[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 hour ago, BlueSkies_do_I_see said:

ECM shows significant upgrades for cold prospects this morning.

I have been reading this thread for 4 years and I have often read people say "get the cold in place first and will follow". I think the next chapter in this winter saga is being modelled by ECM this morning.

This at T216

By T240 we are being attacked from the east too.

Its the same as always a near miss for the UK,the cold air always to far out east.also notice the Azores high coming back in. We are just in southeast winds in nothing particularly cold.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Not a lot of comments this morning, was a good GFS but the ECM not quite as good as lately this morning although still cold.

Yes how cold..will it be if the ECM is correct?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, Seasonality said:

That it is rather chilly in De Bilt in the Netherlands.

So why we looking at Netherlands, doesn't mean much for the UK does it?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

7 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Very cold set again in de Bilt, op and control are absolutely frigid.

Sorry what is this showing ali?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

All models are cold next week or very cold,  especially at nighttime. 

Kind of -5/6 at night?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, Ali1977 said:

If the ECM is right we are on the edge of that yes, potentially a notable spell. Still need to work out how next week goes yet though.

That's right still a bit up in the air,but would u say that cold is certain for next week?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Correct me if I'm wrong,but looking at the models are we not on the edge of a two week cold spell?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

4 minutes ago, radiohead said:

Plenty of surface cold at T192 but we've lost the cold upper air. High still anchored around Scotland. Mostly dry. Brrrr.

What would be the daytime maxes here you think?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Just now, MR EXTREMES said:

look at this from ecm and at 120hrs epic run coming

Wow yes off to a quick start, -10 uppers already there! Lol

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Thinking about it,I guess it wouldn't be as severe as December 2010 but temps nationwide would only be 2/3c I would imagine.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, JoeShmoe said:

No it wouldn't - not even close 

Why u don't think it wouldn't be then?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

2 minutes ago, warrenb said:

To be honest, after 240 the GFS is just a mess.

Yes to be honest,I think the 6z could be a very misleading run.I still feel the easterly is very much on! And the ECM later will put it in its place

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Nah - the control is only ever with looking at when it shows a cold solution !

What do you mean,I was just saying the control is terrible in comparison to the op

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

59 minutes ago, Ravelin said:

It's positive if you want the GFS to follow the ECM solution, the latter of w

Well the control is way off the mark,with the high collapsing into southern Europe... Mmmm

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, Ravelin said:

GFS continues with subtle changes at t108.

0Z   6Z

Higher heights close to Iceland and the low over the Med digging slightly further south into N.Africa.

 So is this positive for cold?

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

The signal is there for high pressure to move in then move east northeastward,the only confusion is that the gfs has it more east and south,rather then north and east like the ECM. This is crucial as to whether we get cold or not,we don't want the gfs to be correct as the Cold will escape us and filter down across Germany and France and northern Spain.this is usually what happens here sadly in the UK while we watch Europe freeze, we are stuck in mild southwesterly winds. So I do hope the ECM is correct with its positioning of the high.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

The ECM is great again this morning let's just hope its right. It looks very cold and increasingly snowy!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

14 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Could this bring any snow down to the south east of England..

Well as with any northerly,favoured areas are Scotland and coastal areas. But with that cold over the UK there is every chance of snow.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

5 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Azores high and the euro high are ruining winter again, will they still be there in the summer? Been very quiet regarding atlantic storms, yet we still find ourselves snowless.

Yes i agree that's the problem,but wouldn't it be rare if we didn't have HP down to the Azores,it always seems to be there! Hah

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

A better looking 6z at 144, a bigger cold pool over the med.therefore lower pressure over southern Europe which is good to see.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

I think you need to rephrase that. Very few of us are missing this at all! It's very rare that we get sustained cold weather with a strong PV over Greenland, but it has and could happen again, 1987 being an example.

But your giving 1987 as a example,god that is years ago I think you should be a bit more realistic.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

The pv is not the problem this year there are other forces and not even the best lrf models or pros can figure these forces..

Well it may not be the main problem, but it certainly doesn't help our chances of cold!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

4 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Maybe a easterly mid month we could be seeing high pressure building over to the north east and low pressure undercutting going to Europe  .

Very unlikely PV looks to organized

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

I think we are all missing the trick here, as long as pressure stays low over Greenland which it looks like it will do then we will not see anything particularly cold and sustained.So to sum it up the the theme going into next week is for mainly westerly winds occasionally switching northwesterly bring the odd colder shot.. But nothing sustained all very boring really.

[Model Moans, Ramps and Banter]

The vortex is just relentless in throwing LP's our way! The outlook is poor for cold fans for the reason I just said no sustained cold coming our way,not only that also with pressure rising over southern Europe. Well let's let this rubbish winter continue