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Barmada_Casten

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    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Barmada_Casten

    16 hours ago, shadowfax said:

    Swing hammock has just flipped over in a big gust and will have to stay there until tomorrow 

    Just thought I'd throw my two penneth in and say I am not expecting any snow in my location south lakes. Expecting a lot of wind and rain though!! Maturity and experience has tought me that 99% of any potential snow forecast results in a major let down.

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    Thought i'd contribute....

     

    Saw about 2-4cm accumulate this morning through till around lunch which left a glorious scene here in South Lake District. Rain frll sporadically this afternoon leaving some untreated snow cover and the usual slushy mess on used roads and pavements/paths.

     

    Without a shadow of a doubt the most snow I have seen since March 2013! Haven't always been in the Lakes since then. Good, short-lived but not amazing but made the most of it anyway.....potential for more next week but won't read too much into it until nearer to the time

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

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    Everyone please calm down! This will be just another let down like any other. Keep your heads screwed on - why do you put yourself through this?!

    The north west of England sits on the receiving end of a mild Atlantic. The vast majority that live here apart from higher ground receive mild wet winters. We are not geared up for major snowfall - it is a rarity. Get a grip!!!!

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, karyo said:

    I know Cumbria has had a lot of let downs but this time it is an organised system with loads of precipitation. What makes you think that it will miss out Cumbria?

    Looking at the satellite shows how well developed the system is (currently approaching Ireland) https://en.sat24.com/en/gb/infraPolair

    Well I've had downgrades in snow intensity for my location and the heaviest precipitation appears to be Lancashire or greater Manchester. Expecting 2cm max here in south lakes.

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion - 09/12/2017 Onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    12 minutes ago, karyo said:

    I think Cumbria will do really well and there is a possibility for a bit more snow there tomorrow night into early Saturday.

    Personally living in Cumbria (south lakes) I can tell you we won't. Been here so many times before we will either miss out completely or get a minuscule amount to everyone else. Past experience has taught me to expect to be let down. 

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion 23/04/2017 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    It was initially looking like Cumbria and the Lake District was going to get a right pasting but that has def  shifted and it looks the bulk of the heavy snowfall will be more to the south of the region and going on experience is probably what will happen. Its not often when these things shift south they regress back north. I can see Cumbria (lower levels) generally either getting (a) nothing or (b) 2 - 4 cm while the rest of the region gets about 10 - 15 cm. I am already getting that sickening feeling as this happens every year to me. Devestated is not the word....

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    3 hours ago, James1979 said:

    I've been lurking since around 2003 too and mostly agree although I do recall more snowfall back in the 80s and 90s, it's become diabolical the last 4 years. As for the models, I used to get suckered in and so despondent when yet again they didn't materialise for the umpteenth time and that's turned into not flinching when I see a cold spell on the cards again, in fact I barely go in the model thread anymore, it's always jam tomorrow. I don't see the value of modelling anything over 5 days if it's so inaccurate and leading to frustration over and over. The same can be applied to summer where it now seems to see a thunderstorm is as rare as snow in the winter and yet I used to see at least a few a year. 1 decent storm in nearly a decade for me, it's unreal. As a weather lover who's followed it avidly for 31 years I cannot bear the trend for the seasons to converge to a form of warm or cold autumn and I'm sure the level of cloud has gone up!! Nothing of interest seems to happen anymore, and I think I'm giving it up finally and looking for another hobby. Please 2017 deliver something of interest to spite me.

    I remember my first winter season (03/04) on net-weather and a 'huge beast from the east' was set to bring a winter akin to that of 47 or 63, with sustained major cold and regular significant falls across the country. I fell for it hook, line and sinker......and then some more. To make things worse a couple of days before it was to set in, the the great John Kettley foretasted on BBC weather a series of Polar lows that would have brought blizzards and major snowfall to north west England and my location at the time, Lancaster.

    It all fell to pieces and nothing came of it. I smashed my sink in anger with a builders mug, it totally ruined my day.I look back now and laugh, but I was young, naive and inexperienced. As i have said it took my a long time to suss things out, which is why I made yesterdays post. I thank everyone for the very positive feedback.

    Barmada.

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    @stainesbloke exactly. I now find the ramping on the model forum quite irritating, but thankfully there are some level headed posters on there who keep things realistic. Don't want to mention names but there were a few who made it quite clear that this recent 'beasterly' would be short-lived and deliver little snowfall, and they were correct, credit to them.

    When I was younger it bothered me I must admit,but I have learned the hard way purely through past experience, I don't feel let down any more because there is nothing to be let down about. I'm not saying it will never snow here in the UK, the potential is always there, but ultimately its more unlikely than likely. 

     

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Just want to say a huge thanks and a massive congratulations to those on here who did'nt get carried away with our most recent failed 'beast from the east' which materilised to all but nothing as usual.

    I first signed up to the forum in 2003 in those following 14 winters (which is a frightening thought!), and in that time I have experienced one 'true' winter 2009-2010 and only a handful of significant snowfall events which have lead to significant accumulations - roughly 4, bearing in mind that during this time I have mostly lived in the north of England. Over the last 14 years of being 'on' net-weather, I just wanted to make a few points to some of the other, younger, maybe more naive members of the forum regarding snow and the UK. 

    • The UK may be in northern Europe but we live in a mild, wet, temperate climate. Cold snaps of cold weather with significant snowfalls are not normal they are extremely rare.
    • Model runs are not weather forecasts. I can not stress this enough. 
    • Snow is one of the most difficult forms of weather to predict with so many 'knife edge; factors that need to be inline in order for it to occur in our mild, temperate climate.
    • Never trust a snow forecast until minutes before - 'nowcasting' is essential.
    • I would say that 90-95% of predicted snaps of cold weather indicated severe snowfall and these 'beast from the east's never materialise.
    • Periods of long, sustained cold, with consistent heavy snowfall akin to that of northern Finland have occurred twice in 100 years.#
    • If you are looking for snow in the UK then it is best to go to higher ground, where snowfall is far more regular and reliable.

    If you have any more points you wish to add, feel free too. It has probably taken me this long to realise the above points myself - the days of myself getting worked up about failed over-hyped cold weather scenarios are over. It has taken 4 significant falls in 14 years to make me realise this....

    *Note/: Locations lived: Lake District, Lanacaster, Surrey, Netherlands.

    Barmada Casten

    • Like 8

    North West England Regional Weather Discussion

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 hour ago, chicken soup said:

    Don't know weather to get excited or not with this upcoming easterly...from my experience they are crap snow wise here in the northwest.

    Precisely CS,

     

    We won't benefit from it at all, best place to be will be eastern England, any wintry precipitation will break up and disintegrate once it hits the pennies. 

    Western England is horrendous for snow.

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, snowsummer said:

    Right. Staying up lampost watching for snow is one thing. But is there  anyone else on here who stays up "mod thread watching" to check how near the lampost watching is getting?!!

    When you have had 3 days of snowfall in 6 years, you kind of give up.

    I know the next forecaster period of cold weather will bring nothing for me, but plenty for everyone else i am sure.

    • Like 2

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    MY STORY:

    I have not seen significant snowfall now for 4 years. The last time was a heavy snow event which hit Cumbria in January/February 2013, which I must note melted rather quickly. And even in that event it seemed everyone else around me fared better.

    The last time I have experienced a significant, long lasting snow event was Winter 2010/2011, which was rather good, but that is some 6 years ago now.

    Every promise of snowfall I am let down, constantly, even as recent as this month when what should have been 3 days of snowfall to hit the Lakes materialised with a load of drizzle rubbish. 

    I have lived in the south east of England for 2 years and saw no snow, and literally not a flake. Yet every other winter the south-east would get bombarded with snow. I lived in the Netherlands for one winter and saw no snow.

    With the promise of an upcoming snow event I know what will happen: Everyone will get snow around me except me. It will hit all the places I have lived in the last few years and avoid me. I am sick and tired. Heres my snow record over the last 5 years, it is pathetic:

    Winter 2011/2012 Cumbria: One afternoon of snow in February which left around around 1 or 2 inches max in Bowness.

    Winter 2012/2013 Cumbria: One Afternoon of snow in January which left a large accumulation but melted the day after + One day of snow in March which left a significant accumulation but soon disapeared.

    Winter 2013/2014 Surrey: No snow at all. 

    Winter 2014/2015: Surrey: No snow at all. 

    Winter 2015/2016 Netherlands: One hour of snow which left a 'powdering.'

    Winter 2016/2017 Cumbria: No snow at all.

    5 winters with 2 days of significant snowfall. And so many let-downs.

     

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