JBMWeatherForever
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Posts posted by JBMWeatherForever
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Does logic suggest that if there were more official stations today, then the official highest temperature would have been higher ? If it does then logic must also therefore suggest that if there were the same number of official stations in the past as today, then the official highest temperatures recorded in the past would also have been higher.
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Monday 39.1C Cambridge
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Amber warning for 75mph winds overnight Sunday into Monday for Isle of Man ! Has it been named yet as Franklin ?
The snow in the IOM today to lower levels than forecast, in some parts of the Island, is something that does sometimes occur, because of factors such as local topography and also sometimes because of evaporative cooling. The precipitation this morning became increasingly heavy bringing the snow level down and we hit the sweet spot as far as the front was concerned this morning. The wind direction is also a significant factor in border line situations on the Island as far as snow level is concerned, that's why in a North Easterly wind Peel to Ronague has the worst snow, in a South Easterly, Kirk Michael to Ballaugh, and in a Westerly based wind its Eastern parts of the island that have snow to the lowest levels. In each case they are the parts of the Island furtherest from the sea, taking into account the prevailing wind direction. (at that time) .
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In the Isle of man we had an amber warning issued by our met office this afternoon at 3pm for gusts of 75mph overnight Sunday into Monday, and this currently looks to be easily achievable. Been an interesting day here with heavy snow during this morning!
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Yesterdays trend looks like it is for real and the pace of change should start to gather speed now. From the pattern indicated, it seems the precursor to a significant northerly outbreak. The progressive GFS should start to show this very soon, for the months end. HOPEFULLY !
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The GFS 12z has been brewing for a little while. The first of many. Seems many have become dispondent by the Christmas coldspell letdown, and now as a consequence many laugh as soon as another cold scenario starts to show itself. That's human nature, but mother nature always has the last laugh. Severe cold spells often arrive at quite short notice, and the next such cold spell is probably going to arrive much sooner than some think. Roll on 1947 !!!
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Not surprised by the UKMO, and will not be surprised at all if we now see the ECM change direction back to a colder outlook. One thing I think is logical to say is that if the models still aren't settled on Christmas, then I don't think we should be worrying to much about New Year just yet.
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I'm hearing that the charts won't change much now up to Christmas and that it is finally settled. Perhaps ? But its in the near term in such set ups that positive changes happen with regards to disruption. I still think that come boxing day morning there is a reasonable chance of snowfall for some. (Still 4 days away) . The further outlook beyond then can so easily swing back to cold from our current position, and it may still be what we end up with !
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Seems that the under estimation of the block is finally starting to be reflected. Still some way to go though before they refect what we will actually see at Christmas. White Boxing day on the cards for some, and still a good chance of a white Christmas over some of the northern half of the country too !!! Will not be surprised is some really wintry runs start to appear soon synoptically, including with the ECM !
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The ECM will be fine, the trend is our friend with GFS the more progressive model now joining the Christmas party.
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I remember reading William Foggitt's diary's years ago, about references to Severe Cold spells often being proceeded by large stagnant anti-cyclones which produced dense fog, but which then eventually gave way, repositioning, to allow very colder conditions and snow to arrive from the artic. I wonder ?
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As we get closer to the reliable timeframe is it that the models are only now starting to fully factor in the cold block over Scandinavia, with the jet starting to be pushed further south and disruption increasing. Are things about to get much more interesting next week ?
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Yes those upgrades almost in the short term on the UKMO FAX run are sign posting the charts we are now seeing further out. The pendulum seems to be swinging toward a more prolonged cold outlook. And given those synoptics a snowy outlook for the UK next week too. Also getting such deep cold in place to our N E so early bodes very well indeed.
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GFS seems to have been very consistently in modeling of a scadi high for a little while now. This signal is continuing to strengthen.
Significant cold building to are North East, and an increasing signal for the weather to start to come from that direction fairly soon, what's not to like !!!
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Certainly the models seem to be continually pointing to a cold end to November !
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Potential for a fair deal of early autumn warmth across the UK in the next few weeks. The colder northerly outbreaks seem to be trending less significant and high pressure more dominant.
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Seems to be cross model agreement now for a nice end to Summer, and will be surprised if temperature's aren't in the warm category for much of the country with the synoptics now being shown, especially the west, and even eastern areas look like joining in eventually.
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As Paul Gambochini would say it's now back to the 80's, and with some classics about to be played. Thames Streamers, Battleground Snow, and eventually significant blizzards ! Both Frankie and the man from Del Monte says yes !!!
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The models are starting to smell the coffee, and a good cuppa it's going to be. The next few weeks looks like being exceptional for weather watching, especially if you like very cold and snowy weather.
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ECM is closer to how this will pan out come the end of the week. And not because it's a better outcome but because historically it has always been better at reading a breakdown "if it happens" ?
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Once the cold becomes inbeded then any breakdown will gradually be pushed back. This is going to be a longer cold spell than some seem to think !
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Usually when watching for a noteworthy cold spell I watch the GEM with some nervousness as it is often more realistic and smells the coffee when the other models show Narnia. So the fact that GEM is showing the best solutions at the moment gives me more confidence than I would normally have that a significant cold spell is on its way.
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I personally see a trend reversal beginning.
Narnia synoptics imminent !
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2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:
Well, we were told by some that the one thing that won’t be happening is any Atlantic influence - hmmmmm!
Things may change, but it’s looking like a below average first half of January - but nothing exceptional like we were led to believe by some.
The weather is a great leveller to those who make bold claims, no matter how good the signals look!
Onwards and upwards!
Unless i'm very much mistaken today is the 3rd of January. We will see what the first half of January was like after the first half of January !!!
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Model Output Discussion - Deeper into Autumn
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yes, looks increasingly interesting into December. Building blocks starting to come together for a cold spell perhaps before the end of the first week of December. The growing trend for cold continues !