[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

apologies for double post

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

57 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

What I don't get is why do lrf's when something like one unforeseen tropical storm or a slight uptick in solar flares could potentially derail the whole forecast. Sounds like a thankless task to me lol.

This thought has occurred to me at times - it's an interesting one. There is a great video on youtube about the link between solar-induced geomagnetic storms and storm development:

more interesting is that fact that 'solar upticks' seem to appear with planetary alignments - this suggests that long-range weather models might be able to incorporate some element of potential solar influence - although how it would be incorporated is beyond my level of expertise. It would be interesting to know if any weather models do incorporate this type of link: planetary alignment -> solar uptick -> storm activity.

For our cold hopes, it is worth bearing in mind that for a little while there has been an 'earth-facing-solar-quiet' in operation, that dampens sunspot activity when they face earth - so the particular sunspot may well go to sleep for a while!

Picked all this up from Suspicious Observers: http://www.suspicious0bservers.org/

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It doesn't go out far enough but all 3 models will sink the high consistently in the next few days and that's what'll verify.

Thank you - I am learning so much here. Are you allowed to tell us if it will snow on Christmas day in Devon?

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

SInker again - deffo think we can assume its going to go that way now

Is that on the UKMO too? I haven't seen later charts posted ...

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

39 minutes ago, Snow Grain said:

I would stick with what john Hammond said, the met office have far more information.

Except if you are talking about his current/latest Weather for the Week Ahead on iPlayer , while saying the mild solution was more likely, he rounded that off with a pointed recognition that a slight shift in the pattern led to the possibility of colder development - with a lovely looking graphic by way of demonstration. It is the latter (outside?) possibility that the models appear to be trending towards now...

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

early reaches the point of no return...

Steve, could you put a little more meat on the bones please?

[Model Output Discussions 06z 04/11/16]

7 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

So this is yesterday mornings ECM 00hrs run to T144hrs, note the low over the central USA, much flatter and the downstream response with the low in the Atlantic. And then look at the change in todays T120hrs to the same time, that's why that central portion of the USA is crucial to events down stream:

Yesterdays  ECM 00hrs to T144hrs:                  Todays ECM00hrs to T120hrs:

The more amplitude we can squeeze out upstream the better chance of getting the more favourable cut back in the jet towards the UK later in the run and more chance of advecting some colder air in from the e/ne.

Thank you Nick, that is just the type of model commentary that I come to this forum for: informative as to what is going on and maybe in the pipeline for us, while also educational for a newbie like me - more please! (and yes - I am learning lots from a few other posters too!)