Barmada_Casten
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Posts posted by Barmada_Casten
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2 hours ago, damianslaw said:
A milder morning and lunchtime, but a cold afternoon once the cold front cleared.
Expecting an air frost tonight, and tomorrow. Racking up a run of frosts in recent days. These are visible white ones unlike the unusual dry frosts second week Feb.
Absolutely, tonight’s frost may be more penetrating than frost thought. Dependent on % cloud cover and wind speeds of course.
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A soft frost overnight followed by some dull greyness with the odd spell of light rain, this cleared up by mid-afternoon with some cloud but the odd patch of sun kissing the fells. More on the mild side today.
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Another superb day here, indeed very similar to yesterday. Certainly good enough for the RAF to send a volley of fighter jets heading north east of Windermere just before dusk!
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12 hours ago, damianslaw said:
All due to clear skies, sharp drop in temp once sun goes down. Air frost this morning, today looking glorious, but another air frost tonight.
A very dry week ahead, becoming cold at times under cloud, a reminder only early March. I'll take it over the rain, think back to last Tuesday and Wednesday which were abysmal, what a contrast!
I agree entirely!
Today has been simply glorious here in south central Lakeland.
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Surprisingly cold here tonight after a mild, almost springlike afternoon. It definitely feels as though the seasons are turning but you never know - we still have a month of winter to go!
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11 minutes ago, SnowWatcher2 said:
Ha, I know, just having a bit of a moan as would be nice too see the radar like that one day when it is actual snow...can always dream
Hopefully one day
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4 hours ago, SnowWatcher2 said:
If only this was Snow
I know what you mean but it doesn’t quite work like that... if only it did!
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Not on a wind up here but none of the mainstream forecasts are going for snow or a wintry mix later this week (which they were up until early hours of the morning) - indeed now they are going for more mild and rain with any wintry weather chiefly located to the hills.
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5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:
Not really - good chance the Azores high will be phased out over time with this pattern, even if initially it is somewhat of a limiting factor as @Mucka pointed out.
As @Scott Ingham pointed out, the model bias favours the GFS in the Greenland amplification department, so I'm fairly confident that the ECM at half 6 will make a move towards increase easterly vectors around D4-7. In theory this will increase efficiency of the retrogression, amplification.
there was a really good list earlier in the thread which gave % chances of certain scenarios coming off. I go with the one which said this upcoming cold spell will be similar to the last one with some enormous satisfaction and a lot of disappointment. There is something afoot but I don’t feel it will be nationwide or significant.
However I do enjoy your posts they are very informative and I certainly hope you are right!P.S: Has anyone been to sleep yet?!
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5 minutes ago, Nick L said:
We would much rather people use the ignore facility than negatively respond to posts they don't like, for sure.
But I will add, we have absolutely no plans to put an age limit on this or any threads on this site. I joined this site when I was 15, posting on here helped nurture my interest in meteorology. That then lead to a degree in meteorology, and now I'm employed as a meteorologist and have been for the last 6 years. There will be numerous other young people on this forum who could potentially follow that path, and posting on here will continue to nurture that interest.
So, yes, please use the ignore facility. But we have a wealth of knowledge and posts from all ages on this forum. Anyway, let's get back to discussing model output and put this evening's drama behind us, and thank you to all who reported posts - that's the way to deal with issues.
Apologies to anyone offended by my earlier post! It was perhaps badly worded and did not mean to offend anyone!!! This forum would be nothing without everyone and as I said earlier now more than ever we need to stick together.
As for the upcoming cold spell..... well.....
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Looks like I have opened Pandora’s box. Apologies to anyone offended genuinely was not meant to. Now more than ever we need to stick together! B.C.
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58 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:
I think if your going to be neutral and give a balanced view it's clear to see that we are going to be in somewhat middle ground, between colder air to the North east and milder air from the west/ southwest. Unfortunately it looks like we are going to be just on the wrong side, with Denmark looking prime position.
I see a lot of hopecasting going on, there's people who have predicted these 'holy grail' winter setups are just around the corner since late December and just keep cherry picking the best charts/ data to back themselves up ignoring all the negative signs. You just know there going to keep bashing that battered drum until there's nothing left of the bloody thing, we're in May or by the law of averages they get lucky a month later .
You can see who the experienced long serving members on here are because it only takes a fleeting look at gfs, ecm and ukmo to know when things aren't that great for us coldies because we've seen that many charts/setups and letdowns you pretty much can give a good analysis from just the quick feeling you get from those 3 models.
Its clear to see that from the big 3 models iv mentioned any blocking looks transient for the next 10 days or so, we will have cold and mild shots with maybe some transient snowfall probably on high ground. There is no suggestion of a meaningful Greenland high thats going to set up a corner shop for any meaningful length of time and the Atlantic just has a little too much bite at this time.
After that though my opinion is we should start seeing more blocking into February as the SSW comes into play and the Atlantic starts losing its bite. But that is still no guarantee any deep cold will be channelled our way. Patience is required here im afraid.
This is one of the best posts I have ever read on this forum! .... I love
What you said about the experienced posters, as one myself I am feeling the pain every time I come to this thread.
Please can I copy the post and put it in the NW regional thread?
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In summary for me.... overall pretty dissapointing and nowhere near as good as it could and should have been. Two falls have not registered over a cm, the second the most slight of dustings. Still preferable to mild rainy zonality I guess but a very tame effort. As I said earlier short-term prospects in the reliable timeframe are not particularly enthralling.
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2 hours ago, Backtrack said:
The models are looking encouraging though, but for our part of the world encouraging for cold. Not for snow. But with all that moisture in the flow, surely we’d eventually hit an event at the right time.
Whilst the models do look encouraging, it is in a timeframe way too far in the future to be taken seriously so take them with a HUGE pinch of salt. In the long distance timeframe they very rarely come into fruition. As far as the short-term is concerned things are set to get slightly milder but snow chances in this region away from high ground are minimal. B.C.
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48 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:
For those that have missed the snow I apologies but here in East Cumbria this cold spell just keeps on giving.
After the 24 hour snowfall yesterday and a maximum of just 0.3c today, tonight we are looking at the lowest minimum temperature since December 2010, at my own station north of Penrith the temperature is currently -8.9c so a minimum below -10c is almost a certainty while -12c is possible.
With big upgrades in the models next week this is easily the best January since 2010 (January 2013 was rubbish here).
Why can't winter weather always be like this?
Andy
What depths have you got in Penrith?
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14 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
The bickering stops now.
Thanks.
Thankyou
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Currently settled to around -2.8 here, certainly cold and very crisp. Sporadic patchy dustings of snow in parts. Interestingly the snow line is about the lowest I have ever seen it in these parts which I have found fascinating. Congrats to all those who got something these last few days - as a region we deserve it!
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1 hour ago, pip22 said:
Looks like thats it for this cold spell. The cold spell is arn't that bad just had a few days with snowfalling, mostly light. I rate this 6/10.
I suppose this is a good start to the new year!!
Not only is that it for the cold spell but that is probably for the rest of the winter by the looks of things. I have had two measly dusting which is about standard for these parts.
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REPORTS OF SNOWFALL IN CUMBRIA ARW NOT WIDESPREAD. HERE IN MY LOCATION IN SOUTH LAKELAND WE HAVE LITERALLY NOTHING.
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Absolutely mortified, dumbfounded and perplexed as to the fact that it is raining here in my location. The radar said snow, the forecast said snow and even the nowcast says snow. I am genuinely starting to wonder if it is just me - another in the many long list of ‘missed out events.’ I am stating to take it personally... especially after least years fiasco and the one the year before that. Quite sickening that the last time I saw more than 2cm of snowfall in a location I lived was over a decade ago. Lost for words.
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16 minutes ago, I Cumbria Marra I said:
Its SNOWING!!! Light but definately snow, about bloody time man!
Happy for you more than anyone mate!!! With the exception of myself you have certainly suffered over the years (with the exception of March 2013 ) although I have no mercy as you do live in the coast!! But in all seriousness mate congrats! - you deserve it! Now get out there and enjoy it!! B.C.
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Just now, I Cumbria Marra I said:
Not quite reaching here!
Honestly Marra take that radar with a HUGE pinch of salt (or grit ). I was under a dark red area of heavy ppn and nothing was falling, been a few reports of that across the region.
.... Now then where’s that grit? Between my teeth???!!!
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4 minutes ago, SP1986 said:
There has been some rain showers recently, currently drizzle. Even the Flintshire hills have rain. Not quite cold enough yet.. temp 2C dewpoint 1C .. this might decrease later bringing a possibility for snow.
Seems to be a real ‘knife-edge’ event for many in the area. Fingers crossed for all!
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Just now, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:
Unfortunately for me, that plough dome
is open today
I feel your pain mate!
North West Regional Discussion Feb 2021 onwards
in Northwest Weather Discussion
Posted
A cloudy, cool day today, albeit not too thick a cloud cover as it had been relively bright. Will be cold again tonight, although not as cold as previous nights - a soft first is possible in some exposed areas.
It feed so sad to see the quiet in the forum after how busy it was this winter.