January Snowstorm
-
Posts
2,023 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by January Snowstorm
-
-
Actually very poor from the 18z control!! Worse than op at this point with no proper heights over Greenland
-
2
-
1
-
-
Having viewed all models including the latest 18z am certain of one thing.....we are going to be exhausted on the floor by the time this comes home.....I've never seen such promise and background signals take so long to evolve.....not complaining but I need a sleep
-
8
-
1
-
-
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:
Running
into Convective/ streamer activities there .
The last couple of icons and gfs have downgraded potential for Monday and Tuesday shoving the coldest uppers South of previous projections. We are almost back where we started here I.e non event. Interestingly the Met both here and UK never bought into it. Still time for upgrades though!
-
1
-
1
-
-
Just now, sheikhy said:
Is it just me not worried about this evenings ecm 12z?!!i dunno why but it aint bothering me lol!!!normally it would ruin my evening and all sorts but i reallly am not too disheartened!!!on to the 00zs....!!!
I agree, too much on cold happening from all sources! Experience helps in these circumstances and I remember all previous cold spells like 2010 etc. I'll sum up my experience in one line "If John Holmes is going for it, you can be 110% certain it will happen!!"
-
2
-
-
5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
If Ireland is broadly mild and wet it'll take some exceptional synoptics to produce cold in the UK.
Don't take this post out of context I am merely referring to the synoptic pattern forecast in
-
-
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:
Awesome, 2010 yet again!
-
1
-
1
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
Look at this from ukmo for just 3 days time!! How has that cold pool just grown and deepened over just 12hours!!
-
11
-
Perfection from gfs!!
-
8
-
-
Control picking up the convection now over Ireland!! Might look like snow grains but that could give quite the fall around my area
-
4
-
-
Yes Icon and gfs up the ante yet again with cold pool early next week!! It's now an event no question. I'm liking this for Southern Ireland especially, it has spell of snow written all over it!!
-
3
-
-
It would be up there with 2010 and cause widespread disruption!! Background signals much better, Meto update very good
Game on!!
-
7
-
-
I've a feeling the models over corrected earlier, a thing they can do!! Why do I feel tomorrow is going to be a day of incredible charts!!
-
4
-
-
- Popular Post
- Popular Post
The 18z is the best run of the week!! Major upgrade here folks, both in next week's Easterly and more so next weekend!
-
13
-
1
-
1
-
The control has much colder uppers in the South now aswell, and hence stronger convection. Erm, this could deliver for the Southeast and my own area!!
-
7
-
1
-
-
Just now, Kasim Awan said:
ICON 18z would produce several cm 2-8cm Kent Sussex into East London Monday/Tuesday with more widespread flurries further North.
Yes its kind of creeping up on us last few hours!! Worth noting gem for first to upgrade!! It's a slice of deep cold that has the ability to produce
-
4
-
-
The gfs is also upgrading potential early next week. Imby that's a snow maker for areas like Cork on Tuesday. Uppers of minus 10, over a warm sea!! It has more potential than it may look....
-
5
-
-
Amazing how the moans end up in here but incessant ramping is always left alone. Yet this is also meant to be the ramp thread
-
1
-
-
The uppers for Tuesday are significantly higher than previous run on 06z gfs. Minus 8s across the South last night are now minus 2 to minus 5
No snow anywhere on that, but it was always marginal to be fair
-
2
-
-
12 minutes ago, TSNWK said:
I too wonder why some bother with doom and gloom. Hobbies are meant to provide enjoyment...
Although if I lived in southern Ireland or west Cornwall I would need a much higher bar than for others in the north / east / southeast.. so I guess there might be a little of that at play in fairness
Maybe they give a realistic view rather than ramping. Southern Ireland gets as much snow as anywhere else as we can be hit from the East and West. The gfs was poor last night and worse this morning. The ecm was good and I said that. That's not doom posting its posting what the charts show
The reality is very few have seen a snowflake half way through Winter. Having said that background noises remain good
-
6
-
-
2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Eps aren’t seeing a breakdown of the sort most on here are fearing
at worst a mid lat high drifting in end week 2 seems to be the alternative to cyclonic cold
Indeed but most on here look for cold in the hoped that it delivers snow eventually. I can only speak for myself but if it's not going to snow I have zero interest in cold
We are waiting a long-time to get this home. A mid latitude high eating into January is not what most want. It might as well get mild
-
-
3
-
-
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:
ECM da9 is great when viewed in isolation.. however I get a sense it will not run with heights building further than day 9 and it’s a case on where they fall for longivity
I'd say day 10 will be best yet! Let's see...
-
The Ecm is very good. Indeed its colder than last night, as in gets the cold in faster!! Maybe the ship can be steadied yet!
-
2
-
.png.2c025833100f9ab9c0bcbbb327f65f9c.png)
Model Output Discussion - Into 2024
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
The ecm almost always gets to a boom chart by 240hrs. It's at it for over a week now and does some this morning. Of course the other models aren't any better in their chopping and changing. A couple of signals that have grown the last 24 hours or so
- Weaker heights over Greenland and also further East which in turn are shoving the Northerly further East.
- Remaining cold at the surface out to day 10 so quite a frosty week where skies are clear.
- Very dry with little chance of snow throughout.
- A shortening of the cold spell looks inevitable with some sort of Atlantic breakdown during week 2.
For me the Met Office have done a very good job. Called it cold very early, said it would be mainly dry which it is, and we're stand offish long term. Folks other than us on here, there is almost no talk of a cold snowy spell in the public domain and for now that remains the correct outlook