Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?

TonyH

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    8,814

  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    1

 Content Type 

Blog Entries posted by TonyH

  1. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [b]Rather cold with rain, and chiefly hill snow at times; milder, especially for SW Wales, from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A chilly, rather than cold week gone, with maximum temperatures mostly only a little below the February average of 8c here in Ceredigion, and only the slightest of frosts on a few of the nights, with too much peristent cloud cover acting as a warming blanket. It has though been quite a cold week for the Midlands, even with a little snow at times, but not amounting to much. Another 'iffy' if eventually slightly milder week ahead, after a cold start with some snow in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Low pressure has formed over Wales today, and is pulling colder air in from the east as it gradually sinks south. Dull, damp and chilly for the rest of Sunday with further rain and drizzle, quite heavy at times. As the colder air moves over later this evening, the rain turns to sleet and snow over much of the Midlands, East and North Wales. With temperatures largely just above freezing tonight, any snow will be wet and will most likely struggle to settle at low levels, but high ground above about 200m could see appreciable accumulations by morning. Place such as the Brecon Beacons and the Cotswolds seeing several inches by dawn, while for most of South and West Wales there is not much chance of snow even falling tonight, at least below about 200m. Monday is a cold, damp day, with mainly light rain or sleet on and off, and again some snow over high ground. Maxima only around 3 or 4c, but milder over Pembrokeshire, 6c here. A cold NE wind too. [/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=160344:ecmt850.024 snow threat tonight esp Midlands.png][attachment=160343:PPVE89 Mon L S cold damp sleet.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Still a little rain, sleet or snow in places through Monday night, but with clear intervals developing later. A weak ridge for Tuesday so a mostly dry, perhaps even bright day, after a frosty start in places, and cold again, maxima just 3 or 4c. A widespread frost likely to develop during Tuesday night, and quite a hard frost should skies clear completely. An Atlantic frontal system then moves into the chilly air sat over the UK through Wednesday. Rain arrives for West Wales during Wednesday morning, readily turning to snow above about 300m, and then spreads east to the Midlands in the afternoon, only rain or sleet likely for the Midlands. Rather cold on Wednesday highs of just 4c for the Midlands, but eventually up to 8c for SW Wales where a mild sector gets over later in the day. Low pressure is close to Scotland on Thursday, sunny intervals and only a few showers, and a milder day, highs between 6 and 8c. [/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=160345:PPVJ89 Tue m dry cold week R.png][attachment=160346:PPVL89 tr rain hill snow Wed pm.png][attachment=160347:ecmt850.096 tr Wed rain hill snow.png][attachment=160349:metslp.96 rain hill snow Wed pm.png][attachment=160351:h850t850eu WS Wed night.png][/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    Throughout this week the Scandinavian high is ever present, although not affecting us enough to ensure a true cold snap. It is still there by next weekend, meaning that any Atlantic fronts get no further than the North Sea really, but do at least introduce milder air at times. Still this stand off by the end of the week, and signs that the Scandinavian high may intensify next weekend. So, for Friday and the weekend, weak troughs bring probably only small amounts of rain at times, with ridging from the NE attempting to dry things out, but perhaps not quite succeeding. Always colder to the NE and milder to the SW on a UK wide scale next weekend, the Midlands then generally on the rather chilly side, but conversely it may turn quite mild into SW Wales at some stage this weekend, 10c a possibilty here but with damp, drizzly conditions. Probably too much cloud for much in the way of frost over next weekend.[/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]
    [attachment=160352:ecmt850.168 stand off weekend H NE week troughs UK.png][attachment=160354:h850t850eu stand off weekend.png][/size][/font]
  2. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Continuing mostly dry but less cold, night frosts. Rather cloudy.[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The change to much colder conditions took place on schedule last Wednesday. A remarkable temperature range on Tuesday here, from -6c minimum up to +11c (17c) thanks to the West Wales foehn effect, in which the easterly breeze desecending the nearby Cambrian hills dried out and warmed considerably, this effect shown by the very low humidity of 39% during the afternoon. A cloudy cold spell this for the Midlands has prevented really cold nights, nothing below -1c since Wednesday at Coventry. It has been very dry of late, 10 successive dry days here in Lampeter is the longest dry spell since June 2010 (which had 14 days), and not before time! No measurable rain (or snow) for Warwickshire either, where Bablake School, Coventry has now recorded 10 consecutive dry days (below 0.2mm), but here only the longest spell since just before the Midlands 'drought' ended last April. The Midlands had a little light snow yesterday, but barely enough for a covering for the majority. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly dry week ahead with high pressure over or close to the UK throughout, and although still on the cold side, less cold than have been the past 5 days. The Scandinavian high that has provided this cold spell gradually transfers south-west to be centred over northern UK early this week, and so the really cold air supply from Russia is cut off as we come more under the circulation of the high itself. Clear intervals developing tonight with another frost, coldest for West Wales where it gets down to -4c in parts. Still a cold NE wind for Monday and with weak fronts being carried west across England and Wales, there will be a little drizzle or sleet in places, mostly for the Midlands but not amounting to much. A cloudy day with highs of just 4 or 5c. Similar for Tuesday, so after a slight frost, a mostly cloudy day with spits of drizzle or sleet in the air, more especially for the Midlands. Sunny intervals for parts of West Wales during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162118:PPVG89 Int H N m dry cold Mon.png][attachment=162119:ecmt850.048 cold NE flow Mon.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]By Wednesday or Thursday the high is centred over or just west of Ireland, and so winds are very light and the air less cold. Variable cloud through Wednesday and Thursday, some of us seeing sunny intervals while others remain largely overcast, difficult to say just where gets any sun though. Temperatures a little milder, reaching 6 to 8c, although any clear intervals will lead to frost and some fog patches readily forming overnight. In fact where fog does form on Wednesday or Thursday it could well be slow to clear during the daytime with so little wind, and where the fog and murk lasts all morning highs of just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162120:PPVK89 Int H Scot less cold dry frosts.png][attachment=162123:h850t850eu H north UK dry less cold Wed.png][attachment=162121:ecmt850.096 H Ire Thu dry less cold fog.png][attachment=162122:metslp.96 H Ire Thu dry brighter.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure still close by to the north-west on Friday, a suggestion that milder Atlantic air tracks about the high, so the mildest day of the week on Friday perhaps, with maxima around the early March average of 8 or 9c. A dry day with sunny intervals, after overnight frost and fog clears. There were strong indications for an Arctic cold blast bringing wintry showers over next weekend through the recent days model output, however this has now been much watered down due to high pressure remaining close to the UK, and with the main cold northerly thrust being pushed into the Continent instead. In fact the latest model runs suggest Saturday will be a pleasant day with plenty of sunshine and average temperatures of 8 to 10c. So at the moment it looks as though the UK will miss out on the next potential cold snap? However, it is not at all unusual for sharp frosts and snow showers to fall at any stage during March even though technically we are into Spring![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162124:ecmt850.144 Sat R dry bright frosts.png][/size][/font][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=162125:ecmt850.168 dry colder Sun sharp frosts.png][/size][/font]
  3. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Unseasonably cold with hard frosts and some wintry showers; milder, unsettled Easter weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A rather cold week gone, especially for the Midlands, although Monday to Wednesday were not too bad here in West Wales, it even felt quite pleasant in the sunny intervals, however there was still sleet or snow showers in places too. Then came the rain and snow! Over two inches of rain fell here in 24 hours during Thursday/ Friday, and with snow for the Midlands on Saturday and Sunday, 4 - 6 inches generally falling over Warwickshire. Parts of NE Wales and the Peak District have seen almost TWO FEET of snow falling since Friday night, without taking into account the drifting! It has turned very cold this weekend for all of us, Saturday's maximum of +0.2c made it the coldest March day in Coventry since the infamous March 1947. The unseasonable weather continues for most if not all of the coming week, the final week of what is set to become the coldest March since 1962 for many areas. A White Easter is just as likely (unlikely!) as a White Christmas, so will the cold last long enough for snow to fall over the Easter Weekend?[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The 'Battle Royale' discussed in last week's guide that has given the amazing Spring snowfalls, has decisively been won by the cold this weekend as the blocking high to our north reasserts and the mild Atlantic air is deflected to Spain. The belt of high stretching from Greenland to Scandinavia holds firm through to mid week, with very cold easterly winds blowing across the UK. This air has originated from Arctic northern Russia and has travelled over the Continent chilled by an unseasonably cold and snowy March. Mostly cloudy and very cold again for the rest of Sunday, light snow over the Midlands slowly dying out, with perhaps a few flakes in the air for West Wales this afternoon too. 'Highs' of 0 to +2c, indeed parts of the Midlands scraping an 'Ice Day' which is almost unprecedented at this time of year! Monday to Wednesday very, very cold for the end of March, and with a bitter east wind we will be getting highs of just 1 to 4c, whereas the late March average is 11c. Some of the Midlands seeing further Ice Days even? Hard penetrating frosts by night, minima dependant on the extent to which skies clear and winds drop, but -3c to -5c would be general lows for Monday to Wednesday nights, severe enough frosts given the overnight breeze, but the potential is there for -8c in places over snow fields. A mainly dry spell this with sunny intervals but also some snow flurries, these few and far between and not expected to give much in the way of accumulation through Monday and Tuesday. Some places, especially Pembrokeshire, will miss these altogether. The fresh east wind turns more to the NE on Wednesday, when some areas will see more significant snow showers putting down a covering.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=166617:ecmt850.024 bitter Sunday March 24th 2013.png][attachment=166618:PPVE89 Historical cold chart Mon.png][attachment=166619:PPVJ89 Ex cold snow flurries possible.png][attachment=166620:ecmt850.072 ex cold Tue Ice day places snow flurries.png][attachment=166621:PPVL89 v cold snow showers WEd.png][attachment=166624:prectypeuktopo snow showers Wed.png][attachment=166622:ukmintemp severe frost THu.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]On Thursday the NE flow slackens with lighter winds, so after another hard frost a better chance of sunny spells and somewhat less cold temperatures, although maxima of 5 to 7c are still well below the late March average. Still the chance of a few wintry showers getting into the Midlands off the North Sea on Thursday, but a dry and fairly sunny day for West Wales is likely. Yet another frosty night to follow. Low pressure is attempting to push rain fronts into SW UK on Friday, a rather similar situation to what happened the week gone. The usual varied possibilities being played out in the models for the end of the week, with low pressure approaching from the west; one recent scenario of further battleground snowfalls over Good Friday and the Easter weekend now seemingly morphing into a milder outlook after transient snow for some on Friday. The model output concensus seems to be for a much milder weekend with showers or longer spells of rain, with the latest GFS showing maxima of 12 to 14c, more where the mercury should be by early April! There does however still remain a possibilty that the cold block puts up an end of the week fight back which could bring more widespread and heavy snow for Friday and Saturday, but this is the less likely option. Good Friday therefore looks like our only chance to realise a 'White Easter' (sleet or snow falling from the sky!)[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=166623:metslp.120 cold wintry showers Thu.png][attachment=166625:Recm1442 L blocked Sat snow potential SW.gif][attachment=166626:h850t850eu milder wet GF.png][attachment=166627:ukmaxtemp mild unsettled Sat.png][attachment=166628:Recm1922 milder wet Easter Monday.gif][attachment=166629:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  4. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Rain at times, breezy, becoming dry late in the week; temperatures around average[/b]

    Last week witnessed the passing of the Winter that refused to let go! Near average temperatures for the most part, although the Midlands only warmed slowly. We all have seen some rain of late, although it took until Thursday for measurable rain in my gauge to end the 18 day 'frosty drought' which had parched and dessicated the countryside locally.

    A very wet night and Sunday morning for West Wales with over an inch of rain in my rain gauge. In contrast only a little rain for the Midlands today where it is proving to be the warmest day so far this year, into the mid 60's Fahrenheit here, in the warm sector air ahead of the front that is giving Wales all the rain. This rain has now cleared through West Wales to give sunny intervals and the odd shower, while the Midlands gets some showery rain at times the rest of this afternoon, lowering the temperatures.

    On Monday a fairly mild SW wind brings plenty of cloud but also sunny intervals. Mainly dry apart from the odd light shower scattered about, highs 13 to 16c. By evening a low pressure is passing close to Ireland and brings rain to Wales with a freshening wind once more. Overnight this mostly light rain spreads to the Midlands as well, quite a mild night lows of 6 or 7c. Tuesday starts with light rain in places, but this soon clears to sunny spells and a few passing showers, a brisk SW breeze and maxima of 12 to 15c. A slight hint of higher pressure kills off any showers to leave clear spells until further cloud spreads from the SW before dawn. The next in the succession of lows arrives over Ireland later on Wednesday, bringing more wet weather, and it could be a washout day for West Wales, as we will be within a rain producing warm sector similar to today's, so the potential for another inch of rain here. The Midlands also seeing some rain at times through Wednesday. Quite a windy day too for Wednesday, cool in the rain for Wales highs just 11c, but up to 14c for the Midlands which is around to the mid April mean.

    By Thursday the low is over Scandinavia with a cooler showery NW airstream, noticeably cooler for the Midlands with highs 11 or 12c. The showers die out Thursday night with a touch of ground frost in places. For Friday high pressure is close to our SW, so a fine if not especially warm day with decent sunshine, highs of 12 to 14c. High pressure over England on Saturday so a largely sunny day after a slight frost at dawn. Temperatures higher on Saturday reaching a respectable 13 to 17c. Unfortunately it does not look as though our end of week high will hang around, because through Sunday it starts to turn more unsettled again, with westerly winds arriving from a deep low close to Iceland, this looking set to bring rain bands and wind into the week that follows.
  5. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cool and unsettled, showers or longer spells of rain; drier brighter intervals between, some ground frosts.[/b]

    From Summer to Autumn it felt like last week, 23c here on Tuesday but then by Thursday it was max 11.8c. Strong winds with gales in places as well as rain on Thursday, it felt like a Winter's day in Carmarthenshire! Hail and thunder in places in the showers on Saturday. The coming week will be disappointing again for those hoping for a warm and dry spell, as the UK is sat under a cool lobe of upper atmospheric air which is most conducive to the formation of heavy showers and longer spells of rain. Some areas will see quite large totals of rain this week, a couple of inches falling in some areas.

    Sunday is a cloudy, damp day, all of us eventually getting light rain and drizzle on and off, cool too no higher than 12 or 13c. With a deep low spinning towards northern Scotland, cool west to NW winds affect us on Monday, a day of sunny intervals and showers, some of these heavy with hail and thunder in places. Incidentally, the hills of Scotland seeing snow showers on Monday, so Winter goes on up there! Highs only between 10 and 13c, poor for the middle of May when we should be seeing 15 or 16c. Doubtful that anywhere will miss the showers completely on Monday as they turn more widespread through the afternoon. A secondary wave low looks set to cross southern Britain on Tuesday bringing more general wet weather, some places having 6 hours or so of heavy rain at some stage during the day, more especially over Mid and South Wales and the Midlands this. Outside of the main rain zone there will be showers scattered about too, but with a little sunshine between. A very cool and rather windy day, highs below 10c if it remains wet, and only 12c where it brightens in the afternoon. A chilly night follows the rain or showers with a ground frost for many, lows between 1 and 4c inland, but milder and frost free for coasts.

    By Wednesday a complex of low pressure covers the whole of the UK, at least winds will be lighter, however the strong morning sunshine will only serve to provide energy for large Cumulonimbus clouds to develop by midday. Some very heavy and slow moving downpours scattered about on Wednesday afternoon then, hail and thunderstorms for some of us, although as always in showery set ups some places may escape completely with a dry even bright day, although hard to judge where these 'lucky' spots will be. At least feeling warmer (or at least less cool) in any sunny spells and the more gentle winds, maxima generally 12 to 14c. Most of the showers die out to clearing skies on Wednesday night, and the threat once more of a widespread ground frost, although I do not think that yesterday's GFS run is correct with it's prediction of -3c for the Welsh Marches, which would be a very damaging late season frost if it came true. Our low pressure is still close to the south through Thursday although somewhat filled up, so a better day in prospect, only light winds, fewer showers and decent sunny spells. Where showers do occur they will be heavy with thunder possible again. Warmer on Thursday highs ranging from 14 to 17c, close to average. Clearing skies with local ground frost for Thursday night, although perhaps more cloudy for the Midlands.

    On Friday a new low forms over the Continent pumping up heat to Eastern Europe, but the UK remains on the cool side of this system. Some heavy and thundery rain associated with this low possibly affecting the Midlands for a time on Friday, but more probable is a continuation of the showery theme to our weather. Pembrokeshire could be favoured to miss the worst of the showers on Friday. Maxima on Friday then a near normal 14 to 17c. Hints of a ridge for next Saturday on last night's GFS run appear dashed, with a rather cool and low pressure dominated picture continuing throughout next weekend. The only uncertainty is which low pressure and from where! Needless to say further rain or showers at times next weekend, the lucky spots missing the worst of it and at least in any sunny spells it will feel warm even though maximum mercury readings in the teens belie this!
  6. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rather cool; unsettled with rain or showers, drier to end the week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As the cold Spring draws to a close this week we look forward to Summer... In fact it will end up the coldest Spring since at least 1962 in the Central England Temperature series that goes back to 1659![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw notably cool conditions for late May with snow returning to northern hills, while the rest of us saw hail showers and strong cold winds on Thursday and Friday. Coventry and Warwickshire managed only 9c maximum on Friday- the coldest late May day since 1948, while on both Friday and Saturday nights lows of -2c for parts of Ceredigion, the lowest temperatures recorded this far into the year, and with an air frost even on the Carmarthenshire coast! The cold records keep tumbling this Spring, although at least maximum temperatures have recovered to around average levels this weekend thanks to a ridge of high pressure and plenty of strong sunshine. Last week was dry with the showers not adding up to much in the rain gauges. Unfortunately the generally cool theme sees out May with rain or showers at times too this coming week.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A lovely sunny and warm feeling afternoon on Sunday, parts of the Midlands close to 20c, while cooler for West Wales coasts at 14c. Another largely clear and cold night, West Wales should just avoid a air frost as cloud and wind associated with a front over Ireland spreads over by dawn, but a widespread grass frost lows generally 2 to 4c. Turning unsettled from the west during Bank Holiday Monday although the rain should hold off until evening for the Midlands as the front stalls over West Wales in the afternoon which will be cool, wet and quite windy here. Highs just 12c over wet West Wales but 17c for the East Midlands where it stays brighter longer. The rain clears Wales overnight Monday whilst edging into the Midlands, most of it light though here. Lows of 5 to 7c. The occluded front bringing the rain develops it's own low on Tuesday somewhere over southern England so that means a very unsettled day with showers or longer spells of rain, heavy and perhaps thundery at times. There should be a few sunny intervals but with all the cloud and showery rain, a cool day in prospect, maxima just 13 to 15c. The MIdlands in particular could end up with a lot of rain through to Tuesday night.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]This low is still over England or at least very close by on Wednesday which has a cool NE or north wind developing along with some more showery rain for many places, highs betwen 13 and 15c, although if it brightens a touch warmer for the East Midlands 17c possible here. Potentially rather wet in places then again on Wednesday. The models have been teasing with hints of a ridge of high pressure drying things out later in the week, however this will be a struggle with weather fronts travelling about the high crossing at least northern UK. A ridge of sorts on Thursday, so a drier, brighter day in store, although a few showers will affect some areas, especially the Midlands in the afternoon, but not everywhere, and we should all see decent sunny spells. Highs on Thursday 14 to 16c for West Wales where the cool NW breeze is most evident, to 18 or 19c for the Midlands. Some of us then getting a mostly dry, better day on Thursday. Clearing skies and any showers dying out during Thursday night, a touch of ground frost in places as air temperatures fall to 3 to 6c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]As usual things more difficult to ascertain by the end of the week, and we are taking a much more probabilistic view. A nose of warm sector air may be over us on Friday and potentially a warm day with a few showers and light westerly winds, cloudier for West Wales and sunnier for the Midlands in such a set up, indeed sea fog could plague western beaches on Friday. Disappointingly cool for West Wales with the cloud cover just 14c or so, while the Midlands could hit 20c - it must be stressed though that Friday's scenario may not play out in exactly this way, and it could be that the ridge exerts more strongly giving more of us a warm and sunny day, or conversely that Atlantic fronts are more prolific bringing cloud, some rain and lower temperatures than are anticipated for Friday. The favoured option for next weekend is that high pressure will be fairly close to our west with a rather cool NE breeze over the UK. Hopefully then a mostly dry if not especially warm weekend, and if anywhere catches a shower most likely the Midlands. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=172374:PPVG89 v cool wet WW Mon.png][attachment=172375:PPVJ89 potentially wet Tue.png][attachment=172376:ecmt850.072 Sec L Tue showers lsr.png][attachment=172377:PPVO89 R to W Thu few showers.png][attachment=172378:ecmt850.120 R attempt Thu few showers.png][attachment=172379:h850t850eu R attempt drier warmer Thu.png][attachment=172380:h850t850eu WS few showers Fri.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172381:ecmt850.120 warmest day Fri.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][attachment=172383:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=172385:viewimage.png][attachment=172382:ecmt850.168 weekend HW LE m dry coolish.png][/size][/font]
  7. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Rain early in the week, becoming much drier with average to cool temperatures and some night frosts[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Gales affected West Wales last Saturday, gusts of over 80mph recorded at Mumbles near Swansea and 51mph here at a much more sheltered inland Llanwnnen -there were trees brought down, some structural damage and power outages, as well as huge waves! An unsettled week gone with rain at times but also some drier intervals. Most places have picked up between 25 and 50mm rain in the past 7 day, although parts of West Wales had more than this, but not enough to create flooding issues as far as I am aware. Temperatures have been around or a little below average generally and there have been some night frosts, mainly for West Wales and with 5 of the past 7 nights having grass frost at this frost prone location, with an air frost last night down to -1.4c. Very cool across the Midlands on Friday, the 'high' at Coventry just 7.3c and the coldest max of the Season to date [url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]https://twitter.com/bablakewx[/url][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some showery rain over the Midlands this morning clearing by mid afternoon, while for West Wales Saturday afternoon sees sunny intervals and some showers in places. Highs around 9 or 10c on Saturday. There will be a longer spell of rain this evening for mid and south Wales but this should miss most of the Midlands. Then clearing skies lead to a widespread ground frost overnight, and as with last night a few spots creeping below zero. A fine frosty start to Sunday and for the Midlands there will be plenty of sunshine all day. For West Wales it clouds over through the afternoon with rain into Pembrokeshire by sunset. Quite a cool day though no higher than 9 or 10c during the daytime. A rather wet and windy evening and night across Wales - the rain reaching the Midands in the early hours. A warm sector eventually arrives during Sunday night and so temperatures rise after midnight to 10 to 13c by dawn, mildest over SW Wales. A cloudy Monday morning with further rain and drizzle at times, this clears West Wales around lunchtime but may linger over the Midlands to the end of the afternoon. MIld and breezy on Monday, maxima in the 12 to 14c range. Another pulse of rain may affect Wales and the Midlands on Monday night but this is not certain. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]For Tuesday high pressure is ridging in from the SW so a mainly dry and bright day is expected with sunny spells but we are in cooler, fresher air once more so maxima no better than 11c for most. Clearing skies on Tuesday night with a widespread ground frost and even a touch of air frost in a few spots where it gets down to -1c. A belt of high pressure is over southern most England on Wednesday with low pressure passing north of Scotland. Generally speaking another dry day with sunny intervals and a touch milder perhaps highs at around 11c but not feeling it with a freshening westerly wind. Fronts associated with the low to the north affect West Wales later in the day with rain in places here by evening but staying dry for most of the Midlands. There could be a little rain overnight for the Midlands too, but clear spells and some blustery showers for West Wales.Thursday and we lie between high pressure to the SW and low over Scandinavia, a mostly dry, bright and quite cool day with a brisk NW breeze, temperatures only managing 9 or 10c. There could well be a widespread grass frost at least on Thursday night as the wind drops off. Another marked ridge of high pressure for Friday which should be dry with sunny spells and maxima 9 to 11c after the early frost and perhaps fog patches. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]No clear signals for next weekend, but probably not so mild and not so wet! [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=191992:PPVG89 (1) fine m dry Sun.png][attachment=191993:PPVJ89 damp mild Mon.png][attachment=191994:PPVO89 rain later WW Wed.png][attachment=191995:h850t850eu dry most of Wed.png][attachment=191996:PPVL89 dry Tue.png][attachment=191997:ecmt850.144 Th HSW LNE m dry r cool.png][attachment=191998:ecmt850.168 dry prospects R Fri.png][attachment=191999:ecmt850.192 cool some rain next weekend.png][attachment=192000:h850t850eu R dry bright Tue.png][attachment=191999:ecmt850.192 cool some rain next weekend.png][attachment=192000:h850t850eu R dry bright Tue.png][attachment=192001:prcpWarwickshire fairly dry week.png][attachment=192003:mgram_Birmingham m dry from Tue.png][/size][/font]
  8. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly dry and warm with sunny spells, very warm even by Thursday/ Friday; unsettled and cooler weekend[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Plenty of rather warm, dry and bright weather last week, although it turned more unsettled during Thursday with the first real rain for a fortnight or so for many places. 23.4c Llanwnnen on Wednesday made it the warmest day so far this year. Other high readings include 24.7c Hereford, 24.1c Church Lawford, 23.7c Little Rissington, 24.4c Mumbles and 23.5c Pembrey Sands all on Monday, these although warm are unremarkable readings for Summer. Heavy showers for most on Friday and thunderstorms for some, these gave over an inch of rain to parts of the Midlands, the highest total being 28.2mm at Market Bosworth, Leicestershire, with Long Lawford, Warwickshire having 35.4mm in the 36 hours to Saturday morning. This enough to turn what was looking like quite a dry June into a wet one, West Wales has still managed a reasonably dry month however. Some more localised downpours in places on Saturday, Swyddffynnon, Ceredigion caught 28.4mm while places just a few miles away saw very little rain. Saturday was a cool day for the Midlands, Coleshill and Coventry only managed 16c due to persistent cloud.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Some dry and warm weather for much of the coming week again, very warm even later in the week with the Summer's first 80f possible by Friday for the Midlands! Signals of a more unsetttled and cooler weekend however. Sunday afternoon is largely dry with sunny spells, just a scattering of showers over the Midlands, temperatures reaching a pleasant 19 to 21c. Clear periods and a cool night, some rural spots down to 5c or so, but nearer 10c for coasts and cities. Although a low system is passing to our SW during Monday the rain should avoid us only really making it into Cornwall and Devon. Another mostly dry and bright day with sunny spells, again a few showers developing but most places remain essentially dry. Highs 19 to 22c about average for the last day of June. Slack pressure on Tuesday and again largely dry with spells of warm sunshine and light winds, the odd sharp shower for a few spots. Highs on Tuesday 20 to 23c. Dry with decent sunny spells again for Wednesday with a ridge over southern UK and probably a touch warmer, highs 22 to 25c quite likely, so a warm day. As with previous nights it cools pleasantly down to minima of 8 to 12c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A deep low is situated near Iceland on Thursday but with high pressure still close to our SW it looks largely dry and warm again with sunny periods. This could be the warmest day of the week, indeed the year so far, highs for most in the 23 to 26c range, cooler for western coasts. The dry and warm, even very warm weather may hold on for Friday too, GFS showing 28c maxima over the Midlands but it may not end up quite so hot and with a westerly drift of air Cardigan Bay pleasantly cooler. Mostly dry but the warmth setting off a scattering of heavy showers or thunderstorms, particularly for the Midlands. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A trough looks set to spoil next weekend somewhat although to what extent the weather deteriorates is questionnable. However a fall in pressure is likely by Saturday and weather fronts look set to bring spells of rain to be followed by showers for Sunday when it will be noticeably cooler. Not all models show an especially poor weekend though and some recent GFS model runs keep it quite warm and with not so much in the way of rain.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217594:PPVG89 m dry ss.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217595:PPVJ89 m dry RW Tu.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217596:ecmt850.072 m dry RW TU WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217597:h850t850eu warm ss WE.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217598:PPVO89 dry warm TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217599:h850t850eu warm dry TH.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217600:ecmt850.144 TH FR m dry v warm potential.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217601:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217602:h850t850eu cooling weekend but little rain.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217603:prcpWarwickshire m dry week until weekend.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217604:t850Warwickshire warm week.png][/font][/color][color=rgb(34,34,34)][font='Helvetica Neue'][attachment=217605:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color][/font][/color]
  9. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Often dry but chilly with frost and fog up to Thursday; thereafter rain at times and milder[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The Lampeter area had an unexpected air frost last Monday night, the low of -0.7c here at Llanwnnen colder than any official UK weather station, closest values in our regions being Sennybridge and Shawbury minima 2.8c. Tuesday a lovely sunny day across much of West Wales (WW) with Wednesday a decent day too. Much of the week had temperatures in the average to mild bracket, with 13c reached over parts of WW Thursday. Much of the week was rather dry, particularly the Midlands, but rain arrived for Friday and during daylight it was rather cool over the Midlands at just 8c or so max. Saturday in contrast a very mild day widely reaching 13 to 15c - top spot Hereford at 16.1c, nothing though compared with the 24.8c reached at Socoa beneath the Pyrénées in France yesterday![/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]The coming week[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A difficult week to call - although there will be rain in places mid week, the outlook through to Thursday is mostly dry with sunny intervals (particularly for WW) and frosty and in places foggy nights as temperatures drop to where they should be at the end of November! It then probably turns unsettled with more widespread rain at times for Friday and into next weekend, but it must be stressed that uncertainty reigns by the end of the week! Lingering rain over the East Midlands this Sunday afternoon gradually edges away, while for Wales and the West Midlands its a dry afternoon with the sun breaking through. A cooler day highs at 8's and 9's c with light winds. Clearing skies and calm this evening sees frost setting in along with the formation of fog patches. It could well be the coldest night of the Season thus far (well we have n't had any cold as yet!) down below zero widely, coldest spots of inland Wales and the Marches at -2 or -3c. High pressure over southern Britain on Monday and typically for November this will mean thick fog in places which slowly thins and clears to give sunny spells for the afternoon. Where mist and fog persists longest a chilly day at just 5 or 6c max, but where it brightens up near average at 8 or 9c. Clear and cold again for Monday night again with fog in places, frosty lows generally -1 or -2c.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]A ridge hangs on giving another dry day on Tuesday, some sunny intervals - once any fog and low cloud clears that is, rather cold though maxima just 5 to 7c, milder around coasts. However a shallow low over France is bringing a front up from the south and we could see rain breaking out in places by evening. A cloudy night follows with rain at times, not everywhere wet though, NW Wales may well escape, and no frost concerns for Tuesday night. The weakening weather front keeps it cloudy with some rain in places during Wednesday for the Midlands, while WW has a dry, bright day with sunny intervals. Maxima Wednesday 7 to 9c, even the odd 10c for parts of coastal WW where it could be quite a nice day! Light winds and clearing skies sees more fog developing on Wednesday night with frost in places, lows between 0 and 3c generally.[/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]Thursday and we are between weather systems but with Atlantic fronts crossing Ireland towards us. Mostly dry with sunny intervals after any early fog, highs a chilly 7c or so for the Midlands but a milder day for WW as southerly winds increase, 10 to 12c here by evening. Uncertainties by this stage around frontal progress/ nature, but cloud and some rain for WW perhaps during Thursday afternoon becoming more widespread and heavier during the evening seems the likely outcome. It is doubtful the rain will extend far into the Midlands until Friday however as the fronts stall over the west during Friday night, so potentially a wet one for WW. [/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica]The models are quite difficult to interpret by the end of the week (more than unsual!) and so things may not pan out exactly as anticipated here: a 'disrupting' (splitting/ stalling) trough is somewhere over southern UK during Friday so there will be areas of wet weather but hard to ascertain exactly where - as the frontal sytem's behaviour and progress will be rather unpredictable until nearer the event. Suffice to say wet in places, not everywhere though, and for some of us just a cloudy day with little rain. Temperatures should be average to quite mild, say 8 to 11c on Friday. Next weekend model outputs remain indecisive with various possibilities, best guess is somewhat unsettled with some rain at times and on the mild side with frost unlikely by this stage.[/font][/color]
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][attachment=230679:PPVG89 (1) early fog then bright dry Mon.png][attachment=230680:ecmt850.048 dry Mo.png][attachment=230681:PPVJ89 Tu m dry after fog patches little rain eve.png][attachment=230682:ecmt850.072 rain places Tu night to WEd.png][attachment=230683:PPVL89 little rain MIds m dry Wed WW.png][attachment=230684:PPVO89 m dry Th rain wind eve WW.png][attachment=230685:ecmt850.120 rain wind WW Th night milder.png][attachment=230686:metslp.120 rain wind TH night.png][attachment=230687:h850t850eu rain places FR.png][attachment=230688:ecmt850.168 mild somewhat unsettled weekend.png][attachment=230689:h850t850eu changeable weekend some rain times r mild.png][attachment=230690:prcpSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire often dry to TH then unsettled.png][attachment=230691:prmslWarwickshire H early low late.png][attachment=230692:t850Warwickshire chilly early week milder later.png][attachment=230693:mgram_Birmingham m dry fr and fog becoming unsettled.png][/font][/color]
  10. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Unsettled and often rather cold: wintry showers and longer spells of rain and (chiefly) hill snow; damaging gales late Wednesday into[/b][b] Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    Fog persisted much of last Sunday over parts of the Midlands and by teatime Church Lawford had only managed 1.8c, in contrast Pembrokeshire was quite mild with Milford Haven at 9.2c maximum. After the quiet start plenty of mild, rather unsettled and windy weather in the past week. Orographic (hill forced rainfall) produced 66.6mm at Capel Curig on Wednesday although rainfall totals for the week away from Snowdonia were modest over West Wales and negligible across the Midlands. A very mild week overall with Friday was remarkably mild for January, highest reading being 16.1c at Pershore (some 9c above average) while most places reached above 13c. Long-standing records broken in places too, for example Coventry where the high of 14.5c on Friday pipped the 14.4c recorded in Janury 1944. Central Europe too experienced this remarkable Winter warmth, with 25c recorded in northern Italy and 22c in the Swiss Alps on Saturday! It was often windy from Thursday to Saturday but we were far enough south to escape the worst of the damaging winds experienced up north.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    A disturbed week to come as some deep lows cross the Atlantic bringing showers or longer spells of rain. Showers, wintry in nature at times too, as behind the frontal systems we will be in cold polar air-masses, and significant snowfall is likely over high ground above about 1000 feet, this perhaps coming down to lower ground too briefly from time to time especially later in the week, so a fair chance quite a few of us will have seen our first snow cover of Winter come next weekend albeit not sticking for long. Often windy this week, and there are strong indications of widespread damaging gales later Wednesday into Thursday.

    Sunday afternoon is mostly dry, bright and breezy for the Midlands but is cloudier with some light showers for West Wales (WW) highs 7 to 9c, some places catching a passing shower, most likely Snowdonia. Wind picking up tonight as Atlantic fronts move in these bringing light rain to West Wales (WW) after midnight. A reasonably mild night but quite windy. Monday is then affected by a wriggling front across southern Britain which struggles to clear away SE. A mostly cloudy and windy day with rain at times, some heavy bursts, especially over South Wales and the South Midlands where the front slows down giving more prolonged rain afternoon into Monday evening. The rain should have cleared NW Wales and the NW Midlands by the end of the afternoon, with the winds easing too. Highs Monday a mild 9 to 11c. The rain eventually clears the South Midlands around midnight with some showers affecting WW by late night, and a local ground frost.

    A showery westerly airstream for Tuesday, complications perhaps with a trough feature accentuating showers afternoon and this dragging in colder air which could turn the rain or showers wintry especially over high ground. Just the chance should the precipitation be heavy enough and winds light enough so that evaporative cooling takes place which would have the effect of bringing snow down to lower levels too during Tuesday afternoon, so one of those Winter days when a surprise snowfall cannot be ruled out for some areas, even giving a slight covering, but most likely this would be restricted to land above 200m. Maxima Tuesday 4 to 7c, but turning colder through the afternoon, and for the most part a rather windy day. A wintry mix of rain, sleet, hail and even snow showers keep going through the evening and night for WW but it becomes largely dry for the Midlands where there will be a widespread frost down to -2c in places, frost more patchy across WW but is likely inland where showers hold off.

    Any remaining showers die out WW Wednesday morning, and for many it is a bright, dry and frosty start to the day with little sign of whats to come! The huge temperature contrast off the Eastern Seaboard of North America spawns a rapidly deepening low which is UK bound during Wednesday. This may be a very nasty low with the likely track taking it across Scotland during Wednesday night into Thursday. As the tightest isobars (pressure lines) and therefore strongest winds are nearly always found south of a low centre then England and Wales look like being pounded by gales, and potentially severe gales during Wednesday night, so for many areas damaging winds are likely between Wednesday evening and Thursday morning. Before that though most of Wednesday is dry bright and chilly, temperatures no higher than 4c away from WW coasts until evening, although set to rise further to 5 to 7c overnight. Winds though will strengthen through the afternoon as WW clouds over. Heavy rain and gale force winds then quickly move into WW early evening and onto the Midlands by midnight. The latest GFS model is showing a particularly nasty 950mbar low slowly crossing Northern Ireland Wednesday night with zones of severe gale force winds about its southern flanks. It could be that the gales ease later in the night only to pick up once more to severe gale during Thursday and worst affected would be Irish Sea coasts where gusts are likely to reach 80 to 90mph, even inland gusts would be over 60mph. At least the worst of the rain is gone by dawn Thursday!

    Further showers or longer spells of rain during Thursday with hill snow, and winds could still be severe, although most models do indicate an easing of the gales during the day. A chilly day too Thursday, feeling cold given the windchill, highs 4 to 6c, but milder for Pembrokeshire at 8c. Winds may ease enough for a widespread frost on Thursday night. Friday and Saturday are controlled by low pressure to our north and NE so a rather cold NW flow to end the week bringing wintry showers. Maxima just 3 to 5c both of these days and so hill snow could well be building up above 1500 feet, even lower down some temporary accumulations of snow possible away from coasts, but a general kitchen sink mix of rain, sleet, hail, some snow and even a clap of thunder Friday and Saturday along with drier brighter intervals! Clear spells will permit widespread overnight frost and icy stretches as temperatures dip as low as -3c locally, more generally inland though -1c.

    Next Sunday signs of a transient ridge giving a dry interlude ahead of wet and windy weather for Sunday night or Monday. This mix of weather looks like continuing through the rest of the month, although any prolonged cold snowy spell seems unlikely.[/font][/color]
    [attachment=237810:PPVG89 windy rain times.png][attachment=237815:viewimage Mo lingering front rain.png][attachment=237811:PPVJ89 surprise snow chance feature TU.png][attachment=237812:ecmt850.072 wintry sh TU.png][attachment=237813:PPVL89 DL heavy rain gales later Wed.png][attachment=237814:ecmt850.096 gales heavy rain We night.png][attachment=237816:viewimage storm Th showery.png][attachment=237817:PPVO89 gales showery hill snow TH.png][attachment=237818:viewimage FR wintry showers r cold windy.png][attachment=237819:ecmt850.144 r cold wintry showers frosts FR SA.png][attachment=237820:ecmt850.168 wk R m dry Su.png][attachment=237821:viewimage chilly week mostly.png][attachment=237822:viewimage frequent rain spikes drying WEND.png][attachment=237823:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=237824:viewimage sub 980 TH R WEND.png]
  11. TonyH
    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Headline: Mostly cold and frosty with a few wintry showers but often dry; more unsettled with snow risk Tuesday to Thursday[/b][/font][/color]

    [color=rgb(0,0,0)][font=Helvetica][b]Last weeks highlights[/b]

    A mild start to last week - it reached 12c in places on Monday which was a wet day especially for West Wales (WW). It turned colder on Tuesday with some areas getting snow, parts of WW saw quite a bit, several inches on high ground, even Llanwnnen collected 3cm relatively low down by the Teifi valley. Further wintry showers into Tuesday evening and night with vivid lightning and thunder across Wales, large hail and a tornado affecting Haverfordwest! Quite strange to watch the lightning flashing away while stood on a snow covered lawn! Wednesday evening and night saw heavy rain and strong to gale force winds, about an inch of rain for much of Wales and the Cotswolds, and locally damaging winds, highest gusts 96mph Capel Curig, 83mph Aberdaron, 81mph Mumbles with 61mph here at Llanwnnen (site record SRB 2013) Parts of the Midlands relatively unscathed though getting little rain and shelter from the worst of the winds. The low did have a warm sector overnight Wednesday when temperatures widely 10 or 11c. Chilly then since Thursday with wintry showers and some further temporary slight snow coverings in places, particularly Friday night (1cm Llanwnnen) and including parts of the Cotswolds and South Midlands. A fresh 10cm lay over the Brecon Beacons on Saturday morning.

    The first 17 days of January have been wet across Wales and much of the Midlands, but only a little above average for some parts of the Midlands, 125mm so far here at Llanwnnen, 41mm at Coventry, and 31mm Long Lawford thus far. It has been a mild month to date.

    [b]The week ahead[/b]

    Quite a cold week ahead, indeed it looks like being the coldest week since March 2013 such was the absence of cold throughout last Winter. Sunny intervals and a few wintry showers for the most part with plenty of dry, bright weather between, and frosty nights. However Tuesday and Wednesday sees an unsettled interlude, and given the chilly air there could be some sleet and snow about, although this perhaps not widespread at lower levels, for high ground (above say 250m) though the mid week period will be quite snowy with a good few inches settling up there.

    A frosty, sunny Sunday morning for many, largely dry this aftenoon with further sunny spells and the odd wintry shower, especially for Pembrokeshire as a 'Dangler' shower line may set up. Rather cold highs between 4 and 6c with a moderate north breeze. Clear and calm tonight with a sharp frost and freezing fog in places, lows between -3 and -6c, milder for most coasts. A slight ridge over us for Monday so a dry cold day in store. Freezing fog patches may be slow to clear and where these linger temperatures struggling to reach 0c, but elsewhere sunny spells and chilly highs between 2 and 4c with little wind. Another frost sets in during Monday evening and a dry, frosty night for the Midlands down as low as -4c, but clouding over WW by around midnight.

    Tricky predictions follow with fine and shifting margins dictating just where it will rain or snow: an occluded front edges east during Tuesday this bringing some rain, sleet and snow across Wales in the early hours, snow more likely inland and especially above 150m. This mix of precipitation moves onto the Midlands through Tuesday morning, again rain or sleet more likely at low levels with snow tending to be restricted to land above about 150m but this by no means certain, and it could turn out that even some low level places see snow falling at least for a time on Tuesday. Coastal areas of WW for sure will only be getting rain however. The wintry mix in any case clears WW afternoon with sunny intervals and the odd wintry shower following before dusk. Highs Tuesday between 2 and 5c with quite light winds. Some clearances during Tuesday evening with frost readily forming, however another wintry band of weather is set to move in from the WNW during the night. Slightly colder air digging in and so perhaps this band falling more generally as sleet or snow, with hills in particularly getting several cm coverings, but even some lower ground could have a covering come Wednesday morning.

    A flabby low slowly sinks south over the UK during Wednesday and with the still rather cold airmass there could be some wintry surprises for some! Bands of wintry precipitation or wintry showers within the lows circulation, although equally there will be areas where it is largely dry. All we can say is that there is a risk of snow for some places once more, perhaps the NE Midlands most at risk? Other places will see only rain, sleet or hail (especially coasts) while others escape largely dry, but for some of us a snowfall will occur during Wednesday even giving some accumulation. For hills above about 250m it should be snow all the way so long as precipitation is falling that is, with a good few inches settling should this happen. Maxima Wednesday generally 2 to 4c, perhaps 6c for coastal SW Wales. Wintry showers and some longer spells of sleet or snow continue well into Wednesday night, with perhaps the Midlands seeing a spell of snow and a covering even to lower levels by Thursday morning, but anywhere really could wake to a covering of snow. Clear intervals too which will allow slight frosts to form and so there will be icy stretches to watch for even if no snow cover exists, lows down to -2c in places.

    During Thursday the low sinks south into the Continent, a drier, brighter day expected with sunny intervals, but still some further wintry showers about and a cold NE breeze, highs just 2 to 4c. Any showers die out pm Thursday and it will be a frosty night, minima between -3 and -5c generally and even colder where there is snow cover, perhaps a -9c here and there. By the end of the week a degree of uncertainty as to whether the cold weather relinquishes or holds on over the weekend? On the whole a prediction of it staying on the cold side through most of the weekend would seem applicable. Plenty of dry weather for Friday and Saturday then but some further wintry outbreaks are possible in places too but these probably not widespread if at all. Some sunny spells and frosty nights. Sunday too could hold onto chilly and fairly dry weather..
    [attachment=239881:PPVG89 dry frost poss ff MO cold.png][attachment=239882:ecmt850.048 cold frosty Mo.png][attachment=239883:PPVJ89 wintry mix r cold Tu.png][attachment=239885:ecmt850.072 unsettled TU WE wintry mix chiefly hill snow r cold.png][attachment=239886:ecmt850.096 cold wintry precip about WE.png][attachment=239893:PPVL89 wintry mix WE chiefly hill snow cold.png][attachment=239898:viewimage wintry bands about We cold.png][attachment=239890:ecmt850.144 disruption wintry chances later FR.png][attachment=239887:viewimage wintry mix disturbance r cold Sa.png][attachment=239892:ecmt850.168 frsoty R Su.png][attachment=239894:viewimage precip TU WE otherwise m dry.png][attachment=239895:viewimage r cold week.png][attachment=239896:viewimage unsettled mid week.png][attachment=239897:mgram_Birmingham.png][/font][/color]
  12. TonyH
    [b][b]Headline: Warm and mostly dry until late in the week[/b][/b]

    April to July 2012 has already been the wettest such period in the 250 year England and Wales rainfall series, with an average of almost 20 inches falling in these soggy four months! At long last we are experiencing proper Summer weather with warm sunshine and dry days! It looks like the week ahead will turn even warmer with sunny spells and will be quite humid. Generally dry until Friday (start of the Olympics!) when it becomes cooler and unsettled.

    Sunday is turning out surprisingly sunny and warm here in west Wales, but cloud cover should arrive at some stage during this afternoon, and even with a little drizzle for this evening. A dry and mostly sunny Sunday for the Midlands. We have a stand off between a ridge of high pressure over the south, and weak fronts straggling down from a deep Icelandic low, for the start of this week. What this means is a warm first half of the week, in fact becoming very warm for the MIdlands in particular, with decent sunny spells here. For west Wales during Monday and Tuesday there is the legacy of weak fronts over or close by to us, so that cloud may prove more of a headache here, perhaps even with some drizzle in places on Monday. Let's hope that the strong July sunshine burns through this and we join the Midlands with the warm, fairly sunny weather! Temperatures on Monday and Tuesday up to a very warm 25c for the Midlands, and even if west Wales ends up cloudier, still into the low 20's here, so feeling warm and humid.
    [attachment=137330:brack0a warm dry mon.gif][attachment=137331:Rtavn421 R against front warm m dry.png][attachment=137332:Recm482 R kills off front Mon and Tue.gif]

    Pressure is slack and winds very light for Wednesday, we continue to be in the warm humid air mass, however the straggling front may pep up and provide us with a few heavy showers in the afternoon, but most of us will stay dry and warm with sunny spells, temperatures reaching 23 - 26c. A warm, uncomfortable night to follow. Thursday is the last of the warm to very warm days, perhaps the warmest, 27c is possible for the Midlands - the highest readings since May. Again the warmth may set off a few afternoon downpours for some areas, but generally another dry day.
    [attachment=137333:brack2a slack Wed few showers warm.gif][attachment=137334:Recm722 slack Wed few showers.gif][attachment=137335:Rtavn9017 very warm Wed.png][attachment=137336:brack4 Thu very warm threatens unsettled.gif][attachment=137337:Recm1202 hinting unsettled and cooler Fri.gif]

    For Friday things turn unsettled and cool off. High pressure is now based out in the Atlantic, while low pressure orientates from the near Continent to Scandinavia. This drags down cooler north-easterly winds by the end of Friday, and the Continental low threatens thundery rain or showers, more especially for the Midlands later on Friday. However, on the whole, still quite a warm day with some sunny intervals. A cool unsettled weekend to follow with low pressure close by, some heavy, perhaps thundery showers for many places too. Temperatures by then failing to reach 20c once more. So a relatively short- lived taste of Summer this week!
    [attachment=137338:Rtavn1381 Continental L showers FRi.png][attachment=137339:Recm1442 cooler unsettled FRi.gif][attachment=137340:Rukm1441 cooler unsettled Saturday.gif]
  13. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Some rain at times with dry spells too; fairly cool. Wet by next weekend.[/b]

    A cool, wet week gone, especially for west Wales, with well over 2 inches falling at Llanwnnen. There has even been a little sleet and wet snow in the showers, along with hail, thunder and lightning for some! A cool week too, on Thursday temperatures for many did not better 8c. This week will be somewhat drier, still some rain on some of the days but not all, and with some fairly decent dry interludes, these most likely for the Midlands. On the cool side again, although less so than last week. Ground frost may still feature on a few nights this week, probably too much breeze for any fog though. Turning wet for all by next weekend.

    Heavy snow for parts of the West Country this morning with a couple of inches in parts of Somerset - it is possible that over the south-east Midland's where it is raining heavily could see this turn to sleet even wet snow before it clears this afternoon (already reports of snow falling in Northamptonshire). Heavy showers with hail in places for west Wales this afternoon, and a cool day everywhere, maxima ranging from just 6c over the wet east Midlands to 10c in Pembrokeshire. Further showery rain tonight with a little low over the south, probably too much in the way of cloud for frost tonight.

    A cool northerly flow for Monday, sunny spells and a few showers, but many places staying dry. Maxima just 8 to 10c, so dry for any traditional Guy Fawkes night bonfires. Enough in the way of clear skies for a frost Monday night, although this may have cleared by Tuesday morning in west Wales, so you may not need the scraper here! A slight ridge of high pressure builds in for Tuesday so another mostly dry day, although quite a lot of cloud coming in with WNW breeze, and some rain may affect the Midlands for a time during the afternoon. Cool again Tuesday with 8 to 10c the highs, and feeling chilly in the breeze. Milder air so no frost on Tuesday night, perhaps some drizzle for west Wales.
    [attachment=143593:PPVG89 cool few showers Mon.png][attachment=143594:PPVJ89 m dry Tue.png][attachment=143595:ecm500.072 m dry Tue after frost.png]

    Low pressure closes in on Scotland on Wednesday with a cold front moving east over Wales and England, so rain at times for west Wales much of the day, this not reaching the Midlands until the evening, and then probably only light rain at worst. A little milder on Wednesday temperatures reaching the early November average of 11 or 12c. The cold front only moving slowly east on Wednesday night so still rain at times for the Midlands, but clearing over west Wales to a few showers, with just the chance of a ground frost here. Thursday a bright day, with sunny spells and a few showers, quite cool again maxima 9 or 10c. A small chance of the cold front waving back into the Midlands during Thursday to bring further spells of rain, but odds on a fairly dry day for most places. Clearing skies under a transient ridge gives widespread frost Thursday night, down to -2c in colder spots.
    [attachment=143596:PPVL89 CF brings some rain milder Wed.png][attachment=143597:Rtavn844 CF Wed.png][attachment=143598:ecmt850.096 cool some showers Thu.png]

    It could be a bright and frosty start on Friday, but then low pressure moving south of Iceland brings rain fronts east during Friday, although it could stay dry until late on across the Midlands. Feeling cool in an increasing south-west wind during Friday, temperatures no better than the early November average of 11c. Low pressure up against a blocking Russian high next weekend, with fronts becoming slow moving over the UK perhaps, and this could bring quite a lot of rain in places, and still on the cool side.
    [attachment=143599:ecmt850.144 rain wind from W Fri.png][attachment=143600:ecmt850.168 unsettled weekend.png][attachment=143601:Rtavn1624 SM trough weekend v wet places.png]
  14. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Changeable, turning colder, night frosts. Very cold with snow threat later.[/b][/size][/font]

    [b][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]2012 was a very wet year, the second wettest year of the past century for the UK averaged out overall.[/size][/font][/b]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 1526mm wettest year since 2008
    Coventry, Bablake School: 894mm, wettest since 2007
    Rugby:874mm, wettest since 1882 (916mm)!

    These figures show that Coventry tends to be wetter than it's near neighbour, due to Rugby being that bit further east. The Midlands are - needless to state - a lot drier than west Wales, with an exceptionally wet year at Rugby still being drier than the driest ever years at Llanwnnen. Incredibly the first 3 months of 2012 were dry with drought orders in place, and just 85mm from January to March at Rugby.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]December 2012 figures (again very wet):[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Llanwnnen: 257mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Coventry: 117mm[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Rugby: 112mm[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Almost certainly 2013 must be drier! At least January has began in a much drier, benign vein, however, the highest barometer readings since May (1039mbar), did not prevent occasional drizzle from falling over west Wales. Still no snow this Winter for most of us, and 2012 had no lying snow at all at Llanwnnen. A mild start to the year, the past 4 nights staying above 8c at Llanwnnen, the DAYTIME average for January is lower than this at 7c. Turning much colder by next weekend and there MAY be snow in places.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Another mostly cloudy but mild afternoon on Sunday, just the odd spit of drizzle for parts of west Wales, maxima around 10c once more. Our high pressure is losing ground to Atlantic fronts, but has enough presence to our south-east to keep at least the Midlands dry still on Monday. A waving front over Ireland threatens a little rain or drizzle at times on Monday for Wales, and perhaps some heavier bursts for Snowdonia. Mild again highs around 10c once more. Quite a strong SW wind developing for west Wales. The cold front slowly crosses all parts during Tuesday, so another mostly cloudy day. with rain slowly working east. Probably wet even to start the day for west Wales, while it may be late in the day before rain reaches the Midlands. A wet Tuesday in prospect for west Wales though, some rather heavy rain at times here. Tuesday is however the last of the mild days this week. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151498:PPVG89 some rain WW dry Mids Mon.png][attachment=151499:PPVJ89 CF rain to east Tue.png][attachment=151500:ecmt850.048 tr slowly comes over Tue wet pm.png][attachment=151501:ukprec wet day west Wales Tues.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A ridge of high pressure follows the rain for Wednesday, which starts with a ground frost for many places. Then a nice bright and dry day but cooler than of late, maxima of 7 or 8c, close to the January average. Wednesday night is largely clear and frosty with fog patches affecting some areas by Thursday morning. Big changes in our weather pattern underway from Thursday leading to a much colder and potentially wintry one, as a blocking high forms somewhere to our north. The exact positioning of this high will dictate how cold it gets from next weekend, but the potential is there for a very cold spell setting in with snow in places.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151502:PPVL89 dry bright Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]But back to Thursday itself, our ridge is getting squeezed by lows to the west and north-east, will this hang on? If so another bright, and coldish day after a frosty and possibly foggy start, however rain may threaten west Wales later. Exact weather details becoming increasingly difficult to pinpoint as we enter atmospheric flux, so do not make plans on the basis of this guide for next weekend! It is most likely that during Friday low pressure slides close to SW UK bringing rain here, hard to say how far north-east this extends at this predictive range, so Friday looks dry for most, but rain may edge up, more especially into south Wales and perhaps also the south Midlands, and as it does so colder Continental air is dragged over the UK. Just the chance of rain turning to snow for southern parts later on Friday or on Friday night, a cold and raw day maxima probably just 3 or 4c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151503:met.96 THu R m dry.png][attachment=151504:PPVO89 R hangs on Thu tr into SW.png][attachment=151505:ecmt850.144 FRi cold raw snow threat south.png][attachment=151506:h850t850eu cold m dry Fri.png][/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The ECM model has a very cold scenario next weekend, with a high close to Iceland and low over the near Continent, a really cold raw NE blast over the UK. GFS also shows a very cold weekend to come, but with a Scandinavian high in place. It will not take much in these kind of set ups for localised snowfalls to occur, no way of knowing where and when as yet, but suffice to say next weekend looks very cold with snow in places. Maxima barely above freezing come Sunday, so quite a shock to the system after all the mild, quiet weather of late! The cold set up looks like lasting well into the following week too.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=151507:ecmt850.168 v cold windy weekend snow showers poss.png][attachment=151508:h850t850eu Scand H v cold tr into W snow threat.png][/size][/font]
  15. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Very cold with persistent hard frost, snow for many places[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]The anticipated change to colder weather has happened and looks set to last throughout the coming week. Another relatively dry week gone, especially for the Midlands, just 2mm falling at Coventry, and merely 11mm here, near Lampeter, a chance for the rivers to drop to more normal levels and the fields to dry out somewhat. The very mild start to January has brought out the rose and honeysuckle leaves in our garden, as well as unseasonably early snowdrops in some places, and I have heard snatches of Song Thrush, however, we should not be fooled into thinking an early Spring is on the cards![/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Quite a hard frost this morning, a low of -4.7c here in Ceredigion, and -3c in Warwickshire. Mostly dry, cold and bright this afternoon for the Midlands, just the outside chance a few places could see a snow flurry. Already west Wales has clouded over as weather fronts from a low pressure system north of Scotland approach. This system is set to bring a mix of rain, sleet and snow across England and Wales during the next 36 to 48 hours as it gradually tracks southeast. There is a less cold sector within the system which helps to complicate what actually falls from the sky! It was looking like the Midlands would get a fair amount of snow during Monday, however recent model runs have relented somewhat so that more of a mix of snow, sleet and rain can be expected, with the more snowy picture further east in the Midlands perhaps. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Already a wintry mix into north-west Wales, and this generally light rain, sleet and snow spreads across the rest of west Wales this afternoon. Light rain for coasts, but snow inland, at least for a time. Hills above about 200m in for an inch or so this evening, but probabaly little or no accumulation below this level, so Lampeter, for example expected to remain untroubled by snow this evening. This snow moves into the Midlands too this evening giving a couple of inches in places, although after midnight, as less cold air moves across, this may turn to sleet or rain over the West Midlands. The East Midlands set to wake up to a good few inches on Monday morning, and it could have stayed as snow all night east of Coventry with temperatures still close to zero by dawn? A real knife-edge situation for the Midlands during Monday, and potentially further snowfall in places here, while for others, especially west of Coventry, sleet and rain showers more likely through the day. Enough snow about for the Midlands to cause some traffic disruption through the day. Very cold for the MIdlands on Monday, maxima only 2c at best. For west Wales, showery and rather cold sums it up for Monday, these showery outbreaks probably falling as rain and sleet away from high ground above about 300m, although as it turns colder through the evening they tend to turn to snow more widely inland, so even Lampeter and Carmarthen may have a slushy covering by midnight. Hills of mid and north Wales getting a good few inches snow covering through Monday night as wintry showers continue. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153376:prectypeuktopo snow tonight Midlands.png][attachment=153374:Mon wintry mix.png][attachment=153375:h850t850eu wintry Monday snowy E Midlands.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Probably not enough snow to cause problems in south and west Wales below 100m on Tuesday morning, so for Aberystwyth, Carmarthen, and Llanelli traffic should not be affected compared with higher up and futher inland. Most of the sleet and snow will have cleared the Midlands by midnight on Monday, although a few snow showers still making it through overnight, and a frosty night too, away from coastal west Wales. The low pressure has moved away by Tuesday morning, so a largely dry, bright day for most, just the chance of a snow shower in places; cold maxima only around zero for the snow covered east Midlands and 3c for west Wales. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]High pressure asserts over Scandinavia from Wednesday, this often a sign of an impending very cold spell, especially when the UK is already in cold air as it will be, and with the snow cover for some areas enhancing the severe frosts. Wednesday and Thursday both set to be very cold indeed with severe night frosts, and temperatures struggling to reach zero by day, especially for inland Wales and the Midlands. Fairly sunny and dry days, just an isolated snow shower affecting the East Midlands perhaps. Temperatures down as low as -9c by night and close to zero by day. Freezing fog could also be an issue in places, and were this to persist then highs well below freezing, just -3c or so where this happens along some of the river valleys.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153377:PPVK89 H asserts Scand Wed.png][attachment=153380:h850t850eu R from Scand Wed.png][attachment=153378:ecmt850.096 cold block Wed Thu.png][attachment=153379:PPVO89 v cold H Thu dry frosty poss fog.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]This cold blocking high should keep the Atlantic at bay through into Friday, although signs are that by then weather fronts attempt to push towards the west. This could well make things interesting regards further snow potential at the end of this week and into next weekend! For Friday and the weekend then, it looks likely to stay cold but with fronts edging in from the west attempting to make it milder. As usual this begs the questions of 'battleground snowfall' possibilities and 'will the cold relent'? The Atlantic looks like having quite a difficult time against the Scandinavian high over the weekend, although the latest model outputs suggest less cold air with rain wins out after the snow by Sunday - so will we all be snow covered this time next week or will it just be cold and damp? We will see as usual![/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=153381:met.120 cold block holds to Fri.png][attachment=153383:ecmt850.168 battleground snow weekend.png][attachment=153384:h850t850eu less cold wins out weekend.png][/size][/font]
  16. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Mild, dry to start, then unsettled with rain at times[/b]

    A prolonged late Winter dry spell has been welcomed after the preceding deluge since last April! 17 consecutive dry days at Llanwnnen and counting, while the dry run at Coventry was broken by a measly 0.2mm fall on Friday. Overall February was rather dry for West Wales and average to rather wet for the Midlands. February being the driest month of the year in some areas, so although the 44mm that fell on Rugby during February seems a low figure it is actually slightly above average, Coventry was more definitely wet having 58mm ([url="http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/"]http://bws.users.netlink.co.uk/[/url])

    The dry weather lasts a few more days, we get much milder conditions in the coming week, but from mid week we see a return of the rain. A hard early March frost in places last night, here in my frost prone spot, -7.3c was recorded this morning, not unusual for March, but lower than any of the official UK weather stations today. High pressure that has dominated our weather for almost 3 weeks, slips away east during Monday, but still projects a ridge across the UK. So after another frosty start, Monday continues the dry spell, variable cloud with sunny intervals, highs of 8 or 9c again. Probably the last frost of the week on Monday night, and only a slight one at that, lows around -1c. On Tuesday we are between high pressure well to the east and low pressure edging up from the SW, with a mild SE airstream having originated over North Africa affecting the British Isles. Most places staying dry with sunny intervals through Tuesday, although clouding over later for West Wales with the odd spot of rain by evening. Maxima of 12 or 13c, the mildest we have seen so far this young year.
    [attachment=162839:PPVG89 H recedes dry bright Mon.png][attachment=162840:PPVK89 rain west late Tue.png]

    The low centred to the SW of Ireland continues to pump up mild SE to southerly winds throughout Wednesday and Thursday, more widespread outbreaks of rain or showers tracking north, with some heavy bursts of rain at times, so the Midlands also joins in with a wetter theme! Indeed West Wales could be in for a real soaking as a succession of rain fronts pass over later Wednesday and Thursday. Brief sunny intervals possible between the showery outbreaks, feeling mild in these, highs of 10 to 12c, but with a moderate to fresh breeze. Nights also much milder from mid week, so that by Wednesday night most places remain above 7c (time to reduce the Central Heating?). The low pressure keeps spinning around to the west or SW of Ireland even to the end of the week, with further rain or heavy showers about on Friday, perhaps some warm sunny intervals between, highs around 14c in places, more especially SW Wales, well above the early March average of 8 or 9c. On the other hand, any rain areas that do develop on Friday could well be slow moving, and where it stays wet highs nearer 10c.
    [attachment=162841:ecmt850.072 mild unsettled SE Wed.png][attachment=162842:PPVO89 mild very unsettled Thu.png][attachment=162846:metslp.96 mild unsettled Wed THu.png][attachment=162843:ecmt850.120 mild v unsettled Fri.png]

    Next weekend and some very cold air will be getting into Scotland from the NE, bringing snow in places up there, however Wales and the Midlands should still be in the milder air circulating the low close to our SW. Further rain and showers over the weekend, frosts unlikely, and with highs between 9 and 12c. A chance that the colder air makes it on Sunday but this should hold off until a late taste of Winter for the week that follows, even with snow showers in places, this cold snap strongly suggested by recent model output.
    [attachment=162844:ecmt850.168 unsettled cooler by Sun.png][attachment=162845:h850t850eu unsettled cooler weekend.png][attachment=162847:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff cold snap following week.png]
  17. TonyH
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][b]Headline: Cool and unsettled; rain and wind at times, mostly dry Friday/ Saturday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A cold but dry start to April, coldest over the Midlands last week with more cloud, while plenty of sunshine for West Wales meant that 9 or 10c in the afternoons felt pleasant out of the wind, and I understand that it was pleasant enough to sit outside on Saturday afternoon for the Midlands too. An exceptionally cold Friday night across Wales, the official Met Office stations of Trawsgoed and Sennybridge recording -7c, while my amateur site incredibly got down to -8.5c around dawn on Saturday, quite a few Winters have not managed so low! Comfortably the lowest April temperature I have read in my lifetime, incidentally the coldest ever April night in Wales was -11.2c back on 11th April 1978 at Corwen (diolch [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/DerekTheWeather"]@DerekTheWeather[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ). Coventry had it's coldest April night since 1990 today down to -3.6c (thanks [/size][/font][url="https://twitter.com/bablakewx"]@bablakewx[/url][font=arial, sans-serif][size=3] ) Three successive nights below -6c here now to this morning, that is the last extreme cold night though. It is now 15 days since measurable rain (or snow) fell at my weather station, the second such 'drought' in just two months. Milder air struggles to get over us in the coming week, it does of a fashion, but only to around the mid April average of 11 to 13c and this not until the very end of the week, and there will be rain at times, especially mid week.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Clouding over on Sunday afternoon but staying dry, with highs around 9c and a cold SE wind affecting West Wales in particular. Most parts dry tonight with clear spells leading to a slight frost, however a little rain may affect SW Wales, keeping it frost-free there. Weak weather fronts lie over SW Britain on Monday so a rather cloudy day with light rain in places, this more especially for SW Wales. Some sunny intervals, these most likely for the Midlands, another rather cool day, highs of 9 or 10c, with a keen ESE breeze making it feel even colder. Clear intervals leading to a slight frost in places on Monday night, although as low pressure moves into SW England further rain will threaten SW Wales and the South Midlands, this perhaps even producing sleet or snow over the Brecon Beacons and Cotswolds. This low pressure sits over southern England whilst filling up during Tuesday, which will be a cold and raw day with rain at times, some perhaps heavy in places. Maxima very poor for April at just 6 to 9c, mildest for SW Wales.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167903:PPVG89 cool breezy little rain Mon.png][attachment=167904:PPVJ89 cold raw rain at times Tue.png][attachment=167905:h850t850eu Tue cold raw rain times.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]A messy synoptic set up into Wednesday with the old weather front strung out across England and Wales, as the next low edges in from the west. Even by mid week though, our cold air mass legacy from early April and before, is proving reluctant to move away, and is why it will be feeling disappointingly cool still. Still some showery rain and hill sleet or snow about through Tuesday night and Wednesday morning, although any clear intervals resulting in a slight frost the air so chilly. Rain dying out for a time on Wednesday even some bright intervals, but another cool day highs just 7 to 9c. By Wednesday night the next and deep low is moving into SW England or South Wales bringing heavy rain and strong winds, not just rain either, as the low engages our cold air mass, Snowdonia and the Peak District seeing more sleet or snow. More rain and wind for Thursday morning, the wind turns NW in the afternoon as the low crosses England, so a cool, showery afternoon and evening in store, with hail in places, and highs on Thursday just 6 to 9c depending on amounts of sunshine during the afternoon.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167906:ecmt850.072 messy cool unsettled Tue Wed.png][attachment=167907:PPVL89 Wed messy cool unsettled.png][attachment=167908:ecmt850.096 wet windy Wed night.png][attachment=167909:PPVO89 cool rain or showers windy Thu.png][attachment=167910:h850t850eu cool showery Thu after rain.png][/size][/font]


    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]Friday could well be the best day of the week, as the low is well to our east, with a bit of a ridge over the UK. A frosty start to Friday, then a fairly sunny and dry day for most, bar an isolated shower, and highs of 10 to 12c which is close to the mid April average.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167911:metslp.120 quiet Fri.png][attachment=167912:ecmt850.144 Fri m dry frost sun.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3]It was looking as though the weekend would see a significant warm up, with mild southerly winds affecting the UK, however this is now less defined, and may well be just a 'blip'. GFS keeps relatively high pressure over England through most of the weekend, and with sunny spells temperatures would reach above average at 13 to 15c, however ECM has a nasty Atlantic low piling in by Saturday night. So according to the ECM model only Saturday may stay mild and fine, then strong to gale force southerly winds and heavy rain arrives by Saturday night and could give a washout next Sunday. Even GFS brings the rain and wind later on Sunday. It does though look as like we will have seen the back of Winter at long last come next weekend (more like Autumn perhaps!).[/size][/font]
    [font=arial, sans-serif][size=3][attachment=167913:ecmt850.168 IL gales heavy rain late Sat Sun.png][attachment=167914:h850t850eu fine mild weekend.png][/size][/font]
  18. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Some rain at times, becoming mild mid week; very cool and showery from Friday with potentially damaging frosts next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Last week saw strong winds with some rain at times, but amounts of rain were generally small. April is shaping up to be a dry month for the Midlands, and with quite small amounts of rain likely in the coming week again here. It was quite warm for the Midlands to mid week, mild rather than warm for West Wales, then we all cooled off on Thursday, and Friday night saw a widespread air frost, but at least the week ended bright and dry. Another rather changeable week with some rain and showers about, mild mid week, especially for the Mdlands, but then the week ends on a very cool and showery note with sharp night frosts making an unwelcome return.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Rain and drizzle for West Wales this Sunday afternoon, and a cloudy afternoon for the Midlands with a little rain later. Skies clear overnight with a ground frost in places. A rather unsettled start to the working week, Monday dawns dry but quickly clouding over for West Wales as the next Atlantic fronts arrive. A cool and rather wet day for West Wales on Monday, most of the rain and drizzle fairly light though, but a very unpleasant, damp and breezy day. Light rain and drizzle then gets to the Midlands by mid afternoon after a bright start to the day here. Although we will be within a warm sector by Monday evening, this mildness will not be apparent through the daytime, what with the dampness and cool westerly breeze at the surface, so maxima of just 10 to 12c will be during the early evening. The weakening cold front will be strung out over Wales and the Midlands on Monday night, so a rather cloudy night with drizzle in places, but it should have dried up by dawn on Tuesday. High pressure close by to our south on Tuesday but still a weak front legacy over the UK, so a rather cloudy but dry day, bar the odd spot of drizzle for West Wales. It could well brighten in the afternoon over the Midlands, and if so pleasantly mild reaching 17c locally, however for cloudier West Wales highs just 12 to 15c, but with much less of a breeze during Tuesday. [/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168711:PPVG89 Mon cool some rain.png][attachment=168712:PPVJ89 Tue wk front r cloudy milder.png][attachment=168713:ecmt850.072 dry r cloudy mild Tue to Wed.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Synoptic charts becoming difficult to decipher as early as Wednesday this week, but the trend will be for the relatively mild air to be pushed away to our south by Thursday, and with some quite wet weather possible in the transition process, with a slow moving frontal zone likely to linger over Wales and the Midlands well into Thursday. High pressure keeps much of Wednesday dry for the south, but a slow moving cold front could well bring rain to Wales through Wednesday afternoon, although this is not yet 'nailed' and we could get another mostly dry day instead? In any case, the Midlands more likely to stay dry for most of Wednesday. Temperatures on Wednesday dependent on the progress of the cold front, so if the Midlands manages to stay dry and bright, then a rather warm day in prospect with highs up to a rather warm 18c, but conversely, should West Wales have the cloudy, damp day that seems likely, a cool 11 or 12c only here. If Wednesday was difficult to forecast, then Thursday is little more than guesswork! Slack pressure on Thursday so light winds look almost guaranteed, if not the other elements of the days weather which could be wet or dry! We will have the slow moving front from Wednesday to contend with, this lying somewhere over southern Britain, but it is difficult to tell just how active it will be at this stage, as we also have a ridge of high pressure over central UK. It does though look like the mild air will have been displaced south by Thursday, and where (if) it turns out wet then a very cool day of highs below 10c.[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168714:PPVL89 changes mild but perhaps wet later.png][attachment=168715:metslp.96 CF Wales Wed.png][attachment=168717:h850t850eu CF into mild Wed.png][attachment=168718:PPVO89 Thu weakenig front Mids.png][attachment=168719:ecmt850.120 cool down Thu R after front.png][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Things seem more sorted out for the end of the week perversely, with high pressure out over the Atlantic and low pressure over the Continent to our east, this means a cool, very cool even, northerly flow for Friday and next weekend. The last of any rain will clear on Thursday night with clear spells and a ground frost developing, lows getting down towards zero. A bright start to Friday, but showers will develop, these becoming heavy with hail and thunder in places, more likely for the Midlands. Disappointing highs between 9 and 11c on Friday in spite of the sunny intervals. Very cool upper air for the time of year is over the UK next Saturday (-6c at 5000 feet), so a frosty dawn on Saturday (6am if you are up), given clear spells on Friday night. Another day of sunny intervals and heavy showers, some with hail again, and a very cool day, maxima struggling to even reach doubles figures 10c. It is possible we could be under a cold ridge next Saturday night, which would be an ideal set up for a notably cold late April night, -5c not out of the question, and a damaging frost for gardeners to watch out for. However, that is a week away and it may be somewhat different come the time. The cool, rather unsettled theme looks like continuing into the start of May, with the heat going to Eastern Europe unfortunately![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=168720:h850t850eu cool showery Fri.png][attachment=168721:ecmt850.144 cool showery Sat.png][attachment=168722:ecmt850.168 Sun cold R notable late frost poss.png][attachment=168723:ukmintemp exceptionally cold night under R Sun possible.png][attachment=168724:t850Caerdydd~-~Cardiff.png][attachment=168725:mgram_Birmingham.png][/size][/font]
  19. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Average start then appreciable cool down; fairly dry but a few showers, rain threatening the Midlands Friday[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Cool last week, with frost, sleet and even snow for high ground! Many of us saw several ground frosts, and even an air frost for a few places. Lowest readings +1c for Coventry on Wednesday night and -1c here at Llanwnnen on Friday morning. Tuesday was very wet for SW Wales, 2 inches of rain fell at Llanwnnen while Pembrey Sands in Carmarthenshire had 3 inches, there were blobs of icy sleet on the windscreen as we drove about on Tuesday evening. Amazingly for mid May the Brecon Beacons and high ground over 400m had snow, with 2 inches of snow lying near Newcastle on Clun, close to Offa's Dyke in Shropshire. Not all doom and gloom as there were decent sunny spells between the scattered showers from Wednesday onwards and in these it felt reasonably warm even if temperatures remained below average. No day managed above 15c (59f) for SW Wales last week, although after this protracted cool weather even 13c in sunny spells felt pleasant enough on Saturday afternoon! SW Wales on Friday saw some very heavy downpours, with hail and thunderstorms, officially Milford Haven was the wettest place in the UK with 14mm from afternoon downpours, although the rainfall radar suggested that over 50mm fell between Haverfordwest and Narberth, and there was flooding reported near Whitland in Carmarthenshire. So far this month, 6 days have seen hail fall here at Llanwnnen, hail showers are more typical of early rather than late Spring! Apart from the soaking on Tuesday, parts of the Midland's missed the worst of the showers last week, less than 1mm falling at Coventry from Wednesday onwards. Russia and Eastern Europe has been enjoying very hot weather for the past week, it has topped 30c daily over parts of Russia...we can only dream..but at least the coming week is predominantly dry, although again temperatures will struggle to top the average and with another pronounced cool down mid week, giving further ground frosts and showers.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Saturday Wales and the Midlands were fortunate as all the wet weather kept to our north, and so we are again on Sunday with the rain to our south over the English Channel. We are getting the dregs of the heat that affected Eastern Europe that made it to the UK via looping up to Scandinavia (it's a long story)- the only true warmth though is at 5000 feet, at the surface the air is more moderated down to closer to the average. Sunny periods and feeling pleasant on Sunday, temperatures pushing 20c for parts of the Midlands, although generally more like 16 to 18c around the mid May mean. so not feeling too bad. A mild rather humid northerly flow for Monday, rather extensive cloud but sunny intervals breaking through at times, more especially out west. Weak fronts in the flow causing a little rain or a shower in places, these more likely over the Midlands. Maxima on Monday 16 to 19c, but cooler on some coasts, A noticeably milder Monday night lows of 8 to 10c, Tuesday is another day of variable and in places extensive cloud cover with sunny intervals, but equally the odd spit of rain or light shower. The relatively warm air hangs on with highs of 15 to 18c generally, although cooler for coasts having onshore breezes, North Wales and southern Cardigan Bay for example. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Early on Wednesday a weak cold front clears south to leave a bright but fresher day, the start of a cool northerly plunge of air between high pressure over the Atlantic and low pressure over Scandinavia. Wednesday then some good sunny spells and only a few showers, again these most likely for the Midlands, with a heavy shower possible for the East Midlands later in the day. Maxima just 12 to 15c, poor for late May. Even cooler air pushes down from the north on Thursday, with -5c 'upper' temperatures at 5000 feet, this notably cold for late May, and this means snow showers for the Scottish Highlands again! Clearing skies lead to a widespread ground frost on Wednesday night, and it will be a sunny start to Thursday. However, cumulus clouds will soon develop in the unstable air mass with convective showers scattered about for the afternoon. Some heavy showers in places with hail and thunder a possibility, although West Wales coasts more likely to stay fine and dry. Maxima very cool on Thursday at 10 to 13c in spite of the sunny intervals! Clearing skies on Thursday night means another widespread ground frost, even the risk of localised air frost, my garden perhaps a 'favoured' spot for this, lows generally 0 to 3c (this less than a month from the longest day!)[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Friday we are still in the very cool Arctic northerly, with the added complication that a deep low may track down the North Sea threatening wet weather for Eastern England, while at the same time high pressure is attempting to push into Ireland. A stab then at Friday, would be sunny spells and some showers, parts of West Wales escaping these, while the Midlands catches a few heavy downpours. The chance that the low encroaches close enough later Friday into Saturday to bring more general wet weather into the Midlands but this by no means definite. Cool or very cool Friday highs just 10 to 13c again, certainly feeling chilly in the shade! Next weekend a similar pattern of pressure high to our west and low to the east, however subtle differences. A 'warm' low will have dumb-belled about the previous 'cold' low and will be over the near Continent next weekend, introducing milder upper air. GFS brings shallow low pressure over southern Britain while ECM more inclined to keep this at bay. The suggestion is of a somewhat unsettled weekend, showers in places but other areas escaping and remaining fairly dry, temperatures still no great shakes as the milder uppers are not likely to be realised at the surface with the predominating NE flow. Overall for the next seven days West Wales largely dry, the Midlands more at risk of any rain or showers, reasonable temperatures to start with, but becoming very cool from mid week.[/size][/font]
  20. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Mainly dry, quite sunny and rather warm, some showers; perhaps unsettled next weekend[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]It did turn drier through the latter half of the week past, although not much warmth as yet apart from the Midlands and parts of South Wales reaching the low 20's c on Friday. Some more unseasonably cool days experienced of late, Monday was very cool and wet the 'high' below 10c here, and it was a wet week over the Midlands, with a total of 32mm during the week at Coventry. Nationally, Spring 2013 was the coldest since 1962, but as far as the Central England Temperature series goes it has, amazingly, been the coldest since 1891! May, and although not particularly wet with 125mm, was the wettest since May 2006 here at Llanwnnen. At long last a welcome spell of generally warmer and drier weather in the coming week. No real heat in the offing, but we will be in the 'rather warm' category, that is slightly above the average which is 17 to 19c in early June. Unfortunately, this does not mean that the whole of Summer 2013 will be pleasant, we will have to wait and see on that, but mid June is looking poor...[/size][/font]


    [font=arial][size=3]Plenty more sunshine on Sunday afternoon with temperatures close to the early June average reaching 17 to 19c widely. North and west facing coasts struggling to get above just 13c in spite of the sunshine, this because the sea temperatures are still unseasonably cool at 11c thanks to the cold Spring, and any sea breeze brings that chilly air onshore. A largely clear and chilly night follows, cold enough for a grass frost in many areas, lows 2 to 4c, so yes, we can still get frosts in a cool air mass this close to the Summer Solstice! High pressure slap bang over the UK through Monday, so another dry and sunny day, a touch warmer too, maxima 18 to 21c, although again cooling sea breezes. In spite of the high pressure, GFS model insists on showing showers developing during the afternoon, probably due to some upper atmospheric instabilty, however I feel that this risk is minimal and any showers only isolated and light, while virtually everywhere stays dry and sunny. By Tuesday our high has transferred to northern Scandinavia but still extends a ridge south over the UK. A chilly dawn on Tuesday after a largely clear night, this heralding another mainly dry day, with sunny periods and perhaps an isolated shower for the Welsh hills or Peak District. With the high to the north the drift of air on Tuesday is more from the NE so West Wales could see some of the highest temperatures, 21c in places here, but more general figures of 18 to 20c expected.

    Wednesday, and the charts have that complicated, messy look to them with no discernable high or low close to our shores, a kind of synoptic 'No Man's Land'! Another cool start but the sun soon gets to work, although with the decreased pressure, and likely that a weak trough is in the mix too, providing the spark for some showers to develop through the afternoon into early evening, these most likely over Wales and where a few places could catch a heavy, even thundery downpour. Highs on Wednesday a little above average at 18 to 21c, with gentle breezes. Thursday and Friday still sees relatively high pressure over most of the UK, so more mostly dry and bright weather, with rather warm temperatures, maxima between 18 and 22c. Not completely dry, as is the theme of the week really, some places will catch a shower again towards the end of the week, but these are not expected to be at all widespread, and the vast majority of us will remain virtually dry.

    The weekend may see the dry spell hanging on, but we are under threat from lows both over the near Continent, and also from the Atlantic, so we will be most fortunate if we do not see rain arrive by Sunday! The weather looks set to turn cool and wet during the week that follows, so best make the most of this coming week![/size][/font]
  21. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: MIxed; some rain at times, but equally dry and warm at times too (no washout!)[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A fantastic dry, warm and sunny week here in West Wales. Almost unbroken sunshine, I estimate 90 hours since this time last week. The cool air mass early in the week illustrated by 3 successive grass frosts on my lawn from Sunday to Tuesday, athough air temperatures stayed above plus 3c. The MIdlands has not fared as well being plagued by cool NE winds and low cloud from time to time, that stuck virtually the whole of Wednesday keeping it cool at below 15c max, this returning again over this weekend, reminding Midlanders how cool the North Sea still is in early Summer. Each day rose above 20c for inland Wales, with some very warm days late in the week, warmest being 25c from such diverse places as Porthmadog, Lampeter and Llanelli on Friday. At Coventry, the cool North Sea breeze prevented temperatures from getting above 20c except on Friday (20.1c). This time last year 80mm rain had fallen so far in June at Llanwnnen and 67mm at Coventry- exceptionally high figures, and the devastating floods had just occurred in the Aberystwyth and Machynlleth areas, but in total contrast so far this month ZERO rain. There will be some rain in the coming week, and for West Wales a cloudier week, but we lose the NE flow, and so the Midlands actually becomes warmer with above average temperatures for a change here! Thankfully no chance of the washout conditions of June 2012 are being predicted.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Yet another sunny and warm day for West Wales on Sunday, whereas the ongoing saga for the Midlands of 'will it, won't it clear?' regarding the North Sea cloud. As with Saturday, there should be sunny spells during the afternoon for the Midlands, especially the West Midlands, however none too warm at only 17c or so this afternoon, compared with 20 to 23c highs over West Wales. A clear and cool night follows, subtle changes in wind direction should halt the return of the North Sea cloud sheet for the Midlands, so close to a grass frost here too, lows of just 3 to 6c. HIgh pressure is declining over the UK during Monday as Atlantic fronts queue up to our west. Monday though a largely dry and warm day with sunny spells, the Midlands joining in as well, highs close to 21c on Monday. Just the chance of an afternoon shower over the Welsh hills. Low pressure is centred to the west of Ireland on Tuesday, with the remnants of our high over the North Sea. Fronts do cross the UK on Tuesday but these are expected to be weak and only produce a little rain in places, as is typical, West Wales more likely to be cloudy and damp, with sunny intervals for the Midlands on Tuesday. A rather warm and humid SW flow with maxima of 19c for West Wales and 22c for the Midlands (quite an improvement in fortunes here). We are in the warm sector of the low on Tuesday night so a mild, sticky kind of Summer night, lows just 12 or 13c. It could be quite a wet night for Wales as more active fronts make their presence felt, but probably only a little light rain for the Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Low pressure sytems close by to the west and north through Wednesday, so an unsettled and rather cloudy day with further rain at times, some heavy for West Wales perhaps, although again the Midlands most likely only seeing small amounts. A cooler day with all the cloud about, highs between 16 and 19c, below the mid June average. The rain should have cleared by Thursday morning, with a ridge over us, so a fine sunny day, if not especially warm as we are in a relatively cool westerly airstream, maxima ranging from 17c for coastal West Wales to 20c for the Midlands. There is a chance that the rain may linger longer into Thursday towards th east, meaning the Midlands could get a wet Thursday morning. Difficulties in forecasting Friday, although ostensibly under the influence of the ridge still, a plume of warm air is crossing the near Continent, and some heavy rain may well develop over England and Wales during Friday, but impossible to say where exactly this will effect and where will remain dry. So for Friday, something to bear in mind is that it may be turning wet even if it looks promising to start with, and if cloudy and wet, then a very cool day no higher than 13c, contrasting starkly with warmth for areas that stay dry.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and disapponting for us in Wales, as compared to this stunningly warm and sunny weekend we are currently experiencing, we have low pressure, cloud and rain threatening instead! Not raining all the time, more a case of sunny intervals and showers type weather through the weekend, possibly with a longer spell of rain in the mix also. Saturday probably the drier day, indeed some areas escaping with a warm sunny day, more especially the Midlands, closest to high pressure over the near Continent. Sunday and more widespread showers likely.[/size][/font]
  22. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Warm with some thundery showers to mid week, then much cooler, unsettled next weekend[/b]

    [font=arial][size=3]The weather over the past week has been quite a shock to the system for us in West Wales,with the abrupt change to cool, rather cloudy and at times wet weather, following on from the previous week of warmth and almost unbroken sunshine! Frequent rain and showers since Wednesday has deposited 25mm in the rain gauge here, although far from a washout of a week. Coventry was the wettest place in the UK on Friday as a train of heavy showers and thunderstorms tracked in a narrow line through the Midlands giving over 20mm in the afternoon alone, whilst nearby Rugby and Warwick escaped with just a millimetre or so! A disappointingly cool as well as wet week, for a time on both Thursday and Saturday afternoon's the temperature was below 10c here- at least the nights have been milder with all the cloud, missing those ISS passovers though. Another mixed week ahead with no definite weather patterns emerging, some dry fine days, but rain or showers on others, so again far from a washout of a week at least, even if we will not be seeing any settled dry and wam spell in the making just yet. Some fine margins with our weather this week, as slight shifts of slow-moving weather fronts could make all the difference, say between a wet and dry day, but we will try our best..[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]On Sunday low pressure will fail to make inroads into the UK remaining to our SW, it's slow-moving fronts will however make it a mainly cloudy afternoon for West Wales and the South Midlands, although the rain should be restricted to South Wales and the far SW Midlands. Sunny intervals and just an isolated shower for the bulk of the Midlands this afternoon. Very cool in the rain for SW Wales highs of just 14c, but 18c for the brighter North Midlands, so a pleasant afternoon here. During this evening rain may extend into NW Wales too, and overnight further rain at times for West Wales, some heavier bursts in places. On Monday there is a heat low over France but relatively high pressure over northern UK, we should just about escape the rain and showers on Monday which should be a fine and dry day for the majority, just the chance of some rain skirting the South Wales coast during the afternoon. Sunshine breaks through the cloud for most, but not a plain sunny day, more a case of sunny intervals, feeling rather humid with a gentle east breeze and highs around 21c 70f, so not a bad day on Monday. However, even at this stage in the forecasting, Monday could possibly see greater advancement north of the southern England front, so something to bear in mind is that it may go pear-shaped with some rain affecting more of us, but odds are on a decent day. Clearing skies to follow so hopefully an opportunity to view the ISS once more (there is a very bright pass around 22:30). Good news for Tuesday is that the warm, humid Continental air will be advecting NW over England and Wales. A front will be introducing this warm, humid air, and so plenty of cloud and even some spots of rain during the morning, the cloud should break to sunny intervals through Tuesday afternoon, feeling quite sultry, and in turn this sunshine will be setting off a scattering of showers by evening, even with some thunder for one or two spots. Maxima a warm 21 to 24c, A mild, rather sticky night to follow as any showers die out, no lower than 15c for SW Wales and the South Midlands. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Forecasting is especially problematic for Wednesday and Thursday with a ridge of high pressure trying to push into the UK, but may be thwarted by the still present heat low over the near Continent. The model concensus now though seems that for Wednesday the shallow low makes it over to England thus maintaining the supply of warm and humid air, especially over the Midlands where 27c (80f) is not out of the question, cooler at 20c or so for Cardigan Bay where there will be a pleasant onshore breeze. Sunny spells on Wednesday, but this heat would no doubt be setting off torrential, thundery showers and storms through Wednesday afternoon and evening. Incidentally the Low Countries could well be hitting the 90's f on Wednesday! Earlier model output would have brought us a cooling ridge of high pressure by Wednesday but this scenario can now largely be discounted in favour of the humid, potentially thundery one outlined above. For Wednesday night, and the cooler air starts to push east, this though likely to develop a trough over Wales where it could potentially be a very wet night. Much cooler then on Thursday, as our warm, thundery low is headed for Scandinavia, with a weak Atlantic ridge coming into the west. A cool northerly flow on Thursday with showers, more especially over the Midlands where they will be heavy at times. A big drop in temperatures from Wednesday, highs between 15 and 19c only.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]More of a defined westerly Atlantic pattern to end the week, Friday promises a transient ridge of high pressure, a largely dry and bright day but none too warm, highs just 16 to 19c. This ridge is being followed hard on its heels by low pressure which moves into northern Britain on Saturday, and its fronts may spoil the end of Friday for West Wales. Low pressure over or close by throughout next weekend, and a cool air mass, showers or longer spells of rain, with sunny intervals between times, highs probably in the 15 to 19c range, so very disappointing for late June, and by which time the days will have started to get shorter! [/size][/font]
  23. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Fairly dry and bright, cool at first then quite warm from mid week[/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Some dry, bright and warm weather early last week, 25c at Rugby on Wednesday, their warmest day of the year to date. Then some rain and showers about, with thundery showers over Birmingham and Wolverhampton on Thursday evening. However, overall quite small amounts of rain during the past week, just 5mm having fallen at Llanwnnen and 10mm at Coventry. Much cooler and windy this weekend but things set to improve once more, and another reasonably dry week to come - June is turning out fairly dry if on the cool side.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Sunday afternoon continues chilly with plenty of cloud and occasional, mostly light showers, with some areas again escaping these, lucky to better 60f (16c) anywhere, very cool. The blustery NW wind moderates overnight as the low currently over Scotland moves into the North Sea, becoming dry with clear spells, minima 7 to 9c. Monday looks a mainly dry day with a ridge moving into the west, a few showers are possible more especially over the Midlands but most places missng them. Sunny intervals on Monday, but a cool NW breeze and highs only 15 to 17c. Clear periods and a chilly Monday night, lows of 5c in places inland. High pressure builds more decisively from the SW during Tuesday although perhaps not enough to prevent a scattering of showers to develop, as there will be cool upper atmosphere pool encouraging them, again though many places will miss these showers altogether. Quite cool in spite of sunny spells maxima 17 to 19c, and with another chilly clear night to follow, a local grass frost not out of the question, as air temperatures get down to 4c in favoured cold hollows. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]High pressure close to Ireland on Wednesday and the upper atmosphere is starting to warm up, so dry and largely sunny on Wednesday, temperatures reaching the late June average of 19 to 21c, a very pleasant day as winds will be light, although cooler for Cardigan Bay coasts with an onshore breeze. Thursday too is influenced by high pressure close to our SW, so generally dry again with sunny spells, however weak fronts coming around the top of the high off the Atlantic could bring more in the way of cloud and perhaps a little rain for a time, more especially for North Wales and the Midlands. Rather warm where there is decent sunshine up to about 21c, but cool where damp, just 16c for Snowdonia perhaps. Much milder on Thursday night no lower than 12c. High pressure leaks away SW somewhat during Friday, the high perhaps not quite close enough to keep it completely dry with more cloud. We could well be within a sector of warm, humid but inherently moist air on Friday, so always more likely to stay cloudy along western coasts, even with a little drizzle in places, however inland, and more especially for the Midlands, warm and sultry sunny spells with temperatures as high as 23c, and this could set off a few sharp afternoon showers here. A mild and somewhat sticky night follows no lower than 13c. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Next weekend, and we still have the same area of high pressure to the SW of Ireland, with a mild, moist and rather humid Atlantic west to NW airstream flowing about it across the UK. Western coasts always more prone to low cloud, sea mist and a little drizzle at times disappointingly, whereas inland, and especially the Midlands seeing some warm sunny breaks, although even here it may well cloud over at times. Mild nights next weekend, and by day maxima only 17c for stretches of coast that remain misty and damp, 21c for inland West Wales where it should brighten at times, then up to 25c locally for the Midlands where some decent sunny spells should break through. So not a bad weekend, and no washout for events taking place such as Glastonbury![/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3][attachment=175613:PPVG89 cool m dry mon R.png][attachment=175614:PPVJ89 R but few showers Tue.png][attachment=175615:ecmt850.072 Tue m dry r cool.png][attachment=175618:ukmintemp very local GF Wed am.png][/size][/font][attachment=175636:h850t850eu pleasant dry sunny ave Wed.png][font=arial][size=3][attachment=175617:PPVL89 nice Wed warmer.png][attachment=175619:ecmt850.120 m dry THu.png][attachment=175620:PPVO89 Thu m dry but wk front.png][attachment=175621:metslp.120 H slips SW m dry r warm.png][attachment=175622:ecmt850.144 WS FRi cloudier warm.png][attachment=175628:ecmt850.168 wend m dry warm eso inland.png][attachment=175631:h850t850eu weekend H close by humid westerly.png][attachment=175632:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=175633:mgram_Cardiff.png][/size][/font]
  24. TonyH
    [font=arial][size=3][b]Headline: Dry, very warm and sunny!![/b][/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Another largely dry week has passed, a mere 2mm falling at Rugby and Coventry, and just 5mm here, and we are at last entering a prolonged warm/ hot and sunny spell during 'High Summer', the first time since 2006! A few fly in the ointments as always (it's rarely the case that the whole UK is blessed with warm and sunny conditions at the same time!), as low cloud and mist affected parts of Wales on Saturday, at least during the morning, and with an onshore breeze crossing chilly waters(14c), places such as Aberporth and Aberdaron only managed a high of 16c, while the sunny Midlands was getting readings close to 80f (26c) With high pressure remaining over or close to the UK throughout the coming week and even next weekend it looks like a dry, very warm (hot sometimes even) and sunny week! Almost unbroken sunshine in places over the coming 7 days with temperatures well into the 20's, no doubt we will start to hear complaints that "it's too hot"! The coasts are the place to be this week. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]With a large slow moving high pressure over or close by the UK all week my job has been made a lot easier in producing this guide, that is similar weather for the whole week, and few if any of the difficulties of predicting when and where rain will occurr! The only real uncertainty will be "how warm will it get each day?" High pressure today is centred over Ireland, and as we can see/feel the heat is building on Sunday morning, even for West Wales, where incidentally it was a lovely cool night down to 5c in this spot. [/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Recent 11am temperatures:[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Our back garden, Llanwnnen: 23c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Milford Haven, Pembs: 22c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Rugby, Warwickshire: 24c[/size][/font]
    [font=arial][size=3]Birmingham: 24c[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]A sunny and very warm afternoon ahead for most, although again with the odd fly in the ointment. The first 80f readings for the Midlands of Summer to look forward to, maxima 27 or 28c here, while inland West Wales manages 25c. Coasts complicated by the fact that low cloud/ sea mist will affect some beaches from time to time, and where this happens highs kept below 20c, there will also be refereshing sea breezes along the Welsh coasts, although Carmarthenshire, Gower and south Pembrokeshire coasts should be warm and sunny with less chance of mist spoiling things, up to 23c locally - at Pembrey for example. A largely clear night to follow, a comfortable 10c for the countryside but a sticky 14c for cities and coastal SW Wales. An absolutely cracking sunny and very warm day on Monday, high pressure drifting across northern Britain, and with a gentle easterly flow, even coastal West Wales seeing the heat and virtually unbroken sunshine. Hotter than Sunday for West Wales we may touch 80f (27c), and 25 to 27c for the Midlands too. Clear skies on Monday night and it should be refreshingly cool for all, temperatures down to 8 to 12c. Rinse and repeat on Tuesday, high pressure meandering around western Britain, more virtually unbroken sunshine and warmth, highs generally 24 to 27c, and again refreshing sea breezes for coasts where 21c will be nearer the mark.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]Wednesday to Friday sees little change as high pressure remains over or close to NW UK, more sunny and warm weather, the only debate being just how warm? GFS model is suggesting a breeze off the North Sea which would cool things down for the Midlands at least, low 20's maxima if so; ECM on the other hand positions the high such that things are still likely to be pushing 80f for the remainder of the week! Suffice to say, plenty of strong warm sunshine to see out the working week, highs somewhere in the 20's C (70's to perhaps low 80's F), it is not likely however, that the 30c (true heat) barrier will be breached in the coming week apart from in the London area. It may not feel it after the long sunny days, but nights cooling off nicely, we are not likely to be suffering warm, humid nights above 16c (60f), more likely getting down to 8 to 10c in rural areas and 12 to 14c for cities and coasts. A few places may catch an isolated shower on Wednesday or Thursday but the vast majority will miss these, so barely warrants a mention.[/size][/font]

    [font=arial][size=3]And even into next weekend high pressure is close enough to keep things generally dry and warm, Saturday perhaps a hot one! We may be starting to see the weather breaking down with some rain or showers by Sunday, but this is as they say "a long way off" and the reality could be the warmth and sunshine decides to hold sway even into the week that follows?[/size][/font]
    [attachment=176960:PPVE89 H Scot sunny very warm or hot.png][attachment=176962:h850t850eu sunny quite hot.png][attachment=176961:PPVJ89 H Ire v warm sunny.png][attachment=176964:ecmt850.072 v warm sunny mid week.png][attachment=176966:h850t850eu warm sunny perhaps less warm.png][attachment=176963:PPVO89 continues v warm sunny.png][attachment=176965:metslp.120 on and on Fri.png][attachment=176967:ecmt850.168 warm sunny next weekend.png][attachment=176968:mgram_Birmingham.png][attachment=176969:mgram_Cardiff.png][attachment=176970:prcpWarwickshire m dry week ahead.png][attachment=176971:t2mSir~Gaerfyrddin~-~Carmarthenshire warm week WW.png]
  25. TonyH
    [b]Headline: Cooler with rain or showers at times; brief hot interlude Thursday to Friday; weekend very uncertain[/b]

    Our heatwave came to an end last week, spectacularly for parts of the Midlands with thunderstorms, Nottingham getting almost 3 inches rain in 24 hours between Monday evening and Tuesday evening, from a succession of thunderstorms causing severe flooding in the city and environs. Monday was the last really hot day, reaching 31c across Warwickshire and 25 to 28c for much of Wales. The rain held off for us in West Wales, where it was not until Wednesday night that some rain fell and then just 3mm at Llanwnnen, barely enough to settle the dust. Although cooler it was still a warm week for all places, and even by Saturday temperatures were reaching 22 to 26c widely. More heavy rain and thunderstorms for the Midlands on Saturday evening, over half an inch in just 30 minutes causing flooding in places such as Coventry, the total rain for the 24 hours to 10am this morning being 31.1mm at Bablake School, Coventry and 24mm fell at Rugby, no doubt some places received a lot more than these spot figures, such was the localised flooding. Mid and North Wales also saw a decent fall of rain overnight, properly ending the 4 weeks of mostly dry weather throughout July to date, and even SW Wales has not been spared with heavy showers on Sunday morning.

    The week ahead looks decidedly unsettled, but not cool as winds will generally be between west and south and even the seas are relatively warm after the recent heatwave by now. A warm but at times wet week then sums it up, with another, albeit most likely brief hot spell later in the week. With a complex of low pressures over or close to the British Isles Sunday sees some heavy downpours knocking about, most places getting at least a couple through the day, and more for Wales where thunder and even hail is a possibility. Still fairly warm highs between 20 and 23c, with gentle breezes. Showers dying out over the Midlands tonight, but some continue to affect parts of West Wales, where you may even see flashes of lightning should you look hard enough. Low pressure centred to our north on Monday and with high pressure well away over the south of France, nothing to prevent showers or longer spells of rain, heavy in places. With winds more SW even west and quite fresh, a touch cooler on Monday highs 19c for West Wales coasts and 22c for the Midlands, although there will be sunny intervals. Again, most showers die out to leave a generally dry Monday night. Unsettled again on Tuesday with the complication of a wave low zipping across the south as we go through the day. A dry start for most places, especially the Midlands, but then a spell of wet weather likely to affect at least South Wales and the South Midlands. Impossible to predict at this stage exactly how far north this feature will track but it may be that more of us experience rather a wet day than is presently suggested in the models. Assuming cloud and rain , then Tuesday may well be the coolest day for several weeks, highs between 18 and 20c, along with a fresh SW wind, although it would only take a few sunny breaks for temperatures to get higher, as the air will be inherently warm. A mild, rather sticky night follows.

    Wednesday, and the next low pressure is moving in off the Atlantic towards Ireland, this dragging up warm, humid air over Wales and England. Unfortunately for West Wales too much cloud and even rain at times on Wednesday for this warmth to be realised, highs below 20c here with hill and sea fog also likely. However, it should brighten in the afternoon for the Midlands with a humid 24c quite possible, although even here a little rain could occur at times. This low then drags up a plume of heat from Spain during Thursday, which after a warm night above 15c, sees strong sunshine developing for many areas. Always the chance of more could and perhaps some showery rain for West Wales, but quite a hot day, maxima at least 25c for West Wales and perhaps touching 30c for parts of the Midlands. One potential spoiler here is if the low is centred more over Ireland than slightly to its west, then West Wales may get a more cloudy and possibly damp day than expected, but lets be positive and go for a very warm day with sunny spells even here! The Midlands more or less guaranteed a hot and sunny Thursday! The heat and humidity may set off a scattering of thunderstorms during Thursday evening but many places missing these. Another warm, uncomfortable night to follow, no lower than 18c or so for some coasts and cities. Friday is a 'will the heat hang on' kind of day, as cooler, fresher air to the west starts to move in, although a chance it hangs on right through to the weekend for SE England according to ECM model? My hunch is another very warm/ quite hot day with sunny spells on Friday, with again the risk that some heavy showers and thunderstorms break out in places. Highs somewhere in the 23c to 29c range on Friday, least warm for coastal West Wales, where the fresher conditions should eventually spread in.

    As often the case, differing model signals for the next weekend, some have been indicating high pressure settling down but we will have lost the heat, so this would mean a pleasant and fairly dry weekend, and more especially Sunday, with sunny spells and temperatures in the low to mid 20s C. ECM however is this morning showing a nasty, thundery low crossing the UK during next Saturday night having formed over hot Spain, this scenario would bring more thunderstorms, heavy rain and localised flooding over next weekend! Benign or stormy we shall see?
×
×
  • Create New...