[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

I think coldiest are going to have lots to be happy about shortly. The trend of the block becoming stronger has been gradual and continual since yesterday, and if this continues there will come a pivot point when we are back to a full blown easterly just as the models were originally showing. Also I think the countryfile weather is behind the curve. BBC's further outlook tomorrow may well have a different tale to tell.   

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Historically its quite usual for the block to be underestimated , especially by the GFS. I must admit that it has been quite surprising to see so many throwing in the towel before the fight has even began !  Looking better and better for the end of the week, as the trend continues towards widespread snowfall, and the cold actually winning !!!   

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Really like the way things have trended overnight. That block seems to be putting up more and more of a fight. ECM now showing an easterly over much of the country on Friday. If the trend continues then widespread snowfall is very much on the cards. Also it's looking increasingly good for cold weather around Christmas. The charts are beginning to get into a festive mood.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Looks like the trend is back to being our friend.  We may soon be looking at snow events later next week. Beyond then if the Atlantic does go under, a very wintry Christmas period is a distinct possibility. If this trend continues we are going to have some classic output shortly. 

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

ECM looks very good to me. Battleground scinario's bring with them significant snowfall. Lets hope its more of a war though with lots of battles on or around the UK as we head into December. Also don't the models in these circumstances often underestimate the stubbornness of the cold block that will be in place by then. I think there is certainly plenty of time for westward corrections to be made.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

GFS at last joining in the party. And many of those on the fence, may well have fallen off it tonight !  No offence!

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Not checked the output since this morning, but very pleased to see that things are coming along nicely now.  Blocked well before Christmas seems to be the repeated scenario, and lots of very cold air being shown for Europe once we get that easterly flow, giving the potential of some very cold air for us eventually.  I can hear Bing Crosby tuning up his voice already !

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

The ECM starting to look very interesting for the second week in December onwards.  Hopefully the GFS will start getting into a Christmassy mood shortly,I think it might. Then we may well be staring down the barrel of a mid December direct hit from the "Beast from the East" !   Its December so, put up the tree - check, make my first mince pies - check, write to Santa - check.  Dear Santa, please can we have some Narnia scenes delivered to the UK before Christmas !   

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

Like the ECM run and where it seems to be heading. Lots of very cold air not far away and if the run went out any further I think it would be pulling that cold air into the UK. Overall looks promising for coldies heading into December, very promising indeed !   

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

The models take longer to reach a consensus when data is different from the norm, hence the large scatter in predicted outcomes. So I think a period of significant cold looks likely to develop eventually, and even during next week, what was being forecast just a day or two ago as a gradual warm up from the south is now gradually being revised to a continuation of below average temperatures which I think will gradually become colder during next week with the continued easterly starting to pull in colder air again.

[The hunt for cold - Model discussion (late November)]

The pendulum seems to be swinging back now towards deep cold by the months end. The Atlantic has never looked like coming back in anyway, but I think the great charts we were treated to a few days ago may soon be back on the table. Really like the projected set up for the end of the month, as I think it is very close to becoming epic, and for me at the moment, we are again now trending in the right direction.  

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

All the models seemed to have currently stepped back from a smooth route to deep cold. They still haven't taken away that possibility altogether though, far from it. Just a weaker signal currently, which I think will become stronger again within a few days. The modelling of retrogression even when it is about to unfold, historically isn't usually straight forward, and I think we are just seeing that in the models at present as they struggle with what isn't the norm. I still think we have a good chance of tapping into deep cold before November is out.

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Increasingly exciting charts seem to be heralding the start of another spell of classic weather. Looking increasingly like 2018 has plenty more excitement in store for us. It's been a great year for weather enthusiasts with beasts from the east, followed by an amazing summer. Things now look like turning cold and then very cold. 

 

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

I really like the way the models seem to be bit by bit moving in the direction of a cold outbreak from somewhere between east and north before November is out. As is often the case in such situations, we may even be nearer to the start of a cold spell than is currently being suggested. Things are looking very interesting from a cold weather perspective.  

 

[Model output discussion - The Hunt For Cold]

Looks like an increasing possibility of an easterly from or soon after mid month ! 

 

[Short range model discussion - into 2018]

Earlier I was hoping that the gfs was going to be wrong but worrying that it would be right. It now looks like it is just about on the money and the UKMO fax is now showing that nasty little low. I particularly don't like the strength of the N/NE'ly on the back of the low - Potentially some serious gusts then for many of us!  

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

Helene still looks strong to me when it hits the UK as an x tropical storm next week. The track currently shown by the National hurricane centre takes it right into western parts. Still one to watch closely !

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

The Artic Sea Ice extent seems to be back within the standard 1981- 2010 average deviation in the graph I am looking at https://nsidc.org/data/seaice_index 

The question I was raising was therefore whether the sea ice melt would indeed have as much of an effect this winter on the northern hemisphere cold air distribution. Some effect, Yes certainly, but more effect this year than previous ?  

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

I note what has been said about the possible impacts of the Artic Sea Ice on the Northern Hemisphere cold air distribution, but will this be as big a factor for this year, as I see the artic sea ice extent is now back within the standard deviation of the 1981 - 2010 average ? 

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

Overall it looks like the next hot spell may eventually include northern and western parts as well !  

[Model output discussion - summer rolls on]

I personally see the overall trend as we head towards August to be one for the heat over more southern and eastern parts of the UK to spread back to the rest of the British Isles. At the moment August looks to me like seeing a gradual strengthening of High pressure on the whole with more widespread heat as a result. The hottest part of summer I think is yet to come!

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

It seems that the slightly cooler temperatures forecast for northern parts of the country in the next few days seem to be getting revised up with time, so that we may not see anything much of a cool down at all, before the next reload of heat at the end of the week. Next weekend and beyond is now looking very hot indeed. What a spell of weather we are having !  

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Still very likely to see low thirty's later next week in some Southern and central parts !  Also no breakdown in the foreseeable !

[Model output discussion 14/04/18]

Starting to look like the return to more Atlantic based weather later next week may be short lived with the jet trending ever further north again. If the current trend continues we may yet just see a continuation of this settled fine spell except perhaps the far NW. The jet may instead just have the effect of pulling up increasingly warmer conditions from the south around mid month.

[Model output discussion - after the beast, what next?]

Seems to have been support for a little while for a fast warm up in the second week of April !  But now its looking quite likely.  Looks like winters last hurrah in the next few days. Then later next week its time to dust off those BBQ's, and Beach Boy Albums, and put on those trendy sun glasses, well at least for a few days anyway !