy Christmas period

Any cold looks transient

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The ukmo at 168!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The chart below is the coldest it gets on ecm! Even at that point not cold enough for snow....away from Scotland 

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Jma chart below.

Synoptics are great but it's actually not cold enough by some margin. Still time for upgrades, which I personally think will happen

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I think that would bring snow to lower levels than those uppers would suggest.

We've been in those setups plenty times in the past and the trend is usually to pull back on cold uppers! We need heights to our North

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Not cold enough!!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

6z brings lots of snow showers to elevated NW Britain and on the 22ns brings a period of snow for SW England

No snow with those uppers other than the very highest ground. Gfs can be quite misleading in its ppn type charts

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

The seas were very warm out West and this is our first cold Northwesterly of the season. Imo no way will it end up cold enough, minus 4s ain't good enough apart from mountain snow. The gem like gfs has a problem sustaining the pattern to Christmas. The trough looks like filling over us and the cold getting mixed out

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

We need heights over Greenland!! This pattern won't sustain otherwise..

An alright chart, but not quite good enough

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Synoptic wise it’s a stunning but uppers of around -5 in a northerly are cold rain for most

Thickness is very good!

I think it would be snow for hills at least..

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

Not a bad Christmas eve chart is it?? Snow for many if this were to come off!!

[Model Output Discussion - Into Winter]

I see nothing wrong with the ecm, in fact it's supporting the idea of cold zonal as we head for Christmas. At least we have a ticket for the raffle this year and the euro high is most definitely weakening!!