Selliso

Ah, thanks for posting - makes some sense of this meteorological madness!

Astonishing how this area of ppn just keeps reinforcing... Anyone knowledgeable explain how this is happening?

I agree, there will probably be a small amber warning area created later this morning, once they've been able to observe the behaviour of the ppn and conversion to snow. The models do not give sufficient clarity alone - only observations will count (also known as nowcasting!) Could be that ppn will be long lasting, giving decent totals, but if it falls slowly and steadily over a long timeframe, the actual impact on transport etc. is very much reduced. So might just stay yellow.

Great stuff! What's the northern extent on the super high res?

Wonder how long until an amber warning... The patchy nature of the ppn must be giving them a real headache. It could be a big win for some, bust for others despite conditions being favourable well down into the valleys, and almost to the coast! Not much for the North on Thursday, but we've done quite well from showers over the last 12 hours up near Conwy.

The cold shoulder, perhaps.

Sorry, sounds like I missed this completely! I've seen features like this zip down the west coast of Scotland before, sometimes they die out, sometimes the re-intensify over the Irish Sea. I would keep an eye on it.

I'm interested in this feature that has developed just off the Hebrides... looks like shower activity is beginning to show some signs of rotation. I haven't noticed this on the models previously... (may have just missed it) Will be watching its development and trajectory over the next hour or so.

Ah, yes looks like it. Was this modelled and I've just missed it?

Is there a little low forming just off the Hebrides? Looks like circulation on the radar...?

Fax had the occlusion over the Isle of Man by around 6pm, so would expect to see the activity increase very soon...

Looks like it's turned to wet snow now in Swindon

I'd definitely keep your eyes peeled from c. 5pm onwards, with occlusion incoming from the North West. Will pep up any shower activity you see this afternoon.

Definitely settled snow around 150m-200m in Conwy valley. Lower stuff is melting, but modest altitude is very white. Temperature drop was marked. Very interested in the shower activity to come this evening - will provide more interest at lower levels.

Is there a view of this for north wales too? Conwy valley?

Yup. And only then with elevation, c. 300m > so hill snow by definition. Intensity unlikely to drive that much lower, although heaviest might allow temp accum to 200m?

I remember the pain! WNW can do it, but often marginal off Irish Sea. NW and showers break up on West Pennine Moors, NNW filters down the Cheshire gap into Shropshire! Fingers crossed you get your Beasterly.

Seems like that has trended in the right direction in the last few model runs... One to watch!

How long has it been since there was a proper wintry North Westerly? I can't remember... But great to see the Cheshire Gap in full swing. And lots of interest over NI for N Wales, Cheshire, Greater Manchester... will it peter out or will it re-intensify over a relatively mild Irish Sea?

Yes, high is concern there... or are we just dismissing this as the GFS not having a handle on the situation? Colder yes. Some wintriness, yes. Persistent or deep UK cold... no.

Sliders for dinner, anyone?

Yes... although there is a reality from this kind of "stau-effect" feature in Austria. The town I lived in several years ago has been almost inaccessible for a nearly a week, with the area declared a disaster zone. 9 feet of snow is putting structures under considerable stress, and they are enduring the highest possible avalanche warning level. Hopefully the army will be able to reach the valley with support flights tomorrow as the weather clears - then another round of heavy snow over the weekend. I really do want the cold and snow as much as anyone else here, but I wouldn't call the current situation in parts of Austria a "picture postcard."

Well, the Para has me under -10-ish uppers from about 23rd Jan! We'll ignore pet 13, which is clearly wrong.... Starting to allow myself to feel more positive now about a colder phase of the winter... Don't need Roy Castle or Cheryl Baker on hand just in case it's a record breaker - some decent cold and snowy shots will do for me!

Omega?

I note that there seems to be a little less scatter in the gfs over the next few days, vs runs from a couple of weeks ago. Good to see. Something colder trending as well, perhaps? Although FI remains FI...