convector
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Posts posted by convector
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that patchy rain north of salisbury is starting to look interesting
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12 minutes ago, Robert Lewis said:
Considering that little storm shot up from France and tickled the South Coast, a good sign for some more activity later on?
i was thinking the same. CAPE modelled in the area of the showers is in the region of 300-500J/kg right now, increasing overnight. The metoffice had a shortwave running up through bournemouth, the midlands and northern england around midnight. Not sure if that's still the case now, but some of the short range models are supporting this. I'm waiting on the next fax update.
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25 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:
Warning is for tomorrow. No storms were ever forecast for today.
wow it's thursday? i've been thinking it was friday this whole time -_-
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I don't see anything happening today, with the dew points so low. none of the models appear to support of the weather warning either
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first of the day kicking off in the south west
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29 minutes ago, dusk said:
Well, that was an EPIC couple of hours!
Constant rolling thunder from 16:30 to 18:45, with some huge CG. My wife and I decided to head out in the car to find a good vantage point, and we ended up in Cosford. It was biblical there, and the main crossroads was under three feet of water. The scale, frequency, and sheer noise of the lightning and thunder was unbelievable.
Found myself in a similar situation when I tried to core punch a cell near Coventry. Ended up getting stuck in rugby; the rain there was intense with hail around marble size. Lots of flooding made it hard to find a route of town to keep chasing. As it stands, I'm watching this line of storms cycle from a vantage point nearby. Might drop south east or see what's on the other side.
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Currently heading west along the m4, stopped at membury services when it became clear I wasn't catching those cells near bath. Probably just going to wait until the next wave of storms arrive and go from there. These setups are always so troublesome.
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this weekend's looking interesting
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It's all just sitting around the convergence zone in high wycombe - i don't know how to chase this. Anyone know any viewpoints in the area?
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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:
The lightning radars aren't very good at detecting these are they? I presume a lot of cloud to cloud lightning?
it's probably because these storms are elevated
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1 minute ago, LightningLover said:
What does everyone think? Is it worth staying awake any longer, or should i get some kip? (I have to get up at 07:00 for school)
i wouldn't bother, there's plenty of better setups this week and the next
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Didn't see much today besides cloudscapes this evening. Looks like they'll be plenty of opportunities however, the 12z gfs keeps instability around for the entire rest of the month.
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Is it just me or does this cell to the SW look like a supercell?
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Arome and Netwx bring the storms further south on the 18z.
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7 minutes ago, Mapantz said:
It looks as though further North will stand the better chances of storms. Strong capping early tomorrow morning, but that get's eroded away by the late afternoon/early evening. Showers will push up from France, but CIN may well put pay to any storms down here, unless there's any other forcing mechanisms that will help?!
The metoffice has a shortwave across central England Saturday night - could be enough to kick off some elevated storms.
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The end of next week looks promising. High cape values thursday/friday on some models but will likely be anti-cyclonically capped until the weekend at least. GFS 6z was keeping warm air advection around into the week after, with low pressure closer to the UK, but the 12z is completely different of course. Too soon to tell right now, but at least 2018 storm season is finally within our sights
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Possibility of a kent clipper/channel storms monday night into tuesday, early hours. Only really showing up on the WRF and GFS, however. Other models don't seem to be very good at forecasting CAPE, at least in early spring. ICON, for example, doesn't show any CAPE for the times given but performs well when it comes to precipitation. I only have a few years of experience, so if anyone can explain why i'd be very interested. Anyway, next week looks promising in general, albeit marginal, but I'll take what i can get at this time of year.
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1 hour ago, Windblade said:
Absolutely 100 percent rotation there, as evidenced by your top two panoramic pics. Great shots.
Panorama's can be deceptive; there's no way to tell whether this is a supercell from those photos alone. It did, however, consistently produced lightning over a large linear distance between Leicester and Norwich, which implies the storm had a mesocyclone.
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The MCS looks epic on radar - wow! Hoping i'll see a little more with round 2, but even those don't seem on course.
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This thing is a beast! Surprised how little lighting it's putting out.
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The movement is really unpredictable on this thing, it's no wonder the models have a hard time. If only the general public could grasp this - tonight would be a great example of why storms aren't so easily forecast.
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That MCS is really wrapping up now, with main ppn bowing north - it's teasing me! Tempted to chase but i feel like it'll suddenly change course again.
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Just now, Frosty hollows said:
Between Newbury and Didcot. Either the East Ilsley or Chilton interchanges will take you to ridgeway views. It looks like the cell is pivoting and moving more N/NW to me (tho I might've been staring at the screen for too long)!
Thanks for the suggestions. Looking at the radar loop though, it seems to be heading more north at this point due to the rotation. I'm still not so sure, though - it's a tough one to call..
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anyone here know any good viewpoints along the a34?
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Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 1st June onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
yeah the lightning count for that night was huge - wish i could've been in bournemouth. still had a great view from oxford, even without taking a direct hit