Selliso

Well, I have total confidence in this from the GFS. Totally convinced. And only 340 hours away. Please......

Try this: https://www.seatemperature.org/europe/united-kingdom/ Observed temps appear c. 1.5 degrees above average e.g. Llandudno Jan average 7.4, current 8.9

Not a huge amount of change comparing outputs from the last week or so. A slight colder trend in the 850 temp output, perhaps? A slight delay in the snow risk signal, although a stronger signal for risk from 9th Jan now... Reasons to remain cheerful, I would suggest, although we may need to be patient until February... I wonder if this is starting to take on the shape of several winters I remember in the 1990s, with northwesterly/northerly shots bringing significant cooling. Some memorable rain-to-snow events and battleground frontal snow that I remember. I certainly remember Christmas Day in t-shirts then too! And Back to School in Jan or Feb with school closing early and buses not running. Answers on a postcard.

I now find my joke post from December less amusing!

Hopefully you were there yesterday and able to take advantage of the clear blue skies and glorious sunshine!

Comparing trends from 31/12 to today's run. Weak snow signal has inched closer. The Parallel at 850 drops like a stone from 10/1. The scatter and noise seems very high, even in a short time frame (4/5 days away) Fascinating to once again see the models struggle to reconcile against the SSW impacts. Always seems to be the same! Liam Dutton's explanation made sense to my layman's brain - the models are clearly able to model and understand SSW impacts, but the issue is that the SSW impacts are also a forecast! So it's a forecast based on a forecast... like averaging an average, you can end up wide of the mark. Still seems to be on track for cold, even if the exact date remains just out of reach for now. 31st: 2nd Jan:

Only c.900m elevation too, so doing well already! A little on the cool side for Greece at T96

Very nice, same profile in my location, although it seems to sniff out a slightly higher snow risk...

Well, I can't really add anything, but will put up some colourful pictures. Hopefully, you'll find them interesting! In the short term, looking at ICON there is a beautiful Foehn effect in evidence on Monday across eastern Scotland And come 2nd Jan, there is a glancing blow with the -6 isotherm over Lincolnshire coast, East Anglia - and a general cooling trend. I won't show the chart with -25 isotherm extending past us into central Europe! I image dangerously cold temps over the Austrian Alps, exactly as Carintian alluded to a couple of days ago. In the medium term, the GEM seems to pick up a different evolution to the others - with a colder 850 temp profile across the Atlantic and the UK from 7th Jan. Of some concern is the -40 @ 850 growing and heading south over Hudson Bay, which would likely light the touch paper for the jet. There really isn't much else to get excited about, just for now... But while this is still happening... I live in hope of a snowy salvation in the second half of Jan and into February.

What a strange looking chart... is this indicating fog / inversion perhaps?

We're not seeing the "usual" type of response down into the trop of recent years, that's for sure... Loving the model watching, though. I want the cold as much as the next person, but the model conflict is half the fun! I am still 100% on the fence, and probably will be until 1st Jan.

Great article! Thanks for posting.

Interesting article on recent SSWs. Fascinating model watching over the next few days, as we enter what will no doubt be a nail-biter of "will it or won't it" on the PV split, the down-welling potential and the subsequent trop response. So many moving parts that have to fall into place to bring cold to the UK. Will it or won't it!?!? https://simonleewx.com/2018/12/27/not-all-ssws-were-created-equal/amp/?__twitter_impression=true

Ah great, thanks!

I read lots of these posts, and try to learn some of the technical terminology, developing my understanding as I go.... But what on earth is a Solar Sausage?!?

Fog just burning away here now, fingers crossed for some opalescent action!

Very little change in wording from the last couple of days...

Eyes peeled at sunset for nacreous clouds?

How so? Is it related to Foehn effect?

Agree, there is a lot of interest in background signals this year (many of which I certainly don't understand - but others seem to!) SSW with two thirds of the winter still to go should give any snow lovers a reason to be cheerful! Nothing is guaranteed, of course. Mid to late Jan is where I'd put my money. SSW around 30th Dec, with trop impact 7-14 days later. Cold air sourced from the east or north east, with several attempts at Atlantic incursion could be very interesting for parts of Wales. Here in Trefriw, we actually did very nicely with the Beast in March, seeing over 6" of snow during the spell, and all from an easterly source - I was very surprised!

A lot happening with the model output over the last few days. I bow to the superior knowledge of others... but it looks like they are flip flopping to me: GFS: ECM: Meto:

I remember this - rain to snow event in south Lancashire, resulted in c. 3" of wet snow before it melted overnight. It just started to sleet as I was leaving school for the day, and was a snowfest by the time I got home.

Temp around 20 degrees in Trefriw, North Wales. First hint of cloud...

4” on the ground in Trefriw / Llanrwst. We are outside the warning area, so only expected a dusting at best. And it’s still snowing!

I’m obsessively watching the progress of the frontal wave over EA - seeing the ppn intensify northwards of Norwich is giving me hope of a good dusting here in the Conwy valley. Is it pivoting?