Ice Man 85

well weather like that is common in the states and they have infrastructure set up to cope with it? what do we have?

When the bedroom heats up to 28c+ nothing will feel cool.

With a warm airflow? very useful.

Well it was looking pleasant until the 12z ruined it. What is so nice about struggling to sleep in 17c nights?

maybe there's some hope after all.

Is pleasant temps i.e 20-21 or so too much to ask? Why does it always have to be ruined? And people wonder why I prefer rain...

So what's your take on the temps from that?

Well we achieved nearly 30 in the south with only 10s. The 12z shows 850s in the 12-13 region for the far south east. It looks like a trough is trying to sink and drag up humid muck from the continent. If the temps I fear aren't whats being shown, then it could well end up feeling like them.

Remind me to gloat come the winter. I might bemoan what I don't like, but never rub salt in the wound when I see what I do.

Well if the ECM 12z verifies, any hope of this spell being pleasant is gone. mid-upper 20s easily. Sickening.

Thats not warm, thats hot. factor in the humidity and its hell. As I've said before; you are very lucky to find conditions like that enjoyable.

like I said, likely the ssw.

once its arrived you mean? defeats the definition of forecasting no?

well you need a reality check my friend. march was down to the ssw. and april has only recorded about 9 below average days all month. the CET coming out above average is testament to that. And as for wanting upper 20s right through til the autumn; I'm sorry to break it to you but this isn't the south of france.

Well when we have disagreement at 36 hours out for the rain/snow event tomorrow (the latter likely very unrealistic) then I think seaweed and the farmer's almanac would be more reliable than the models.

Well the OPs have been inconsistent but to say the ECM has been any better is false. I've been checking the EC ens twice daily and the variations have been massive. we've gone from a max of +6 850s to +10s right to day 10 now we have something closer to the GFS with +8s around the weekend dropping to +5s thereafter. Also the GFS has been showing the "warmest" period to be next sat/sun for a few days now. Here's the 12z ens. This mornings were higher than that. OP has also been all over the place. sometimes even a massive outlier. This chart also shows the peak to be roughly 48 hours or so, ala GFS.

Third GFS run on the bounce to turn it into a 2 day affair.

Hedging their bets is an understatement.

I've seen your long range forecasts and you definitely know your stuff. Is there any credence to a 10 day heatwave mid-may that some crap rags are already spurting out? The only source I can see is the weather channel and they claim it to be spurious

I'm glad someone said it.

The only way the south will see snow at this time of year will be if someone with a dirty scalp sits on your roof and scratches their head

Well you have to bear in mind that getting "real" cold in the UK is incredibly difficult (unless you live in scotland that is). Getting heat though is sadly a lot easier. There are people who chase above average temps right through the winter, just like there are those that chase the opposite in summer. Its not as one sided as you make it out to be.

No rain here today. Sunny, dry and with a lovely cool breeze. A perfect combination that is sadly far too hard to achieve this time of year.

because they don't have a clue. the top tech and minds in the business can't predict the uk weather more than a few days ahead. hell, every single forecast going got my weather wrong last saturday night; predicted a low of 12, and was still 17 at 3am.

Well that cites the weather channel as its "source". They've disputed anything like what those crap rags are spouting. average to slightly above at best. https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/2018-04-25-uk-weather-feeling-warmer-little-risk-new-heatwave