Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

January Snowstorm

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    2,023

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by January Snowstorm

    • Popular Post
    • Popular Post

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by January Snowstorm

    2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM seems keen on some action.  T240:

    IMG_8523.thumb.png.bff0c062c9f2d84e7e5b518d1de32665.png

    Just appeared in last two frames.

    Yes a definite hint this evening that the flip to zonal might be short lived.. its another chase, are we up for it....just about!

    -6 here last night with frost lingering all day! Last time that happened was 2018 and 2010

    • Like 13

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    To be fair considering the significant amount of support for a cold spell it's surely normal to feel deflated. It's not every day all the background signals inc Met Office long range was going for significant cold through Jan. This is more than a mild blip, its a 360° change which came out the blue....

    It is up there with the epic fails of the past, indeed it could top them all. For me there is no doubt Strat musings and background signals are over exaggerated as to their influence. To call next week the event still happening when we barely get 48 hours of a Greenland high....for someone who grew up in the 80s what's around the corner is comical.

    I would love to here from the Met Office as to what went wrong with their own thoughts. Not to criticise but to understand what their feelings are on what went wrong. Because wrong it did go imo

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    Correct there is no indication of anything cold in the next couple of weeks bar the odd polar maritime spell. 

    There is 100% agreement across all models that Northern blocking will not be taking hold in the next 10 days. After that is FI as this week has re taught us. Of course we will get more chances of cold in February, it happens almost every year. But for now it's a waiting game, one we are used to.

    • Like 7

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Sorry - watching the footy and posting at the same time! 
    nothing doing until the back end of jan at the earliest - and that will probably be from a mid lat ridge which could then either drift ne or nw. 

    Worth bearing in mind that the Strat and it's effects being a relatively new Science certainly haven't helped in predicting the weather. Maybe too much credence is given to it. You can't beat a bit of experience of how our islands behave and react during the Winter months. The Met Office themselves seem to take a lot of notice now of Stratospheric developments too. Has it helped them be more accurate? Certainly not.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - Colder but how cold and for how long?

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just wanted to say very well done to John Holmes who marked our cards a few days back that Westerly winds were imminent while the rest of us were drooling over charts. How right he was!!

    All change for end of week as the Atlantic takes over again. Positives are the musings from the Strat that things still look favoured for further blocking. For me and going by experience it's at least 2 weeks back from chart below

    image.thumb.png.039e8b9d9e8c178ff402223bbb10ca15.png

    • Like 9

    Moans, ramps and banter

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    I see some of the regulars have vanished tonight! It's kind of surreal to think we woke every night at 4am to eventually end up with this for dinner. It's more of the same really next week cold or very cold but dry. Must be the longest chase in NW history with little to show for it. We didn't even get frost this week just unpleasantly cold..

    • Like 8

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Mike Poole said:

    ECM clusters this morning. Again just one cluster between T120-T240, probably too many solutions again, so no help at all.  And actually, we’re getting to the point where we need to see detail on the evolution that these plots don’t have.

    T264+:

    IMG_8435.thumb.png.ec021884f3a5e3770134e1737c9a5c1e.png

    The block over Greenland pretty much gone day 11, there are a couple of interesting evolutions we’ve seen before, in the very southerly jet in cluster 4, coupled with a resurgence of the blocking further north.  Cluster 5 has the development of a fledgling Scandi high, so that is still on the table.  The other 3 have some mobility in them, the devil in the detail of what features might pop up, and how much cold air remains in the mix.

    And that's the headline really, the block  all but gone by Day 11!! All decent cold spells must maintain heights either over Greenland or Scandi/Iceland... still it's day 11 so all can change

    • Like 3

    Model Output Discussion - Into 2024

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just now, IDO said:

    Well, there you have it, EC is finally moving towards that surface high that delays the northerly at D6-7:

    image.thumb.png.26f2847a921156d3aef7ae346f22766a.png

    It has proven again that it is no longer the top dog. The low from the Azores now moving towards the UK, and 850s are disappointing at D7:

    image.thumb.png.0e23dfe5e9f00c1b3fd507c48e6449c2.png

    GFS clearly as of 0z better modelling in the last two days.

    Yes as I said last night even if it's just 1 or 2 runs and isolated ignore any run at your peril

    • Thanks 1
×
×
  • Create New...