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Devonshire

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Posts posted by Devonshire

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, AppleUK 123 said:

     "I've been talking to the medium range guys, longer range forecasters in regards to snow at end of November and they say there is no strong signal for that!" Absolutely devastated that the Met Office don't seem to agree with current output.

    There may be no "strong" signal, but there may be a signal - maybe a moderate one - also, as I understand it, there is no strong signal in the model output. Moral: don't be devastated, just chill, like weather is set too!

    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The differences between the eps and gefs at day 14.5 remain obvious

    9EC0FE40-BB6C-4CA0-A46F-EB6F7417B563.thumb.jpeg.4a2c3c8451125fe05460c1d97253997e.jpeg  9E5529CB-5D91-490E-A99A-472DA483374E.thumb.jpeg.36a38a6a5ab39ca18f4876de79a31f76.jpeg                               

    What is obvious about this to you, and one or two others (aside from the different colours), might be lost on many reading this - myself included! Can you please explain the subtleties in terms of the hunt for cold in the UK?

    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - here comes the beast!

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Weather of Mass Disruption said:

    Surely such a chart would have as much of a chance of verifying as it does of not doing so? 

    No - of course not: it is 10 days out and provides detailed indications of snow depth at a great many points across GB, Ireland and NW Europe - it has as much chance of verifying as you have of winning every Euromillions jackpot between now and then buying one ticket in each draw.

    Model output discussion - mid January

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    24 minutes ago, supernova said:

    Be good if almost everything in the last few pages was banished to the moans & banter thread. Same old story, sadly, first sign of cold potential in the models and there's always someone ready to spew a plume of groundless hot air all over it, swiftly followed by a scrabble of rampers keen to defend a bunch of charts that haven't verified yet

    I say, that's a little harsh on some of the well-reasoned responses to a flurry of Wa***** posts (thanks Wa****  for opening up page 13 of my 'ignored' posters - for those getting exercised by some of the irrelevant stuff on here, hover over the poster profile, click on ignore ... they tend to be serial offenders and reading the thread without them makes for lower blood pressure! Be your own moderator!).

    Anyway, thanks for the serious/knowledgeable posts from the usual people at this time of intrigue and excitement - the less experienced on here benefit greatly from your posts :)

    • Like 7

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Devonshire
    making model-thread-relevance explicit!

    2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    No scientific links to post but all the info is out there eg spaceweather etc as most are besotted by AGW science.  Folk normally round up on us as crack pots who think that solar/lunar effects have any control over our weather

    I am definitely in the camp that appreciates solar/lunar (have to be careful about saying 'extra-terrestrial'!) influences on climate and weather - I am just interested that a couple of times you have made a comment on this thread about strong solar wind and it's upcoming effect on our weather patterns and I wondered what was behind this. Maybe someone has done research looking at arrival of solar wind and co-incident (I am not saying coincidental!) changes in model trends and patterns. If this is 'out-there' it would be useful in interpreting the model outputs. Maybe in the not too distant future we will be considering solar activity (current and far-side/incoming) as teleconnections - and maybe they will be factored into (some of) the models?

    • Like 4

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Northernlights said:

    Seems to make the jetstream take a more southerly track and is more easily spotted in the mid lattitudes where it has the greatest effect.

    Thanks Northernlights - I will take a look. I am aware of sunspot-cycle - climate links, but was really quite interested in shorter-term solar links to terrestrial weather, of the sort that could possibly be incorporated into (or inform interpretation of) the gfs/ecm/ukmo model output that we look at here. Sudden changes in trends/patterns (such as disappearance/downgrades of cold events!) are interesting/frustrating - I have little doubt that non-terrestrial events have an influence (not sure I should call this a 'long-range teleconnection'!)

    I will watch the video...

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    Yes definitely upgrades coming, don’t discount my ‘big solar wind hitting Earth affecting the jetstream’ musings.

    I think I missed the detail on this - are you proposing a link between (coronal hole stream) solar wind and terrestrial jet-stream behaviour? If so, could you please post a link to scientific publications that outline this - and ideally research (and especially models) that predict future solar wind streams that are Earth-directed?

    I find this area really interesting but haven't come across any papers that set this out in a way that is meaningful for weather forecasting. MODS: I think this IS thread-related: it would be great if a link were established and models available that could inform forecasting using the usual models discussed here. (Is it possible that Met O and others have models that incorporate solar activity, but which are not available to the public?)

    • Like 1

    Model output discussion - mid-winter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 hour ago, Bring Back1962-63 said:

    This post will be rather shorter than my normal meanderings

    Thanks for keeping it short and to the point - although you classify yourself as a 'learner', your posts always contain some interesting angles. I appreciate brevity that does not compromise by missing anything of importance out. I look forward to visiting the teleconnections thread.

    • Thanks 1

    Model output discussion - winter proper underway

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Devonshire
    typo

    5 hours ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

    am very keen on this Xmas period, in the winter hopes thread on 7th Dec I mentioned anticipated strong solar wind hit around 22nd.  Well today we have Earth facing Coronal hole with strong solar winds anticipated to arrive 21/22nd bang on cue (info courtesy of space weather).  Let’s see what develops from here.  My thoughts on this are jetstream effects (meandering more/ southward shift) and increase in depth/strength of LPs.

    I am not sure where you are getting a 'strong solar wind' hit from - there are 2 small coronal holes on Earth side of Sun - certainly nothing out of the ordinary to my eyes, especially in light of much larger ones that trundle round periodically (days, not weeks). I will keep an eye on the jet though in case it exhibits any extraordinary short-notice behaviour - same with LPs, though my (limited!) understanding is that flares/CMEs are more implicated than solar wind in affecting strength/track of storm systems.

    To appease mods: if there is a sudden effect on the Jet I guess we can look at sudden (actual) departures from modelled jet track /LPs in very short term - as well as any sudden large shifts in models' track of jet/LPs, wrt timing of solar wind inpacts .... maybe. It would be great to think that Solar teleconnections could be included in (public) models - or at least included (mechanistically) by those who are switched on to teleconnections. I suspect this conversation is for another place though ...

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    2 hours ago, Southender said:

    Something like this?

    http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_3d.php

    thanks Southender - looks interesting, but not quite what I was thinking of (unless I just couldn't see the controls) - I was thinking of a model that would allow you to slice down through one 3d image (taking a vertical section or plane, if you like, so as to see what is happening at different heights) - I realise that it would require a lot of data/bandwidth to do in realtime. I have seen some 3d representations of what happens to the vortex in a warming event somewhere - a smaller representation of different sliders over the UK is what I would find very interesting...

    Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Barking_Mad said:

    Thanks for this. I struggle to get my head round this in a flat top down view as it's just a 1D image. How does all this look if you were to draw it from a side on 2D view? 

    You appear to be missing a dimension BM! I also sometimes wonder whether a 3-d representation (in 2-d of course - not talking holograms) of model output is available (to the public) - it would make things a lot clearer to me (possibly). A 3-d representation of a slider would make an interesting video - does anyone know of one?

    • Like 1
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