[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, mattneal said:

under the pink bit and nothing falling here

What nothing at all or just rain ? 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Is anyone seeing snow from this it’s rather heavy, so maybe sleety big wet flakes in the heaviest part. It’s frezing over the last hour now.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

25 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

We start at 3.4, it's now 4.3 lol looks like the occlusions temp is 4c

Yes sorry I see your point now, I’m probably 80/20 with even a flake falling today, 20 being yes lol, but still could change later.

26 minutes ago, E17boy said:

I am in Milton Keynes now and it's really cold here that wind has really got something to it. Dry here at the moment with broken cloud but I am expecting something when that second occlusion comes over.

regards ????

Let’s hope so, the precipitation is dying rather quickly as it sinks SE.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

Well won't be any snow here, warmed up since we transferred into the occlusion?

It’s 4c from 7c

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Drawing those blue and red lines with the short explanation makes it so much easier to understand what’s going on.  Thanks.

 

7 minutes ago, Sharpedge said:

Drawing those blue and red lines with the short explanation makes it so much easier to understand what’s going on.  Thanks.

No problem it helps us out, I don’t really understand it, when people go really technical so I’ll deliver the refined explanations.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, Dami said:

It's stopped doing what it's doing. And no, i'm under the pink but weather say no. 

must start soon for you, as the radar relies on model input so you may se snowflakes in the next hour or so, who knows anymore ?

 

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Radar grabs suggest wintry mix on the back edge of the front, can see the heavy snow showers building in the occluded front, let’s hope it stays at the same strength as it’s sinks away this afternoon and tonight.

My take as if now, blue line westwards is where the cold air is moving in, and obviously red line is that occluded front bringing the possible snow/sleet to our region later on. 

The fax charts seems to keep the occluded front, going as it leaves SE U.K., however I’m unsure why Met office haven’t even forecast any precipitation later on, but models and bbc do. Let a days radar watching begin.

 

ALL I CAN SAY RIGHT NOW IN BRENTSOOD ITS PIDDLING IT DOWN!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Matty88 said:

My take on things - potential for limited wintry precip for us tomorrow. I just can't get excited though - it's not a strong enough potential - and any wintry precip will be moving through at a fair lick. Dustings at best in my view. 

Going onto Sunday - again, it's a weak set up for snow for anyone in SE/EA, nothing significant precip wise sticking around. Why would the met want to issue a warning for us on such weak potential? 

Further ahead - we should all be concentrating on developments with the Stratospheric set up from next week - the GFS is practically rendered useless by this and will change considerably by next week - keep your eyes out for the potential for a strong easterly mid-latter end of Feb. Afraid this won't become clear until nearer the time - the charts (particularly GFS) are hopeless at sorting this out at this range

They will want to issue a warning for ice as temps tommorow night drop below freezing after the late afternoon rain and freezing temps soon after, they issue warnings for no reason anyway, likewise yesterday mornings event was a dusting even where heaviest ppn was and no ice formed so no need for warning.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, yamkin said:

This morning's GFS model is still showing the back edge of the rain band on Friday turning to snow from early afternoon into the evening across the SE including London!!

The same above scenario is being shown for Sunday too!!

Also yamkin, it’s after the main band of PPN I believe may have a chance to dry up a little for a higher chance it a slushy dusting ? and yes I agree no snow from the main band above 200m but afternoon evening, high chance !

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

4 minutes ago, yamkin said:

This morning's GFS model is still showing the back edge of the rain band on Friday turning to snow from early afternoon into the evening across the SE including London!!

The same above scenario is being shown for Sunday too!!

Thank youuuu

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

6 minutes ago, Lampostwatcher said:

we have no warning out for Friday so it' a no go but Sunday we may

unless they extend it tommrrow which I doubt

I mentioned earlier it’s still 36 hours away, Met office have issued warnings within 2 hours of a feature before, even the other day, the warning was extended southwards 6hours before on Monday night, they are focused on other warnings in force at the moment, but as it becomes clear after tonight and tommorows runs, they may issue a warning, but there definitely is something to watch for tommorow. So head high guys

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I meant the ppn oops.

Lol it’s ok, just trying to fixate on the snow chance but have to give in sometimes ?‍♂️

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

9 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I wouldn't call it that, front will disintegrate like yesterday, so if the cold does catch up, quite probable to be honest, it will be another sugar coating event.

The Front isn’t dintegrating at all it moves of into France/ Netherlands, taking heavy PPN, that will fall as snow over there, the snow that could possibly happen is dribs and drabs left Behind after the main front. That precipitation will disintegrate but not the front.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

8 minutes ago, Uxbridge90 said:

-5.3c last night, although I'm sure it felt colder the night before! 

Tomorrow looks pretty rubbish for snow doesn't it? Wet, cold and on the wrong side of marginal!

 

I wouldnt say it’s in the wrong side of marginal, people will have a few suprises, the GFS run shows snowfall at around 4pm tommorow evening mainly in the shower form, but HIRLAM hints at a heavy band of precipitation moving through at around 5pm falling as snow laying a few hours for the far SE and East Anglia, I’m keeping my eye on it, will know more this evening after tonight’s run.

 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, E17boy said:

That's great thanks for that information getting a bit excited about tomorrow I commute to Milton Keynes from my home in Walthamstow so if I see anything will definitely keep this thread posted. 

Kind regards ????

I’m excited to as any potential is good but don’t be to dissapointed if nothing comes of it, although I’ve got a feeling. No worries, I hope it helps you a bit, make sure you post here though.

Justin

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, E17boy said:

Morning all hope you all are ok. Reading some of the posts I am a bit confused. Some are saying we could have a possible snow event afternoon to evening tomorrow. However just read the metoffice update for our region and that is saying the overnight rain clearing in the morning to leave a bright day with the odd wintry shower. Apologise in advance if I have read wrong but I was just a bit confused. 

Wishing everyone a great day

????

Met office rely on UKMO, and wouldn’t mention snow unless there is a trend, not saying it’s definite there’s a slight possibility of a dusting m, over East anglia, Suffolk, east essex, and Kent, keep coming back here over the next 24hours, most likely a bust by tonight’s update anyway ?? if you look at the charts below, it’s very marginal. It looks overwhelming but pretty clear. We have -6 a -8 uppers by tommorow evening, so precipitation would likely fall as sleet if not snow but wouldn’t settle at 2metre temperatures a little high. 

 

And again, if this continues tonight Met office will pick it up and mention the possibility of a wintry mix, as they usually do when they are unsure.

 

hope I helped

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

GFS also suggesting potential snow even for tommorow as well as Hirlam, let’s wait until 12z.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Excited to see if Hirlam pulls this off, and it’s after the main band of precipitation, so if dew points and temps and uppers correlate, could be in for a surprise tommorow evening. EDIT- Dew points at -1 / -2 tommorow evening. Temps at around 3/4c so snow may fall but may not settle.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Just now, snowbob said:

Absolutely 

especially as the snow fell in places that were not forecast.

or in the warning zone

It was all further west, but hey guess what it’s only our region in for a snow chance tommorow evening, so that’s a plus even if it doesn’t materialise.

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Another light snow shower in Brentwood, is Fridays back edge snow out if the equasion

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Heavy snow

1cm xxx

Signs of devolpments east of that large blop on top of Cambridge, on the last radar grab probably nothing, but could relay what it done earlier, which was form ou of nowhere. Although didn’t need a yellow warning

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

I’d love to be in Cambridge right now

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

Actually changed my mind, think the precipitation is just following the NNE,ly so will start decaying soon 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

It’s strangely more West over north central London, does this mean as the front leaves the U.K., it will edge percipitaiton eastwards again. Can confirm snow here in Canvey Island, in 127 quite heavy snow 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 01/01/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

I find the netweather radar can give false echoes as I've often been under snow when nothing at all is falling

Isn’t it due to the very dry air, and the cloud base being a lot higher up.