Ice Man 85

Please tell me there's some hope for an improvement in temperatures! Not looking good from the det. runs!

best take a screenshot as its not often you'll see me wanting milder conditions. But I fully agree with you. Unfortunately as you likely already know, the models are trending colder. Should keep the baying mob happy. As for the elderly, my grandparents bedroom heater stopped working a few days before the really cold air arrived, despite phoning daily, the council are in no rush to fix it. Just imagine people who cannot heat their homes. I saw an elderly lady on tonight's news that relied on a charity for supplies and money for heating. Had that charity not been there, who knows what would happen. I absolutely deplore extremes at either side of the spectrum, both heat and cold. It does nobody any good bar those that like to get their jollies from weather porn.

Tell me about it. Those people are NUTS. Red warnings out now. RED! This weather is nothing to be welcomed. Its dangerous. As I feared, the ECM 0z was a huge outlier this morning and the GFS has been trending colder over the last few runs. Replies from others beggar belief. You can take every precaution in the world and its still not going to be enough. People WILL die before this is over. Some already have due to treacherous driving conditions. And the worst is yet to come. To think that some are "disappointed" with what's come out of this spell. Lets just hope nobody they care about needs an ambulance and the roads are impassable.

Wouldn't want to be a forecaster right now!

Am I right in thinking that this setup favours the east/south east of the country rather than the west?

Been seeing it all winter. From wrist slashing on one run to bactine on another.

you're all heart... Might as well be a winter pariah too then lol. Knocker could use the company.

Not for me, Frosty. Even I have my limits.

Stop and think people! The hospitals? Food? Animals? All would suffer once this pathetic country grinds to a halt. Hate me if you must, but I am starting to hope these runs get watered down to something more reasonable.

I don't want to sound like a wet blanket, but you guys need to stop and actually think about the ramifications of these synoptics on the countries infrastructure. Have you not been watching the news? Have you not seen the hospitals in crisis? Hate me if you must, but I am really hoping these extreme runs get watered down to avoid chaos.

just so many flip flops between runs. ECM is (if you'll excuse the pun) the polar opposite of this mornings run which (from what I could see) showed barely any cold uppers at all right through. Going from that to -16's is a bit extreme!

Welcome back, friend! Not sure what to make of it myself. Been on the fence so long I've got splinters in my backside!

The ECM 12z! Jesus Christ! If that verifies Sydney will have a heart attack! Still the usual caveats apply when viewing the MAD thread:

If thats how I came across then i apologise. Still when there was talk of a "prolonged" period, 4 days was just a let down for me. Anyway, I'll leave it there. Just letting everyone know that I don't want to cause trouble before this post inevitably disappears in the morning.

I'm just saying what I'm seeing. I'm not trying to "provoke" anyone. The GFS 18z OP ushers the cold away faster than what I'd like. I don't see how I'm trying to provoke anyone.

doesn't have as much support as the OP does though which is a shame. Not really a fan of "short and sweet".

Not at all, just not keen on the mild muck getting back in so quickly. Don't get me wrong, I'd relish the chance of snow if this damn country could cope with it. Anyway, back on topic; you wouldn't think such an apparently "strong" block could break down so fast. Just goes to show though that whatever the synoptics, the GFS is determined to go mild before its run ends.

Looking like a blink and you'll miss it event on the 18z to me. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

The MAD thread need to be careful what they wish for. 1cm of snow crippled the motorways not long back. If this comes off as projected, the country would be in pandemonium. Not to mention, the GFS is keen on shunting it away very quickly. I'd rather a prolonged, dry easterly but to each their own.

From all the elation in here tonight, I thought we had finally gotten closer to the Beast. Looking at the 12 and 18z GFS OPs, they are both at the colder end of the ensembles, BUT from my eyes there looks to be about a 50/50 split and the control runs are at the mild end of the suite. The means are also above the long term average for the majority of the run. Please tell me I'm missing something. Tell me I'm wrong lol. I don't see any reason to be positive tonight barring the improvement in the ECM which luckily is not an outlier and is very close to the mean. Once again, I see a standoff. GFS is still either saying no, or "I don't have a clue" in my untrained eyes.

Nah. We can get that without one no problem.

From my *very* limited understanding, those conditions are the result of the transition of where the high cell is going to end up. I don't have a clue either lol

Some of us (like me) are too dumb to make heads or tails of those charts. I wouldn't have a clue what wind direction/conditions would be showing just from looking at a pressure chart. We rely on people in there to give honest analysis of those charts. Sadly a lot of distortion from rampers is something we have to deal with.

Sounds good to me

I must be missing something. The ECM 12z looks milder to me. Most of the country in double digit temps this weekend. How is that an improvement?