January Snowstorm

January 5

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Ok got it, if the output is suggesting cold ignore it. save looking at all the science and output I guess.

Pretty much and follow the Met Office. They get accused of being mildies all the time. They looking fairly spot on now....

Anyway over to ECM, my experience also tells me things can over correct so the cold chance is certainly not gone, just fragile for now

January 5

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

So what should we use to see what might be coming fi? If we are not going to use enes etc.

What made you warn people about the trend last night and before if you weren’t using the output and enes etc?

Decades of experience, of seeing it flip last minute, especially when cold is involved

January 5

Ecm not interested in the Easterly. Has everything a nudge South with the decent uppers barely clipping the far South

January 5

The good news is that the uppers have improved a lot for next week's Easterly. You would think chances there for coastal snow.....

Re long-term very fragile, a couple of us warned about the trend last night and before. Following FI is folly no matter what ensemble agreement is what I said previously and say again

January 5

Control out to 216hrs. A lot slower to establish heights over Greenland. Too early to call but also looks like failing. Some turnaround this is,

January 5

Gem, block also failing!! Some turnaround this morning, the cold spell is on the ropes

January 5

Some block that is!!

January 4

1 minute ago, Met4Cast said:

Yup.. that’s generally how it goes in here though, one dodgy run and winter is over.

GEFS remain solid so far, I suspect the det will be an outlier in the extended.

Just commenting on what's churned out.....but you are right ensembles give a better trend.....

January 4

And the heights are gone to our North just like that.....the ec46 said rest of Winter would be blocked....folks from a guy that's seen models flip at an hours notice take it from me this is not a done deal.....yes we are in with a great chance but don't tell family or friends because you could be left looking rather stupid.....note been there done that,....as ever more runs needed

January 4

Those Greenland heights lasted fairly well!! 2 days was it Sunday to Tuesday....

January 4

Bitter by Friday! Erm...

January 4

The Icon nudges the high pressure further South again. The Easterly (and I know its only the starter) now misses entirely to the South. Just one run I guess...

January 4

6 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

So you trust the uppers at day 10 ?

BFTP

Why shouldn't I, they are usually over egged at that timeframe and milder closer to the event. Next weeks easterly was showing minus 8 to 10 for 2/3 days. Now its showing minus 5 for 24hours

Seas are still warm around our shores

January 4

1 minute ago, MATTWOLVES 3 said:

Some of you are looking for perfection on every run and perfection ain't possible..close to it yes. Even an Olympic pole volter wouldn't clear the bar some of you have raised.

Check the mean out its a cracker.

Synoptically it certainly is. But the uppers tell a less cold picture, at least initially

January 4

Jma day 10...

Not exactly freezing

January 4

Jma, not much cold there from initial Easterly. It barely gets minus 5s. Was showing deep cold only yesterday for mid week.

January 4

So the ECM has a day 10 chart where Greenland heights have just established yet seem to be on the move West 24 hours later. On the other hand uppers are moving South but even at day 10 they are not cold enough for snow. But wait its dry anyway so we needn't worry about any of that lol

Folks I thought the ecm was showing a stunner of a 240hrs chart 2 days ago. Shouldn't that now be moving to 192 hrs rather than staying at 240?

Sorry but I'm not convinced about long term cold. The Met have it spot on, cold and dry...

January 4

I see a different Icon.

Uppers too high midweek and a high that could go anywhere at 180hrs. It's funny we all see charts differently I guess

January 4

I detect a bit of nervousness around today and I feel the same!! The Easterly being toned back a little isn't helping, especially for my location as would have done well. The real decent charts are still in FI, BUT it does have a very 2010 feel about it. For those around then we remember great consistency day to day and it landed as predicted. There is so much in our favour but unfortunately we bear the scars from previous..

January 3

So the morning will obviously be a key timeframe to see can we continue the trends of today. We are on the cusp of something extraordinary but not there yet... if things were to come off as modeled there is no doubt it would match 2010 and most likely cause huge disruption...IF..

January 3

Look at the control!! Have we ever seen that depth of cold in Eastern Europe! It looks like some could spill this way too!

January 3

The Easterly is almost upgrading by the hour. Latest jma full blown Scandi High

January 3

Icon much milder 850s up to 120hrs

January 3

6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

850's not as cold as GFS/UKMO? maybe not as much snow in Kent

It's OK for Cork

January 3

Ukmo keeps very cold uppers over Ireland. I imagine it's picking up snowfall on Monday and Tuesday and it freezing over afterwards. Major upgrades this afternoon, 2010 is imminent

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