convector
-
Posts
150 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Forums
Blogs
Gallery
Events
Learn About Weather and Meteorology
Community guides
Posts posted by convector
-
-
struggling to see the potential tomorrow looking at the charts - shear looks good but not much in the way of instability or anything in terms of a trigger...
-
3
-
-
10 minutes ago, staplehurst said:
12z soundings from weather balloons launched at Nottingham and Herstmonceux highlight the subtle differences at play this afternoon between the heavy showers currently over the Chilterns / Oxfordshire vs Hampshire to Devon. I've modified both for typical surface temperatures and dewpoints present in the areas of interest, and both yield around 400-500 J/kg CAPE. However, Nottingham is much drier aloft and so this limits the depth of convection to around 18,000ft with cloud tops of -20C or so. Conversely, the profile ahead of the occlusion over central southern and SW England is moister with less mid-level inhibition, and so convection here can grow to 27,000ft or so with cloud tops potentially as low as -40C. Hence there has been sporadic lightning from the deeper convection over southern England, and so far none with the convection immediately behind the front currently over the Chilterns (started life over Beds/Herts at lunchtime).
Some modest 0-6km shear, around 25kts, over southern England too where convection is also being forced more strongly by confluence zone. Shower training/backbuilding over similar areas brings the risk of flash flooding given moist profiles and prolonged downpours.
how did you get access to real weather balloon data? i can usually only find forecast skew-t's
-
All set for a good chase if the weather stays favourable - another lincs / east anglia setup by the looks of it. Fuel prices below a pound right now so i'm down to travel far.
-
1
-
-
Does anyone know why storms happen less often now i.e. less plume events in the last decade or so? (or at least point me in the right direction to find out)
-
Why do our seasons suck so much now? The last five years have been awful for storms which leads me to believe there must be some long term processes at play - things like solar cycles (currently minimum), AMO phases (currently positive) and possibly even coal power stations closing down (water vapour from cooling towers could cause storm initiation). With my limited knowledge of meteorology i can only think that a lack of storms is due to lower instances of cut off lows and similar patterns which lead to moisture advection and heat from the south. High pressure seems more dominant now making summer a hot a dry affair. I wonder if anyone can shed some light on this.
-
i think people overestimate what it takes to form a supercell in this country...
-
2
-
-
52 minutes ago, Thunder and Lightning said:
This storm is even looking a bit supercellular.
does indeed look like a low topped supercell or at least something with mild rotation - you can see it in the lightning trail - the movement is more southerly than surrounding cells
-
Just now, Mitch perrott said:
I think it's just best for to go to sleep, don't think Kent is going to get any action tonight not seeing any potential anyway ;-;
Well that's a bad idea, i'd rather be in kent tonight than where i am...
-
1
-
-
Just now, Zak M said:
What's happening NW of London?
I was just thinking that - could be a nice surprise :0
-
1
-
-
First storms to reach landfall in the SW near plymouth
-
1
-
-
i don't remember a winter worse than this.. 2014/15 had some snowfall to low levels even with a rampant jet stream and training lows
-
1
-
-
Keep an ear out tonight if you're in the south - could see some thunderstorms tracking north off the channel.
-
Anyone chasing today? I'm thinking of heading up towards the wash and lincolnshire.
-
Was anyone chasing that supercell up north earlier? Really interested to see what structure that thing had - wouldn't be surprised if there was a funnel or brief tornado.
-
New area of development on this shortwave
-
5
-
-
Just now, ChezWeather said:
This cells is the one to watch for the far North, more active than the rest and has a huge purple core on radar, possibly indicating large hail.
Looks like a supercell. Strike rates 100/min and deviating right of the mean wind.
-
1
-
-
This all looks elevated still - everything is racing away north and not rooting to the boundary layer at all.
-
It's about to go bang in the far south east
-
1
-
-
Latest sounding from Larkhill shows the cap in place but with massive CAPE just waiting to be tapped into. Expecting destabilisation later this evening as the trough approaches from the west, but time will tell.
-
1
-
-
ACAS over Oxford
-
2
-
-
4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Choicely Services, on the M4. Stopped for a breather but heading as far as Swindon then having a mint tea or a pint and taking stock of Synoptics before deciding on the next move.
It is INCREDIBLY hot here. 32 maybe 33°?
Just being in the rays of the Sun is baking.
So the channel’s gone quiet but then again I was suspicious about things kicking off so early. Just shows how powerful and discrete some of these early storms could be tonight, also quite slow moving compared to what some of the forecasts are saying.
OK too hot. Gonna keep moving...
looks like you're in a good spot. simulated IR from AROME has storms initiated just before midnight along the south cost heading north along the A34 and around convergence in the bristol channel.
-
4 minutes ago, samadamsuk said:
Hey all - just about to take off from Bergamo Italy, into Bristol at 8.15pm. I stopped my trip 2 days early so I didn't miss a thundery UK heatwave, but hate flying at the best of times so please all pray that Bristol stays clear until after 8.15 PM- if it doesn't, startup a RIP about Sam page (purple swimming award, good to animals, moderately fast cyclist).
Good luck all!
funny that's where i expect storms to be popping off around that time today
-
3 hours ago, Another Kent clipper said:
The GB-wide line of cloud is forming a big smile. It is saying "hahaha, I'm not going to let thunderstorms form along me"
Edit: I'm going to stop posting for at least a day. I've become bored of my own comments
What is this line anyway? some kind of upper front or shortwave? There doesn't seem to be much convergence at the surface.
-
2
-
-
6 hours ago, Tim Bland said:
Meteo Group (using ECM I believe) picking up on something Thundery at the end of the week? ECM raw output agrees
could be under high pressure though
Storms and Convective discussion - 1st June 2020onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Arome 12z still calling for development late evening as temps cool off and dews rise slightly from the SE. (strange that the uk/ireland version doesnt have this though)