Selliso

Agree that ppn might extend into our neck of the woods, but the warning is rightly adjusted south as an indicator of where the core of ppn now appears most likely to be and therefore highest risk of accumulating snow and distruption.

Much further south - as expected with model outputs

Warning out for Saturday

Grew up in Bury / Bolton in the 90s and hated being referred to as a Mancunian - definitely a Lancashire lad.

Yes, said he’s “keeping his beady eye on it” shortly after quipping “Storm Christoph has gone on holiday to Norway.” Full of bants tonight!

I seem to remember these events were more prevalent in the 90s (growing up in North West, near Bolton) I can remember several rain to snow events during High School days and the ensuing school closure and bus chaos - probably 4 events between 91 - 97, with back edge snow from systems moving south east over the region. Seemed to stop happening after that - every event became a front edge, with mixing from the Irish sea meaning nothing but cold rain anywhere west of higher parts of Rochdale, while Huddersfield would get a pasting! Found this scenario similar to those 90s event, albeit with an exceptionally sharp temperature gradient and possibly the fastest rain to snow transition I've ever witnessed.

Transition here seemed to take no more than 15 minutes from the first signs of sleet

Snowing in Loggerheads - covering readily on all surfaces

Increasing snow shown on the local forecast for overnight period

And here's the Rain warning update Reason for update Warning end time shortened to 0600 Thursday and the area adjusted slightly, particularly by removing Norfolk. Mention of possible snow as rain clears. Storm Christoph will continue to bring heavy rain across the region through the rest of today and into Thursday morning. An additional 20-30 mm is expected to fall widely with 50-60 mm further rainfall over parts of Wales and northern England. Rain may temporarily turn to heavy, wet snow as it clears, leading to a cover of 1-4 cm in places, possibly more on high ground. Strong winds will accompany the rain at times and may add to travel difficulties across higher and more exposed routes.

I agree with this - it's an assessment of risk. You can look at the grids they provide to determine how likely they think any given situation actually is. Just an opinion, but although weather is a system with patterns and trends, it's ultimately a case of super complex computers trying to model chaos, with human intervention to add art to the science and make it relevant for a human audience. The warnings can never be read to say, for example, "there will be exactly 2" of snow in exactly your back yard at exactly 4pm next Friday" - they essentially say "somewhere within this area, it might snow - be aware" with caveats usually on distance from coast, elevation and if ppn is expected to be patchy etc. etc. etc. etc. It's just unrealistic to expect a warning area to be gospel. Sometime lower risk events never materialise at all, sometimes the risk is undermodelled and we get surprises.

Apparently to do with his view that Greenland HP evolutions were not possible - quite vehement. Followed the next day by model outputs showing Greenland HP - lots of toy throwing ensued.

I have no opinion on Mr Murr, but I do also remember Atlantic 252!

Bizarre changes on my meto forecast today (automated, I know) we’ve had sleet appear for tomorrow pm, then show as rain again. Since late afternoon it’s increasingly shown snow. Just now, it’s forecasting 4 hours of heavy snow from 11am, then light snow to 7pm. Has the modelling shifted that much??

Light to moderate snow now falling in Loggerheads, covering readily on all surfaces

Moderate snow in loggerheads with a good covering, perhaps a quarter of an inch so far. Met office tell me it’s currently raining...

A1M is becoming a bit of a mess at the A66 junction!

Looks like it's starting now - clearer on Blitzortung as the red & orange colours in Netweather blend in with the ppn on radar!

I know of one Dr Surgery that was closed due to a suspected case. It turned out to be a false alarm, but they still spend 48 hours deep cleaning the place. Back open now.

I can tell you in my village, people are taking on the challenge to support their friends and neighbours. Using social media to begin organising the local support network... I would imagine the same is being repeated in other communities. I'm not sure that the State can provide in this instance, it'll be busy trying to keep the wheels on the NHS.

True, but expressed as cases per million, it is now 11.5 times higher than the UK.

Think rather than the CMO, it's one of the heads of the medical service in one of the affected provinces. This from BBC: "Italian medical chief dies after contracting virus The head of the medical association in the northern Italian province of Varese, Roberto Stella, 67, has died of respiratory failure after contracting coronavirus. He had been practising medicine at an outpatient clinic in Busto Arsizio, north-west of Milan, and Italian reports say he and a colleague were infected at the weekend. Varese is in the Lombardy region, which has been at the centre of Italy's coronavirus outbreak."

The WHO have said they no longer use the term pandemic. I'm not au fait with the rationale. But this is how they defined a pandemic in 2010 in relation to Swine Flu. WHO | What is a pandemic? WWW.WHO.INT

This was posted on Twitter half an hour ago, showing Italian cases by region - it's definitely more widespread than just the northern regions - but you can see how significant the outbreak is in the top three northern regions.

Coronavirus: advice for employers and employees | Acas WWW.ACAS.ORG.UK Advice for employers and employees worried about coronavirus (COVID-19) in the UK. I think it's quite a bit less clear if you don't actually have the virus...