Devonshire
-
Posts
122 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by Devonshire
-
-
19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:
This thread is a mix of analysis and the occasional toys out of prams. We’re not the BBC giving a forecast . And the ups and downs and some of the melodrama and humour in here are part and parcel of the success of these forums .
Coldies in here are not your average members of the public , the majority are snow lovers who are passionate and so no I don’t want a dry humourless emotionless thread just discussing the track of a low.
Yes of course you want to see some analysis and there’s lots of that in here, but at times it’s going to happen that we might lose it and and have the occasional moan.
I think you are bang-on - although some shouldn't be surprised at being called out as 'towel-tossers', toy-chuckers' and - dare I say it 'bed-wetters' (no offence meant against any genuinely affected enuresis sufferers.
back to models - my flabber was pleasantly gasted by tonight's ECM run - later stages. Has anyone got any stats about 10 day verification gfs vs ecm ops?
-
2
-
-
Am novice, so be kind if I am fantasising - but could that suggest the possibility of a cut-off Iceland high coming up?
-
2
-
-
Casper the Ghost points the way at T96
-
7
-
1
-
-
5 minutes ago, Decemberof2010 said:
So, within a few posts we get told it's a move closer to the euros, and another post saying it's an awful run. Very confusing for people like me who know a fraction of the things people on here do!
Love this site but it can be hard work at times
I can identify with this. I make sense of it in this way: some commentators sit back and look at trends in particular models as well as movements between the models to or away from each other and particular solutions while others fixate on the latest run - reading the former can be very illuminating, the latter less so. Last winter I discovered the 'ignore user' function (hover over a poster's info) - I soon moved up to 9 pages of ignored users!! It makes for a much less frustrating read - and much more informative when something is 'on the cards' and the forum comes alight. (I also wonder if mods might consider adding a metric to posters' info-panels beside their posts, indicating how many members ignore them! - maybe a step too far?! - please feel free to 'ignore' me!)
In terms of what the models are doing at the moment, as has been pointed out, they have been struggling to 'sniff out' a strongly-likely and consistent solution going forward - something they will try to do even when there is no such thing, i.e., when there is weak 'momentum' in the atmosphere in our neck of the woods (for want of a more technical term) and things really could go one of very many ways. Anyway, that's how I make sense of frustrating patterns of comments.
-
1 hour ago, bluearmy said:
on plenty of occasions where uncertainty has reigned, we have seen the mean end up closest to verifying as opposed to the clusters or ops.
ahhh - now that I can appreciate: verification stats of mean versus op, but isn't it in the nature of clusters that there are more than one - you therefore have to choose which cluster to assess for verification - I am in danger of disappearing up a black hole at this point ... but having worked with multivariate modelling in a totally different field I really do like cluster analysis, and you can get an idea of (or indeed actually calculate) a mean from clusters, but in no way can infer clusters (or any information about distribution) from a sole mean. There, the bee firmly out of the bonnet!
-
25 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Both the mean and clusters are of use - after all, how many times have we seen the modelling hone in in on a solution which ends up a half way house between op runs. There are no ‘hard and fast rules’.
I have enormous respect for your meteorological input (as with many on here) - but from a statistical point of view, surely the clusters will always provide more information about what is going on than a mean - isn't that a pretty hard and fast rule?
-
3
-
-
2 hours ago, Devonshire said:
Tentatively - isn't current solar cycle position a good match for cycle 19 (i.e., Winter 1962/63)?!
I might have phrased this better: I believe we are at a similar pre-minimum stage in the cycle as winter '62/'63 (cycle 19) - in response to Yarmy's point about geomagnetic energy lagging solar cycle (and implication that most favourable solar-related conditions for harsh UK winter are a little post-minimum). Our harshest winter in last 100 years came just pre-minimum.
-
16 hours ago, Yarmy said:
Edit: I'd also say that we are on the wrong side of solar min for it to be a good match with 09/10. Geomagnetic activity lags a few years.
Tentatively - isn't current solar cycle position a good match for cycle 19 (i.e., Winter 1962/63)?! Although we could do with QBO going strongly easterly and La Nina being rather weak for a better match. (It is interesting to note also that the cycle 19 minimum came off the back of a VERY high maximum - unlike current cycle). For what all these things are worth.
-
2
-
-
On 20/08/2017 at 15:42, snowwman said:
it might indicate a tendency for a more Southerly- tracking jet this year. The jet seems to have flowed- around the edges of this blob over the years, and this resulted In December 2015 being record- breakingly mild. If the anomaly stays where it is this year, however, we may be in for a very diiffent December, and winter generally.
This accords with my views - based on my reading re: solar/lunar/Earth dynamics and cycles. Sorry for an enigmatic post, but I've come hotfoot here after looking for a winter thread (prob a bit too soon) - via a search for White Christmas odds! A southerly jet with regular incursions from a very cold Arctic/Northern Europe is my punt for what is on the cards. Mods: feel free to move this somewhere more appropriate.
-
4
-
-
18 minutes ago, Dean E said:
with Sweden and Norway actually having above average temperatures at times.
Sorry, I am going to have to 'call' you on this, (especially as it may be of use in your 3rd year project
) - the nature of statistics includes the very high likelihood (i.e., near-certainty) that for any significant period there will be above as well as below average readings! I am sure I might make this model-related, let's see: yes, when considering the model output for a given run, notice that the mean temperature for ... (goes off to make a cup of tea) ...
-
2
-
-
12 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:
So surely the law of averages ought to suggest that we will see another decent winter before 2020.
I would think solar cycle more worth pinning hopes on that the law of averages - and that looks promising between now and 2020
-
2
-
-
16 minutes ago, winterof79 said:
Sorry for my ignorance!
Possibility of the warm front moving up from the South engaging colder air in situ.
No intention to suggest ignorance! - probably the opposite; those more experienced and with the knowledge often throw out a one-liner without realising the analysis in their head doesn't automatically leap into the minds of those viewing. For instance on the chart you posted there appeared to be 4 different fronts in close proximity (from my schoolboy geography) and one static chart doesn't tell me what is going where, what with the East-West to-ing and fro-ing - there might be an interesting story in there but I wouldn't be able to guess!
It often feels as though there is a communal attempt at Haiku formulation going on once the one-liners really start flowing.
-
1
-
-
2 hours ago, winterof79 said:
Movement from the South
Umm - movement of what, from where, to where, with what possible effect?? (I realise yours isn't the only 1-liner in here this morning, but it is rather perplexing - this is the model discussion thread after all!)
-
6
-
-
15 minutes ago, Tristrame said:
If you ever read the U.S technical discussions on how they put a forecast together (they're publicly available on wundergound) you'll see them dump one model in favour of another or blend them together with a human decision
It goes on all the time
It goes on here in this forum
People looking at weather tools for years or decades have the experience to call these things
Hence never despair with what one run shows
... and to continue the logic: never despair (or be overly optimistic) over what one official agency or 'expert' forecasts at any particular time!
-
2
-
-
14 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:
We often complain about zonality being dire for cold but surely the pattern we are stuck in all winter is much worse
At least we might get some weather to discuss whether it be rain or wind. Is there anyone here became a weather enthusiast from watching anticyclonic gloom?
I for one have been loving the crisp bright sunny days and heavy frosts here on Dartmoor! Frankly, have read enough posts for last two months bemoaning the imminent return of wet, mild zonality that never turns up. Snow forecast here again this Thus am. What's not to like?! I only believe the models up to about 48 hrs this winter ...
-
9
-
-
- Popular Post
59 minutes ago, SnowMania said:Thats quite an injection of 850's coming out of Canada into the North Atlantic at +168 ECM!
Most of Europe back into the freezer.
Is it just me - or does that ridge look like a poor little squirrel holding up it's last nut of the winter, only to find that it's all gone bar a little bit of shell??
-
26
-
7 hours ago, Abyss said:
This Winter was a massive fail in terms of LRF from the Met Office concerning front loaded cold. That is a FACT
Actually - no, it is not fact (even if you choose to capitalise the word). I may not be a model-interpretation expert but I do have a basic grasp of logic and rhetoric:
1. Since we are nowhere near the halfway mark of winter, you cannot say that we have not had/will not have a 'front-loaded winter' - it may still turn out that way if we get a sudden development of 'proper winter';
2. We may yet get all the way through winter with no more significant frosts 'down south' - in that case, we (southerners) will have had a 'front-loaded winter' (if not a spectacular one);
3. It may turn out that we had a front-loaded winter in terms of blocking patterns over/North of UK offering the *potential* for cold - we may not get these for rest of winter.
I am as disappointed as many that we have not had serious cold/snow yet (well, maybe not as disappointed as many on here!), but lets not trash the LRFs just yet.
Let's wait and see ...
-
6
-
-
I just saw a report of a paper suggesting that solar flares come in patterns that make them predictable to some extent:
https://arxiv.org/pdf/1612.03504v1.pdf
Its too technical for me, but in the right hands it might be interesting as input to experimental/cutting edge models having some sort of short-term utility (esp regarding impact on terrestrial/satellite electrical systems - but also storm intensity/tacks?
A similar patterning was reported last year - this link explains it with a video for the hard-of-thinking like me!:
-
1 hour ago, snowsummer said:
I've been attempting to understand the connections between solar winds,polar stratospheric clouds sunspot numbers etc and the effects on our weather (or more importantly our winters!) could someone please point me in the right direction to learn more? thank you
Hi SS - I started a thread on this a week or two back:
-
2
-
-
34 minutes ago, bluearmy said:
Otherwise it just becomes 'anarchy' ??
sadly, just Muppetry - the 'ignore user' function is great for this thread, but every now and then I get to see what Kermit and Fozzie and the rest are up to when they are quoted by more sensible members (up to three pages of ignored users now in a little over a week!) - hint for casual observers of this forum: register and you get to 'hide' serial offenders!
... I know, model comment only ... apologies to sensible posters ...
-
5
-
-
3 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
I'm sure I have read and seen similar posts like this one for quite a while now and it just not quite happened unfortunately. We have had quite a few missed opportunities now that you wonder whether the tide is turning.
My understanding from having read carefully the posts of the more experienced/better informed posters is that the daily models have not been expected to resolve the situation suggested by the background signals YET - though we should be soon approaching that time wrt mid-December. Until then it difficult to remain calm while the daily model outputs roll out. There seems to have been a definite outbreak of Pre-Midwinter Tension on the forum of late!
-
3
-
-
2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:
The major issue has been a disconnect between science areas but this too is being addressed
That sounds interesting GF - can you say any more?!
-
Thanks for some interesting info jonboy. Re:
35 minutes ago, jonboy said:unless we are able to predict flairs then it has little impact on long range forecasting.
I think this gets to the issue - if planetary alignments, and more specifically the circuits (magnetic and otherwise), do indeed influence the likelihood of flares, then I wonder how long it will be until this can be incorporated in short and medium-term forecasts in a meaningful/useful way. I would think the precise orientation to Earth and timing would be the tricky part in any prediction though (as opposed to a general increased likelihood of flaring)
-
After some musings in the Model thread about up-ticks in solar activity and the possible (dire!) effects on an upcoming potential cold spell I wondered if this topic might be worthy of it's own thread (I wasn't sure if I was being ticked off for posting inappropriately in the Model thread, but then couldn't find an appropriate thread!). I will repost a link to a video that discusses the effects of geomagnetic storms on tropical storm development on Earth:
The question is posed: what is the point of giving credence to long-range (Earth) weather forecasts if sudden bursts of solar activity can lead to big changes in weather patterns, seemingly 'out of the blue'. (Allied to this are issues of solar cycles and cloud cover - but I guess this is getting into climate - and I am really interested in weather here). Perhaps more of a practical question is: how can forecasting models (Earth weather) - and forecasters - account for and incorporate space weather into short, medium and long-term forecasts?
Any thoughts?
ps - don't expect me to respond to technical questions on this thread - I am just an interested layman!
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Thank you - lots of info there - I will put aside some time to study it!