[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

5 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Yep. North westerly by 10 Jan for UK. Nice looking charts 300 plus too which would produce the goods for many here. 

Agreed.most of the UK would see temps of 4-6c next week so cold but not the very cold category.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

20 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Cold snowy weather to chase in FI again.

But the cold is here far earlier then 360 hours, although it doesn't look very cold.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

15 hours ago, chris55 said:

delete

That is about the last 3 gfs runs now,have shown cold for next week.let's hope its not wrong again!

 

 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Well that's 2 runs now vertually identical to each other,so that means it has to happen doesnt it!? 

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Sadly to see I feel what we are seeing now is the cold being put back and back even further, to the point where it actually rarely delivers. We always see this in the UK as it never gets this far west.it makes you wonder why we get so excited with the charts really.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

I would say now only 2 or 3 Perts show a cold Easterly developing later in the forecast,how can it go so wrong!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

 Wow the 6z control is looking good!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

This 6z is real terrible run even into fI, there's is way to much energy going over the top stopping pressure to rise.looks like the Atlantic has woken up really but let's hope its wrong! You have to ask yourself are the models good enough why don't they ever agree with each other! It really frustrates me I think they should just stick to 4 or 5 days ahead that way they are more likely correct! It really does frustrate me.so from what looked like a nailed on cold spell a couple of days ago has now all but vanished back to mild,I find it rather frustrating really.

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

Something to watch on the 12z is a stronger looking low of the eastern sea board at T54 could it effect the high let's hope not!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

The 12z has just started to roll out,I have a feeling we will and up with some kind of cold easterly.we can only dream its as good as the 6z if not better!

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

14 minutes ago, Southender said:

Because that was one of the coldest model runs ever seen in the history of the internet!

If you have been watching the models for years, then you just know its only one way from there and thats a watered down version at best. At worst a complete flip to mild!

Thats the UK weather for you. If something can spoil cold and snowy conditions here, 99 out of 100 times it will.

-8/-10 850's and a couple of inches of snow laying for a week will do me. Problem is its nigh on impossible just to get that, down south anyway.

 

 

Well I do realise what your saying, because we are mostly getting Atlantic driven weather.but surely sooner or later we are due a big freeze, as the last one was about 6 years! Come on 12z repeat what the 6z threw at us

[Model Output Discussion 29th December - Into mid-Winter.]

People are saying,that the 12z can't match the 6z for cold prolonged cold,I really don't agree why can't it be as good. The trend is deffinatley there for our weather to be dominated from the east!

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

Good to see the control going the same way as the op

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

My word the 6z is looking ridiculously cold!! Brr

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

Enormous cold pool to the east, let's hope it moves Westwards!

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

6z looking cold all the way to T180 due to lower pressure over Iberia. No mild blip midweek looks cold all the way.

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Gfs6z looks an upgrade on the initial northerly with the colder uppers sweeping in much quicker than the 00z run..

Agreed -10 850's almost reaching the south coast!

[Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go]

The way I see things developing is like this..we get the cold northerly around new years day probably lasting 2 or 3 days and with the threat of snow for some particularly in Scotland.as we approach midweek it turns milder with the high moving southeastward, a northwesterly wind.during the latter part of week we see a stronger ridge developing in the Atlantic initially pushing up to Greenland to allow another cold northerly to develop. What happens after this is crucial, we ideally want to see the high drift east then north, rather then east then south.I believe the latter will happen sadly which means the deep cold will escape us and Germany France and northern Spain may well see the bitter temperatures! So as I said where the high drifts later next week is crucial in terms of whether we see deep cold,or something just below average...I do hope I am wrong and we see the deep cold move westward towards us,we shall see. ☺