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January Snowstorm

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Scott Ingham said:

    An op run is one run out of a lot of runs. No disrespect but unless you see a trend in the ensembles for a mild outcome then it hasn’t really gained traction. In the last 48 hours we’re talking about 1 model in 4 showing a crap run depending on it being 0z 6z 12z 18z and this is perfectly normal in the lead up to a complicated cold pattern. The point I’m making is yeah discuss it if you want but it’s not really strong enough evidence to suggest we have a trend. That’s misleading. Im a balanced poster if I saw big swings in the ensembles I’d call them out myself. Anyway everyone has a different way of doing things I’m just trying to help newbies out as forecasting not taking means and ensembles into account is for me a mistake looking forward 

    We've learnt hard lessons over the years that you dismiss a run at your peril. Time and time again I've seen one run pick up a trend, it looks isolated at the time only for others to follow. We need proper sustained heights over Greenland. If we don't get them I'd bet my bottom dollar that cold will unravel at record pace 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    One gfs op isn’t a chart to back up a view though. An ensemble pack that shows 60% support for a run that is a different story. It’s important not to get caught up in one run out of about 200 over several models. That’s the key point I’m trying to make. If you look at all available means for the 15th to the 22nd does mild or cold have the most evidence to support it? 

    It's several op runs in last 48 hrs. GEM and Jma last night and 2 runs on the bounce from gfs. The ensembles on 12z gfs also. Cold still favoured, but the trend towards something milder has actually gained traction in the last 24hours. That doesn't mean it will happen, but it's certainly deserves discussion and comment

    • Like 2

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    Is anyone else exhausted from the build up to this. It seems to be ongoing since Christmas!! In my time on here I don't ever remember such a drawn out event, and yet still the goods or day 7 and further!! We must be averaging 3/4 pages an hour now for about 19days and nought to show for it 😆 

    I'll give it an extra day and if the wishy washy charts and chopping charging are still there am packing it in. Sorry guys but the rollercoaster is designed as a short journey for a reason. This place is gone like the titanic and that Greeny high is sinking!! Let's see where the 18z goes, now rolling 😃 

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    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, Allseasons-Si said:

    It doesn't matter as long as we have cold over the Uk whilst troughs/lows slide E/SE ,would keep us in the game🙂

    History tells us it matters very much indeed. We have seen in several occasions over the years how these type of weak wedges are too weak closer to the time and leave Atlantic back in. Cold on paper, reality casts doubt on duration of cold

    • Insightful 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, O'Maille80 said:

    My point is more that the evolution is always fraught and make little sense. Always a drama when it looks like a tap in, boring.

    Ya Greenland heights could be better. As can often happen they weaken after about 48hours. Whether this delivers or not am sure most will agree its been exhausting!!

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

    Forget uppers at that range! Look what’s just happened to tomorrow uppers. It’s the bigger scale we’re looking at and it’s upgraded in the 120/144 mark. Todays been a good day

    Perhaps your right but there's no denying any ppn is beyond day 10. I guess let's get the cold in first and see what happens. Overall a very good day model wise

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Maybe we should put some numbers to the language so that when some shout “a deep freeze is now off the table” we know what we are talking about.

    As I see it taking into account usual U.K. winter synoptics:

    850s of 0 = Cool

    850s of -4 = Cold (has to be, given at -4 snow is in the mix)

    850s of -8 = Very Cold (rare, and snow over rain nearly ever time)

    850s of -12 = Severe Cold (very rare in truth, if you want lots of these go to Canada!)

    850s of -16 = Exceptional Cold (how often in the last 50 years?)

     

    On this basis I will say again - we are looking at a spell of very cold weather off and on for the extended. At times it will be cool to cold, and at best we might hit the odd moment of severe cold if the dice roll kindly. And snow is in the mix.

    Do some folk need to get realistic about U.K. winter? We will never hit continental levels of freeze potential.

    image.png

    You make some very good points Catacol and your knowledge of the Strat/background signals is superb. Yes you are right if you want deep deep cold move to Canada and that 06z gfs is very cold. But most have not seen one snowflake all Winter and the wait remains on that front for now. I guess that's the disappointing fact. We are located far enough North in the hemisphere to expect at least a few days of snow....obviously keeping in mind we are island nations etc. So yes fantastic charts but none show snow for now, even for the North

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