[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

Looks like the cold is going to be getting the upper hand across most of the British Isles during next week. May be winters last hurrah, with snow events looking quite possible. After that though and its beginning to look like April may miss out on spring and go straight into summer. We may get to use our Sledge and our BBQ in close succession in April !

 

[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

The GFS has been continually showing this Easter cold spell, and it looks increasingly possible from the other models today aswell !  All things do seem to come in three's. A potent northeasterly very much a possibility now. What a great month we have had for coldies with March now looking like it will finish very cold and early April continuing the same way.       

[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

Looks like winter hasn't finished with us yet. Certainly a significant trend today towards a return of the beast !  

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

I personally think the ECM may be where the others follow. Not many days ago all the models forecast prolonged cold due to a renewed wave from the north east. The ECM is just reverting back to the original solution as we now close in on what really happens with the depression to the south. I would not bet against the ECM solution.

 

 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Looking at the models tonight and I really think this is now looking more and more like a spell which lasts at least two weeks. Lots of opportunities for snow events in the next week or so too. In fact after the slightly less cold (but still cold conditions) make it into the UK from the South, every chance now of renewed very cold air returning from the north east next week. The current very cold air may even hold on in the north, on current trends. 

[Model output discussion - the beast arrives]

Models trending back to a prolonged spell of cold again for all after next weekend. Some milder air in the south for a time but blink and you will miss it. Severe Easterly spell followed by Blizzards in places (maybe two Blizzards), followed by renewed cold weather and either very cold north easterly's or the Polar Express joining in on the party. Next week (5 to 12 March) may also see some very low minimums under the slack air once the cold has re-asserted itself.  EPIC !

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

So the models are now showing an end to the Exceptionally cold spell by the end of the week for much of the UK. Well we will see won't we. I certainly wouldn't bet too much on it happening, not yet anyway. If anything I think what this means is rather than a two week spell of exceptional cold with bouts of snow showers from the east, we now have the real prospect of lows from the south actually reaching the uk rather than staying to the south over France, and although the South may see some less cold air for at least a time, the new synoptics look to me like a cocktail for "Snowmagedon". Is the effect of the, by then, entrenched severe cold air being factored in by the models? I don't think so!  They nearly always don't factor this in until near term. We know that the eventual outcome is unlikely to be as shown tonight, with many factors still to be calculated by the models before the final outcome is accurately predicted. Next week is not a normal situation, and we all know how the models react to something which is far from the norm. I for one think that the end result is going to be EPIC, at the end of an EPIC week ! So I therefore hope that everyone has an EPIC nights sleep!  On a final note, it seems that those that were last to except the upcoming severe cold spell was actually on its way, seem all to ready to except its demise and seem to be all to quickly convinced of this !  Lots of snow to come under the bridge I think before the outcome for the end of the week is finally known.    

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Just don't know what to say this morning except for wonderful, amazing and epic !  What we have all hoped for for many years is now about to come to fruition. It is so good reading everyones informative and exciting posts regarding the latest synopics. Either route this spell takes  ECM or GFS looks amazing, depending on where you live. Can' wait till next week !

 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Totally amazing model output. This is going to be a very memorable event. It also looks quite possible now that next week is just the start and that we get further reloads of brutal cold after that as well.  Really think the met office need to be warning the public more strongly than at present, as this is dangerous weather which is now almost certainly on its way !  This is once when the tabloids headlines will more than verify !

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Seems that some are talking about the demise of a cold spell that hasn't happened yet and isn't going to until the end of the week. But arrive it will ! To much notice being take by some of individual runs when it is the overall picture presented that needs noting.  A very clear signal now for Retrogression and locked in cold. Locked in meaning a prolonged period of very cold weather from the east, and a good chance of something exceptional.

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

I think its fair to say that the Beast from the East is about to be unleashed !  The chances of a severe wintery spell seem quite significant too. And remember that it is certainly not too late for such a spell of cold, you only have to look back to 2013 as proof of that ! 

[Model output discussion - Post SSW - Will it turn cold?]

Easterly commencing by the end of next week seems the inevitable outcome, despite the models recent games. Looking forward to some seriously cold weather.  And hopefully with a little luck the easterly will now be gradually brought forward too !

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

Looks like that Easterly we have all been waiting for is about to finally make its appearance !  Lots of cold weather to look forward to in the coming weeks,  and probably the coldest part of winter still to come ! 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

The models seem to by backtracking again as I thought they would. I just didn't think it would start quite so soon!  This has to mean that the end result will be much better for those who like the cold ! What a great weeks weather we have to look forward too !! 

[Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?]

The cold spell which is about to commence is unusual in how it has arrived and may well surprise some people with the amount of snow received during next week. I also am not convinced about the modellng of this complicated set up for later next week, the models bias looks to be coming into play by then. The end of the week could end up being very interesting.

[Model output discussion - mid January]

And so the wonderful near term trend continues, and Britain grows ever nearer to disappearing into the deep freeze by stealth.  I think there is only one way this is going now, when you follow this trend to its logical conclusion. A deeply cold beast from the east ! And perhaps some battleground events aswell !

[Model output discussion - mid January]

We may yet snatch victory from the jaws of defeat. Having just looked at the output for the first time in more than a day, I am now quite upbeat from a cold perspective. That Scandinavian high is looking stronger again, and we maybe about to go into a cold spell at short notice. Now wouldn't that be a nice change ?

[Model output discussion - mid January]

Just feel that slowly and rather awkwardly the models seem to be wanting to provide us with an easterly by or before mid February. If this winter's failed easterly's hadn't happened, I think everyone would feel more upbeat about the outlook for February, as there seems a good chance that the final third of winter may be the coldest.  Will we finally get that easterly, well I think we are certainly in with a good fighting chance !

[Short range model discussion - into 2018]

The low for Wed Night/ Thursday morning now looks like bringing serious blizzards to Scotland. Temporarily milder in southern parts (A milder blip).  But that low will also aid in pulling deeper cold air south thereafter. Potential for a lot of snow over lots of the British Isles in the next week or so !

[Model output discussion - mid-winter]

I think the only IMBYism is from those who are still managing to be so negative when there is such a wintery looking outlook for next week for at least most of the British Isles, and perhaps eventually for all of the British Isles. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

As myself and others have previously said, the models do not handle easterly at all well. The more from the norm that the signals are, then the more likely that the models are going to have problems and behave erratically. I think now though the signals are becoming so strong that all of the models will start to show easterly solutions, the trigger point for a full blown easterly being late next week. 

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

What I find strange is that so many people are surprised by the latest ECM. Proper easterly's never come easily, but I think after much messing about the models will now start to firm up on our upcoming easterly and start showing some exciting synoptics.  

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

From the undercutting will come the full blown easterly. ECM hasn't got anything wrong yet because its all still in the future. I'm still looking forward to a prolonged January easterly.    

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

I for one am looking forward to battleground snow followed by a prolonged spell of cold from the east. Unfortunately though I don't think the pessimists will withdraw their negativity, they will just move it on to something else to be pessimistic and negative about !

[Model output discussion - into 2018]

Looks more and more like a classic 80's battleground scenario about to unfold later next week, and that means snow, lots of snow !   The ECM is always the model to follow in such circumstances. The GFS will eventually come on board and probably start showing even better synoptics than the other models.(I would not be surprised). But all of the models do struggle at times in providing the evolution of an easterly as apposed to their default. Who's to say that even the ECM and GEM are still underplaying things from what will eventually unfold.