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KDME

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    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

    Not at all I'm just writing what I have seen as of the latest chart trend for precipitation next week. As you all seem obsessed with the meto saying 'significant snow next week' I'm just wondering if any of you can show us all a precipitation chart trend that indicates a major snow event for us? The answer is there isn't one at this stage. I'm not saying there won't be one - the possibility is there, but we need to exercise caution. There's as much chance for us getting a mostly dry, sunny, cold icy week next week (with the odd sprinkling) as there is a significant snow event. 

    Think you have made your point - Matty88 vs UK Met Office
    Only time will tell who has the better insight.

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

    Afternoon Guys:

    So as of 06z today these are the following notables for our region & timelines

    90% confidence now

    Sat- Winds direct SE flow - dewpoints dropping as the day progresses circa -5c peak temps AM ~4c -afternoon temps pegging back early maybe 2c- maybe the outside chance of a flurry ( low )

    Sun through the day- Winds backing more Easterly 

    Approximate -10c isotherm times ( ahead of GFS ) 2pm Norfolk / East kent - 6pm London - Midnight to the shires

    Spread is about 6 to 12 hours ( mainly slower not faster ) - UKMO raw the fastest with the fastest flow -

    Sunday Eve Snow ?

    This depends on final allignement & because its still 5 days away its still around     60% confidence 

    However late eve - Benchmark maybe 8pm Snow showers will start pecking away at EA & Kent - Allignment at this stage is favoured 60% Thames streamer & Essex / Suffolk + London / shires later - 35% Mid kent streamer 5% East kent only - 

    EA also included in slow 

    *** Remember for widespread snow Thames flow is the best ***

    By Monday the consensus is that there should be a window of 24 -36 hours where we peak on shower activity Spreading across the region

    Conservative totals ( you have to put zero just incase ) 0-10cm - Up to 20cm in the peak shower zones.

    **REMEMBER THIS IS ONLY DAY 1**

    Post this things become more & more interesting - There may be a lull across weds ( with deep frost weds ) however attention turns to activity over Scandi as a wave moves west from Siberia -

    The images below show the cold, but more impressive is the cold attached circa -28c ( follow the kink )

    81D10A9E-7F0D-4E15-AA72-75A2CBD5D051.thumb.png.c5c5ed840825cc3de2685f6951e191c8.pngA35836E3-4B01-459B-AE60-C38134E9FF6D.thumb.png.ec6e677ccd21289d412621b10727b066.png

    This kink & wave has a wide cone of where it could go - ( Think hurricane track & cone ) but at the moment the UK is at the centre point of the track in the mean Ensembles -

    GEFS is a bullseye

    346ED5C1-F827-4BCA-82DC-F4C4288BE05E.thumb.png.aa22406e0ed77e74c384ac090ba153f2.png

    This brings the chance of even more substantial snow & probably the peak of the cold - Thurs 

    Estimates -15/16 air ( with an outside chance of -18c )

    EBC01F89-754D-4AE4-BCB7-43176656C655.thumb.png.eb31b12b4f85c4f1940547772eec1186.png5D630CAD-19BE-4A8C-87B9-E8641A677E65.thumb.png.83cfd48e811f2ae5cac9074b26e64cf1.png

    A real deep snow maker-

    If not, still lots of snow around / troughs etc-

    This would be my guesses at this stage which to be fair are pretty much just for fun ( all be it with a hint of reality )

    London 2-4 inches

    West of London 0-6inches depending on shower spread-

    Essex / Kent - Suffolk / EA 3-18 Inches - again dependent on flow allignment.

    Duration of cold ( starting Sat ) 7-14 days( 

    S

     

     

     

    Running a small shop - sounds like I may have some impromptu days off work from this.  It will be the first time in 6 years that I have been in business ... Lets see

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, Surrey said:

    Same old people moaning in the mod thread and not very educated on reading models it would seem. 

    Stella runs again this afternoon for cold, albeit the north stays a little bit drier.. 

    The best winter weather in years starting from tomorrow and people are moaning lol! Yes that's correct, the colder weather sets in tomorrow and we steadily get colder.. 

    Phew!  I thought I had jinxed it all by placing an order for a bag of gritting salt ...:unknw:

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted · Edited by Weather_Novice

    10 minutes ago, throwoff said:

    In addition a friend of mine whose wife works for the 999 call centre round here has told him they have asked any 4x4 drivers who are confident to drive in snow to make themselves known in preparation for next week when they may need them to bring staff in. 

    Things like this always make me feel confident in something coming, industry and services don't start activating their contingency plans unless they clearly believe something is in the offing.

    There must be confidence there for the emergency services to prepare their contingency plans.  Many of us are getting very excited with the prospect of some freezing weather.  Must be absolute hell for hospitals, ambulance and Paramedic crews!  Trying to get to someone who is in trouble on snow laden roads. 

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    14 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

    Depends what you want, if you're after cold weather then we're looking quite likely to see it - if you're basing it on Snow then it could go either way and no one will really know until the latter end of this week

    Lets face it, it there is no snow or that transient rubbish from this evolution, there could well be a riot on the streets.  I feel there are quite a few expectant folk on here ...

    • Like 1

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    49 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

    I missed jan 87 because i was abroad but my family told me about it, my mother walked to work knee deep in it.

    Lived in Southend-on-Sea at the time. It just seemed to ? for days on end during that exceptional snowy spell. We lived in a close and everyone came out to dig trenches through the snow so that we could access the main road. Snow cleared from the roads produced walls of the stuff. Massive icicles as thick as an arm that reached from gutter to ground.

    A truly extraordinary snow event, which I doubt I will see again in my lifetime.

    • Like 3

    SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards

    in Regional

    Posted

    15 hours ago, Paul Sherman said:

    Just checking in to see if we are getting closer - Stats below make grim reading

    Feb 4th the arrival of the snow was touted on here by Jaffacake to be around the 15th Feb so at Days 10-12

    Feb 9th the arrival was pushed forward a bit to Days 7-9

    Feb 12th the arrival was pushed back to days 9-11

    Feb 14th we athat we have been waiting for this "Easterly"re now looking at days 12-14 again

    Lets face it - It is not going to happen 

    Hoping we get some dry weather with High Pressure to dry things out and then warm up a bit as we get into the 2nd week of March.

    I was thinking that we have been waiting for this fabled easterly since the end of Jan!  You have summed it up perfectly.

    Some are really clutching at straws now ... If it does happen, it will be a squib - cold for a few days with the transient rain snow rubbish.  I want warmer weather - these nagging low temps are long in the tooth now.

    • Like 2
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