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Ice Man 85

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Posts posted by Ice Man 85

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    Suppose I'd better post something other than moaning before more of my posts are removed.

    Incidentally I have no idea where this site pulls its 7/10 day forecasts from since they're showing barely any difference between my area and london on some days. I'm no weather nut but that can't be right.

    Even the overcooking death machine that is the GEM isn't showing their highs.

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    13 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

    just for a punt, i reckon the next ridge after this weeks could be 'the one' that produces a lengthy hot spell. we are long overdue for a nationwide hot summer (and not just a hot spell like 2013). all the signals this far are suggesting this might be the year.

    im watching the next ridge on the anomaly charts, moving out of north america and heading our way. after the breakdown in about a weeks time or so (the noaa 6-10 dayer still suggests high pressure in control out to day 8 the middle of the period) , so i wouldnt be surprised if the breakdown was put back... but there should be a quieter spell with normal/average conditions before that high builds in by around the end of week 1 in july.

    Keep talking like that and the only thing that'll have a breakdown will be me.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    I wish the ECM charts were easier to read. One chart shows similar to the weekend temps around next thursday/friday before a cool down on the saturday. Another shows higher :cc_confused:

    Hopefully someone who can read them can give me some kind of temperature values for my location (Skelmersdale). I don't know about the weather but if anything's going to have a breakdown its me. :bomb:

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    5 hours ago, cheshire snow said:

    You are not alone,my limit for the UK that I can tolerate is around the 25c Mark anything above starts to go into the unbearable range,However I can sit on the beach in the Algarve in July at 35c and feel comfortable,providing I am creamed up and have my parasol to hand.

    C.S. 

    The end of May's 3rd week as bad enough. I am hoping to god it doesn't get that hot up my way again. So many contradictions on the weather websites. Even the current temperature varies. The only comfort I had in May was knowing it wouldn't last long. That damned ECM keeps pushing the breakdown further and further back. And the GEM...I don't want to talk about it :wallbash:

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    1 minute ago, knocker said:

    Well according to the ecm you may well get away with 20-22C Tuesday-Thurs with rain thrown in on Wednesday. But it will change in the next few days so I wouldn't start fretting just yet

    I wish that ECM model used simple to read numbers like the GFS does at least. I have no idea what Geopots and T850s are. 22 I can cope with. It was 24 here today apparently (every single weather site is different 20 on bbc to 26 on weatherunderground/weatherchannel) and that wasn't too bad.

    • Like 1

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    16 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Can't say I'm a heat fan, but don't want GFS correct here, suppose heat is a novelty, can understand people enjoying it, unlike rain in Nov to Mar, what's to like about that?

    Even I am not that mopey. I would take dry and sunny any day of the week. March/Apr was really nice; dry sunny but most of all: comfortable. The height of my tolerance ends at 23c. If the ECM comes off I will be looking for the nearest bridge to jump from I think. I truly envy people who enjoy the heat; they have it much better than those of us that tolerate the cold. If its cold, you have heaters, thicker clothing etc. If its too warm, you can strip to your scivvies and still be boiling. Fans don't cut it above 24 or so.

    • Like 1

    'Feels like' temperature calculation

    in Spring Weather Discussion

    Posted

    54 minutes ago, h2005__uk__ said:

    The WeatherPro app has a 'Feels Like' temperature and I was wondering what formula they use to calculate it.

    I've found various formulas online, including one used by the Calculus software, but they produce lower results compared to the WeatherPro one.

    For example, with a temp of 28C, wind speed of 12mph and humidity of 44%, WeatherPro has a 'feels like' temp of 31C, but the formulas I found come out at around 29C.

    Does anyone know which is the most accurate formula? Preferably one that can be used at all temperatures.

    Thanks!

    "Feels like" is so ambiguous, I wouldn't bother. You get PE teachers that can wear shorts in the peak of winter and people who wear duffel coats in 22c. We all feel the temperature differently anyway.

    Plus you can check every weather website going and they'll all show different values.

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    4 hours ago, mushymanrob said:

    well we will get something, but not the long lasting real heat some previous models were predicting.

    There are huge differences between the ECM and GFS. ECM is showing mid-high 20s from saturday for god knows how long. GFS low 20s for the weekend before a drop off. UKMO is too short range and the Met Office's text forecasts are typically ambiguous. 

    I don't understand enough to make heads or tails of the more advanced stuff like the anomaly charts etc and have no idea what T850s or Geopots are. All I know is that I am feeling physically sick just thinking about the prospect of sustained heat akin to what we got at the end of May's 3rd week.

    I feel the heat more than most people do and never feel cold in the winter because of it. But in Summer, I feel warm at 17c and I hate my body for it. Some people are still in sodding duffel coats at 20c. If there was ever proof that reverse S.A.D disorder exists then I'm it. I would take dry and sunny over the wind and rain of the last weekend any day of the week but we in the UK cannot get such weather without it being laced with humidity from sodding europe.

     

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted · Edited by Ice Man 85
    typo

    7 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean shows a very warm spell on the way and the word hot can be applied for the south..very summery outlook..all being well!:D

    ECMAVGEU12_120_1.png

    ECMAVGEU12_144_1.png

    ECMAVGEU12_144_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_168_1.png

    ECMAVGEU12_168_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_192_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_216_2.png

    ECMAVGEU12_240_2.png

    Indulge me because I have no idea what an 850 or Geopot is, but those colour gradients seem the same to me so how can the SE differ? I prefer the GFS charts; nice simple numbers for a weather noob like me:cc_confused:

    • Like 1

    Model Output Discussions 12z 01/06/2017

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    20 minutes ago, Scorcher said:

    Don't be silly, it's not an issue for most people if it happens at the weekend! Some people actually enjoy the heat- a couple of days of it isn't going to cause problems.

    Not everyone has the weekends off. I do shifts. As for "problems" I'm speaking purely for my own tolerance for heat which ends at 23c. I'm not a complete mope; I'd take settled and sunny any day of the week over the rain and winds seen over the last few days. But as for what the ECM is showing, I have to say I'd look forward more to being executed than sweating in heat like that.

    • Like 2

    Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

    in Forecast Model Discussion

    Posted

    7 hours ago, cheese said:

    Been on the booze a little early today Eugene. :drunk:

    I'm tea total and I agree with him. When we get warmer weather, its always laced with humidity that adds a good 3-4 degrees to what it actually is. Its that same humidity that lingers at night and makes it unbearable.

    • Like 1
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