Barmada_Casten
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Posts posted by Barmada_Casten
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1 hour ago, SP1986 said:
However it does look like it'll be the coldest period of weather since 2013
I agree but that’s hardly much to beat is it!!! Standard UK winter here - the odd cold snap with snowfalls in some places but nothing long lasting, major or significant. I am now awaiting the children to reply with their laughing emojis etc. At least when I first joined the community over 17 years ago people were far more mature.
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2 minutes ago, Day 10 said:
Cracking news in the tweet thread too now regarding major SSW! Are we on the verge of an historic Winter, it certainly has all the ingredients! It has to happen again sometime.
No we are not due a particularly cold winter with any significant major snowfalls. The ramping and hyping this winter had been obscene. Don’t fall for it.
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1 hour ago, sheikhy said:What the hecks happened to the gfs from 192 hours onwards!!way more atlantic influence!!big change!!and ukmo looks like it could topple at 144 hours!!
Absolutely not surprised here at all. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.
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The ramping on the model thread is obscene for what is essentially a bit of a cold spell, with nothing significant. Once again, any decent snowfall will be in the east, Kent etc the usual places. We as usual here will get the rough end of the deal and get nothing. I am bored of it to be honest - 30 years of this a absolute crap. In the 2019 south west snowstorm I was in a small in North Devon that received snowfall where everywhere around us got record breaking amounts. Last year I went to the Baltic’s in January as I was craving coke and snow and they head there earnest winter for decades. When the snow hits the rest of the country it will be a total media blackout for me that’s for certain. Anyway the punchline is the north west ain’t getting anything firing this so do t get your hopes up!
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13 minutes ago, Gerryhattrick said:
Hi guys experienced head here I've got a degree in mechanical engineering and I've experienced weather every day for 52 years. (sarcasm) THIS IS A MODEL DISCUSSION FORUM ie people discuss what the model shows on any particular run be it good or bad and what weather they may produce should they verify, if you feel embarrassed reading some posts or it annoys your superior intellect then do not login and especially do not disrespect posters with self righteous comments.
You clearly missed the point (again).
#sigh #totallydoesntgetit #hewillneverchange #17yearsofthis #groundhogday #givemestregnth #anyonefancyadrink?
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14 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:
I understand what you’re saying and I do agree that some people take every operational run too literally, but I think in the most part people just want to admire some of the wild and wintry output that gets shown in the extended ranges with fellow weather enthusiasts. Pretty much everyone in here knows that most of the severe and wintry output that gets shown in FI is pretty far fetched and unlikely to come to fruition, but it has been a tough year for everyone and I don’t see anything wrong with people looking for a bit of hope and joy in the model output.
I totally agree but I have always thought this thread should be for serious discussion and not for fantasising and romantacising about another winter 47/63. And I don’t mean to cause any offence to you or anyone else by saying that. However It has become a tiring never ending rollercoaster of ramping and emotions and it becomes really tedious with all the ups and downs. For a me a touch of realism would not go amidst. I often wonder what the average age of posters are and maybe I am in the wrong place - I am a member from a bygone era in the mid ‘noughties’ with the likes of Stephen Prudnece and TWS (Thunder Wintery Showers). We have all grown up now and as far as I am aware they no longer post and use the forum, maybe I should do the same. Barmada Casten.
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Guys, an experienced head here. I have been on this forum since 2003 and see this every single year. It is so bad I barely post anymore but I can’t bare it so I have logged in. Last nights posts were an outright embarrassment from some of you, completely over-hyping a slight chance of abit of cold weather that was nothing out of the ordinary. The models are not hinting at anything particularly significant and please bear in mind that when they do they 905% of the time usually downgrade massively. Experience plays a huge part in model watching, as an experienced member of the forum with a degree in Science and weather I am urging everyone to show some level-headidness. This winter is already shaping up to be a standard modern UK winter: ie/ mild, wet with the occasional snowfalls chiefly linked to high ground in north England and Scotland. Thank you, Barmada Casten.
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LOCATION: Ambleside, Lake District.
This has been one of the most longest intense thunderstorms I have experienced in a long time, certainly rivalling those on continental Europe.
Began with flashes of lightning from around 21:00 - 22:00 until the thunder and rain set in around 22:30.
Loud bangs and rumbles with repetitive lightning and bouts of rain/heavy rain.
Still going on now and looking at the radar will continue for a good few hours yet.
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16 minutes ago, Geordiesnow said:
Got the lightest most patchiest of dustings here, i keep looking at the radar and its de ja vu it seems with that line of showers just skirting to the south of me, nevermind thats just how the weather goes.
At least Barmada is happy though - thank goodness.
Morecambe is a truly dire place if your looking for significant snowfall, a once in a 20 -25 year event perhaps?
I would not say I am as much happy but pleasantly surprised. This is far from a significant fall, and overall it has been a poor winter, aloof better than 16/17 that's for sure!
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Just now, Summerstorm said:
Output doesn't look too bad to me 6z suggesting an easterly.
Can never really get excited about an easterly. Generally useless for our region unless they are extremely potent.
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3 minutes ago, captaincroc said:
For my sanity Thursdays low is a no-goer BUT weirder things have happened and there has been a slight shift north on the 6z...who knows?
20% chance of getting into the very south of the region (Cheshire).
10% chance of getting into the centre of region (Lancashire, Gtr Man).
1% chance of getting into the north of the region (Cumbria and above). And if it did it would fizzle out as light snow.
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2 minutes ago, Dkeane3 said:
Yes for once, really happy with it, you'll get your chance soon
Got a surprise couple of cm's overnight which was a bonus for me in all honesty as it certainly was not forecasted or expected.
Those are the ones you cherish the most.
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1 minute ago, Dkeane3 said:
Haha the reason I'm optimistic is because of the GFS's horrible performance regarding Thursdays snowfall
Thursdays snowfall is a non event for the majority in the region, the midlands/south will get an absolute pummelling.
Will be avoiding the news that day that's for sure!
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Just now, Dkeane3 said:
A few pics of the stunning local snowfall
Superb mate! Parts in around Manchester seem to have done really well for once.
Enjoy it - much deserved!
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5 minutes ago, Wardlegacy said:
Which models do you use to come to that forecast?
GFS mostly and past experiences in addition to weather trends and patterns.
Why?
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Just now, Dkeane3 said:
Yes GFS looking horrible last few runs overall but metO still hinting at something cold albeit dry for us
Yes mate, and in fairness GFS has been pretty much spot on recently.
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Surprise fall overnight, a shower which lasted albeit 30 mins has given a 2cm covering. Although its far from anything significant it is a pleasant surprise nevertheless.
Looks like I got this one wrong, but I am fairly certain that this will be all we will see in this location in terms of snowfall for the rest of the winter, with themps set to gradually rise and a return to westerly zonality heading into February.
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1 minute ago, pip22 said:
Tonight and Wednesday ^^
Apologies but ramping in its most extreme sense here...
For instance there is no way parts of coastal and lowland Lakeland will have a couple of cm's of snow!-
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Cold and dry in Cumbria tonight.
Any 'action' will be well south of us.
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Just now, Deep Snow please said:
I don't think anyone expected you to get snow from the main band, snow from the showers tonight is your interest point.
What's your elevation anyway?
Sea level. No indication of anything coming our way this evening, or indeed, in the near future.
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Cloud and dry here after a period of rain that was not worthy enough to be called sleet.
Disappointed as always but pretty chuffed I got this forecast nailed IMBY.
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24 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:
Give it time, as the temps cool off into this evening the showers coming behind should be the main event for many parts of our region. The top of the fells near you must be covered now though?
Some on the fells yes, cant see anything of significance comeing this evening.
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Sadly I am only expecting a meagre dusting from Tuesdays said 'event' and Thursdays low will definitely not reach this far, and if it does will not provide anything significant.
It is quite tragic that I haven't seen significant snowfall for 6 years now a lot of that owing to bad circumstances and being in the wrong place at the wrong time. Another poor and cruel winter for me.
I don't think I can handle another winter of watching everyone else get significant falls of snow while I get nothing, it is far to painful. Can't see myself logging in or posting much from now on so in the words of Dragons Den - "I'm out."
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North West Regional Discussion 3 June 2020 onwards
in Regional
Posted
Any snow here in the NW will fall chiefly to higher ground in the usual spots. There could be the odd sleety or wet snow shower in the larger conurbations at lower levels but nothing significant to write home about. Going forward we will be entering a period of colder weather however in the short-term the prospects of any serious winter weather looming are sadly a long way off.