convector
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Posts posted by convector
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The storm over the channel has started to take on an interesting form. Is it possible for an MCS become a bow echo, or does it already fall under that category?
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Just now, VillagePlank said:
I'm going for this track, Harry
yeah, the thing with these is that it'll appear to be moving due north, but then make a right turn, clipping kent.
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That MCS over the channel looks rather impressive on radar - might be worth compiling a gif later.
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19 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:
The mythical M4 corridor storm generator! I say mythical because I believe the M40 generates them to travel northwards! Storms here are a rarity tbh. A couple of years can go by without one. I lived in Hertforshire as a child and storms were a far more regular occurance. I also see a lot more in London/
I can attest to this; haven't seen a good storm i didn't need to chase for since 2014/2015.
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51 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
Only one storm a year??
Well you're living in the right country for that
storm events in the uk up were far more frequent up until around 2013, if i recall correctly - at least in the last 10 years or so.
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surprised how little talk there is on the cells heading for cambridge. in hindsight, setting up there at the start of the day would've been a great call
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The amount of cumulus clouds have increased over the hour, as visible on satellite - so that's somewhat promising. Going by xc, it looks like convergence is establishing over the SE up through lincolnshire, where easterlies meet westerlies.
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6 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
You do know that that outcome is confirmed right!
If we look at the CAPE charts, there is no CAPE under that storm whatsoever, interesting to see as haven't seen this too often.
That's just a flaw in the netwx model. There is specifically no cape under the ppn, i assume, because it accounts for the change in atmospheric conditions, locally.
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anyone noticing the line of cumulus developing over northampshire?
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1 minute ago, chapmanslade said:
Right underneath that and impressive anvil developing although with a cloud base that high nothing rain wise will reach the ground. Looks like the cap is eroding now
surely if the cap was eroding we'd be seeing cumulus at much lower levels
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keeping an eye on that cell north of stoke-on-trent
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3 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:
I'm in North East Wales but they do look good. They seem to be decaying though as they come further inland? Maybe they are running out of juice?
probably being throttled by the cap
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looks like the caps broken in northern ireland
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Is it just me or are things looking more promising south of the main risk area. All that cloud/rain can't be good for insolation; though, there's still the problem of finding a trigger.
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2 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
??....I was referring to flash bang's comments about kissing goodbye in the south to anything convective this month, that is simply incorrect
ah, cool. my apologies. i wasn't aware you could be incorrect when clearly exaggerating.
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21 minutes ago, ajpoolshark said:
Sorry but this is just plain incorrect, with low pressure close by the UK (as progged over the coming days/week or two) there will be plenty of convective episodes , and no need for the language!......Didn't you have some cracking storms last month?...I'm sure I can remember you posting about them?
plain incorrect? storms initiating around and north of the peak district seems to be the general consensus among models at the moment.
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another day of chasing anoprops *sigh*
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16 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
July 19th (not sure what year) GFS forecasted in excess of 3500 J/kg with -12 Lifted Index, so with this sheer amount of energy available any storms that do develop could be pretty severe.
If you're referring to 2014, there was a impressive low-topped supercell that day which passed through oxfordshire. Unfortunately, i don't have the GFS charts for that day, but here's the sounding and radar (i have more photos too, if anyone's interested). If those CAPE/Li values really are accurate for tomorrow, i can only imagine the storms it could support.
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speck over birmingham lol
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It does look to be steering north now
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1 hour ago, Harry said:
Not convinced it was ever likely to be anything other than lots of rain to be honest. There was and is a slim chance of some thunder across the far SE but it's slim at very best.
Slim indeed, however, if that trough sticks around and the cold front pivots/stalls, it would certainly raise the possibility. The gfs has been ever so slightly increasing instability across the far SE over the last day or two, which is somewhat promising. Wouldn't be surprised if we see a (rather pathetic) kent clipper or, at least, some offshore lightning.
Can't wait to see some real setups - desperate to chase something (which is probably why i'm writing so much on an off chance). Although, saying that, things could get interesting over the weekend if the shear's good.
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5 minutes ago, Harry said:
Welcome to the forum!
Thanks for the warm welcome
Looks like things are about to get interesting - those cells to the SE are exploding!
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Banking on new development to the south now, since these cells along the convergence boundary still haven't got their act together. Satellite looks promising and observations from others in the group seem to confirm the possibility. NMM from this morning also agrees with this evolution, having the northern cells die out as new ones initiate in the south around 18z.
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![sounding_19thjuly_fairford[5pm].png](http://content-eu.invisioncic.com/d321955/monthly_2017_06/594930d99dc5c_sounding_19thjuly_fairford5pm.png.0dc312dfe37d8d4bb98b449d995ab8d1.png)
Looks like things are about to get interesting - those cells to the SE are exploding!
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted · Edited by convector
grammar
Until today, i wouldn't have even expected development until much later. Far too early to call it a bust for central/SE.