January Snowstorm

January 3

Massive upgrades this evening for Early next week's Easterly. We even have agreement across all models out sofar!!! I fancy some snowfall in my area, cold minus 8 uppers over the Irish sea

January 3

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO uppers

Wow!! Deep cold!!

January 3

What I see as favourite is the high pressure meandering close to our shores for the whole month!! I think there's a real risk that retrogression won't happen and we stay dry. Hope I'm wrong. The Met Office seem to see this as an option.

Nothing factual, just from years ofi watching charts and how they behave. I think to be hanging on charts at 240hrs is folly, no matter what ensembles say. We have seen backtracks before with 100% agreement on Greenland heights. Just highlighting it as a risk right now

There's a reason the Met go 7 days on their outlooks. It's not that their mildies, but they look for accuracy

January 3

1 minute ago, Lukesluckybunch said:

The op was more or less and outlier early on..oh well

Yes the control had much higher uppers

January 3

Wake me up when we get some weather!! In fairness looks cold

January 3

Big upgrade there on the Easterly flow!! Much colder 850s for Monday and Tuesday

January 3

Jma seems to end on a west based nao

January 3

7 minutes ago, Cheshire Freeze said:

The GFS saw a lack of latitude to the HP at D9/10

Most other models overamplified.

No idea why people wheel out hemispheric verification stats when it’s the UK and Europe we’re interested in.

It's usually when European version isn't great to disguise what's happening. Here's hoping ECM can be better

January 3

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

We could quite easily end up here - if we end up with a UK high the Azores to our South will be under a perpetual strengthening motion and resulting very mild uppers.

Yes you are right. The trend this morning is not good. The charts remain just about OK and day 10 seems to remain at day 10

January 3

Here's the 168hrs from ukmo. A uk high that might lead to inversion type cold. Look at the uppers, much much milder than what was on table 2 days ago. Anything outside of this timeframe is FI and may or may not happen

January 3

8 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Honestly mate if I’m struggling to know what your thinking is then I expect many others are too, your mind seems to change every single time the models run.

He's analysing the charts and looking for where things can go wrong. You should try it sometime. The charts in the reliable are just about OK. Anything decent remains in FI

January 2

Control finds a shortwave at 216hrs. No height rises into Greenland at this stage. As per op a delay

January 2

Viewed as a snap shot, it's not a great chart

January 2

I wonder is there a chance that the Scandi high develops further and the Greenland high delays more. All gold just different types. There is definitely a trend in both op and now control to delay the heights into Greenland. The wise among us know that delays are never good

January 2

Looks like the op was an outlier early on. Very good mean and control and the op is stunning deep in FI. So yes I was a bit hasty in earlier comment. It's all good

January 2

Just now, Met4Cast said:

Forget the op, the GEFS mean now has an easterly flow across the south.

Yes much better!!

January 2

5 minutes ago, weathercold said:

Some of the posts on here tonight are simply mind boggling. If these are ‘poor’ charts on the 18z and you’re a cold weather fan it’s time to find another hobby. The potential route we are finding ourselves on is as a rare as anything in many a year, potentially historic if our dice falls favourably. Some need to take a step back before posting these OTT, unhelpful one liners.

A couple of facts

1 - The Easterly continues to dilute

2 - The Greenland height rises now happen day 12, not day 10. That's deep FI.

3 - The Greenland height rises are weaker than previous run.

In general all good but the operational run is not as good as 12z. Fine margins.

And to add balance the Mean is still very good, if not better so maybe the op just an outlier

January 2

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Sun night onwards

5 nights cold frosty weather ..

While we wait for the Greeny block..

Heavy and persistent frosty nights is a slight exageration. 0 to minus 2 across most areas in early January is nothing to write home about...

January 2

Time for a night's sleep. A poor run from the gfs this evening. Ensembles will likely be much better. A uk high hanging around for 2 weeks, NO THANKS

January 2

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Vortex is going to split..

A sobering run is on the menu tonight!

January 2

By the way guys, JMA has it all this evening. Bitterly cold Easterly followed by a huge Greenland high!! It ends like this!!! Or should I say begins....

Absolutely bitter!

January 2

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

I’m not really following you, this is trouble with over analysing singular det runs it skews the actual indication from model output . The GEFS are also coldest they’ve ever been in initial easterly attempt down to -8.2C on London on Monday, so rather the cold is upgrading while it will be dry for most. In terms of snow showers realistically this has only really favoured eastern and southeastern England and nothing significant there is still flexibility for these areas I feel whether more dry or not. I don’t know what you were expecting in south of Ireland but it was a foolish hope. I’d say we are in as good position as we can be for the start of January, sea surface temperatures will fall reducing CAA modification, ground temperatures will fall, it has been very mild in recent weeks. Today, 13.7C in Heathrow a spring value. Some areas are currently flooding so the opportunity to dry out is fantastic ans urgently needed, and well no snow will settle on flooded fields.

Just a couple of comments:

1) Southern Ireland coast works similar to Southeast UK in a cold Easterly i.e snow. I should know I live here. So it isn't a foolish hope. We got several inches of snow in 2018.

2) I'm not analysing individual runs. It's a fact that all models have backtracked from the weekend Easterly other than GEM. This time last night they were showing us under minus 8s for several days. Now we go cold (850s wise) for a day or so. Mainly frosty and dry..

Re 'snow won't settle on flooded fields' This in my view isn't correct. If the airmass is cold enough flooded fields will freeze over in a matter of hours. Dec 2009 is an example of this.

January 2

So what's happened in 24hours:

1 - The Weekend Easterly has vanished by almost all models barring GEM. This is hurtful because it would have delivered really cold air and perhaps snow showers to regions not favoured under Northerlys. Downgrade, simple as.

2 - Greenland heights at the far end of FI gathering pace. Normally we wouldn't take much notice of this but because all models are favouring it we remain rightly positive. It also ties in with Meto musings which is good!!

My personal experience on here is that delays to cold ALWAYS spell bad news for it happening at all. So many hurdles before we get there etc. HOWEVER on this occasion with so much ensemble support and background weak vortex on side I really do think we have a fighting chance....

January 2

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Hmmmm - now what's going on here?

Lordy lordy.

Another Day 10 from ecm. Disguises what has evaporated in the reliable timeframe!

January 2

Goes the Greenland route in the end, another good 240hrs chart lol. There is no cold up North though, it's all out East...

Sign In

Forums

Blogs

Gallery

Events

Learn About Weather and Meteorology

Community guides

Posts posted by January Snowstorm