[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Showers forming all along the east coast(northern) in the last 45 minutes, expect more to from soon, around east anglia, and Thames estuary, as cloud piles in, Ive been waiting so patiently all weekend ! 

[East Anglia and North London weather discussion (25/02/2018) onward]

Gritting tonight at 2am, non stop double run( the route twice) 20g of salt chucked out the spinner on every full spin, so 40g in every bit of road effectively by morning, believe me ringway Jacobs and Essex council are stressing beyond belief. Hate night runs but there is an upside when snow is forecast, instead of being called on a run, just because road temps are at -1c.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Yep, in all honesty I've been looking at the high RES models all day and couldn't tell you where will see a dusting or more substantial snow in the morning, some show right up the Thames into Berkshire, some show nothing, some show just east counties. 

That's why I love this kind of setup! Nobody has a scooby

Exactly, my thoughts entirely! Arome different to Arpege, Arpege different to Harmonie, Harmonie different to Hirlam, it’s a guessing game, now cast tonight !

 

Just now, James Oliver said:

I've always wondered how the spinner works. Say you stop at a red light does it automatically stop spinning?

No. This is why sometimes you see nice lump of salt at junction, the computer next to me is a button, push to spread and vice versa, all I can control from the cab is the rate of salt dispensed, where on the road, and how fast, we have to stop the spinner manually when stationary, believe me we hate it, but Essex council won’t give funding for more up to date technology. 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Southender said:

Forgive my ignorance mate, but 20g of salt? I have more than that on my chips?! What am I missing? ?

Well the gritters are loaded with 5 tonne of salt, and the spinners on the back dispense 20g ever 1.5 seconds! Lol sorry should have explained further !

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, DonnaThw said:

Thanks for looking after us and working at night in this cold weather

No problem buddy, have to keep the country going, what people don’t understand is that you have to start driving in the snow for the salt to begin the melt! Should be broadcast, no one really knows that!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Ties in with the NMM which also shows Surrey grabbing something.

Love this rare timenin British weather where we can be guessing where and when places will get snow, not if and what? ?

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

I work for Ringway Jacobs / Essex county council, double grit runs tonight, and all out all week, 8 runs a day, even the rusty old ploughs were tested on Friday, anyway 20grams of salt each run, 60g of salt on the roads by tommorow morning, out at 2am for my go at gritting will be getting my map reader to update me on the radars, they love me at work, always tell them what the weathers doing, I told them about this spell before the bosses were stressing out Friday when they requested more info from Met office! Salt been brought in at a steady rate!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, throwoff said:

This is the one. METO seem to think showers all night.

Love that METO forecast, am I right in saying that their map looks as if a streamer is evident, possible an amber warning tommorow if it’s continuous through the day.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, James Oliver said:

Woohoo!!

Shame it was anaprop?

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

I need to take a break 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Halo round the moon, some moisture up there, clouds building in canvey now, surprisingly I’m not that cold, sheltered from the wind in the back alley I suppose ?

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Essex Chelle said:

Yeah I went in my kitchen with no loght on and the moon is so bright. I am down the point end of the island been here nearly 2 years my boy goes to school off the island so I doubt I will risk it tomorrow as it is I have to go work 4pm over burnt mills area.

I know see the cold brings many beauty’s, I love just a short walk from the oysterfleet, yes going to be v interesting I think. Don’t think kids will be at school some days this week, probably Tuesday/ Wednesday, due to ice aswell as snow ? Tommorow evening looks the worst but a nice covering to wake up to possibly

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

3 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

I'd imagine if their own model stands firm with regard to snow on Thursday into Friday then they'd add a warning at some point tomorrow?

They are very cautious when it comes to warnings, tommorow, latest Tuesday morning they will place warnings, they have placed warnings for Thursday eve/ For the dw, our region will be more likely to be affected early Friday through to midday, so just outside there time range, plus they have a lot of warnings and weather to focus on for the coming days that could need adjustments, and very possibly red warnings if it comes to it, not taking the mick, things could pop up, that could fit the criteria 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Just now, Speedbird said:

Good part of the world to live - whereabous in Leigh ? I'm inland, not far from Rochford Corner

Me and you both are going to do well mate, looking forward to the copious snow showers

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

2 minutes ago, Essex Chelle said:

Another islander ?? just noticed in the last hour humidity gone from 58% to 67% any reason as to why?

Yes born and bred islander, rarely do we get high chances of snow! Anyway this will be due to the colder uppers edging  there way in now, bringing convective and more unstable airflow, game is on now, busy week ahead, isn’t it chilly outside now, crystal clear sky’s now though, have a look.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, london-snow said:

Beast from the east?

OR

Bas**** from the east? 

Honestly the way this has been hyped up and now a possibility of a few snow showers here and there (except those near coastal locations which is more favourable) is pathetic followed by a snow to rain event come end of week, 

Roll on spring if we can’t see settling snow that sticks around for a few days. Here’s hoping that the outlook looks more favourable.

Yes I see where you are coming from, I’d rather Bands of prolonged snow, but it depends where you are located, and I don’t think it will be a rain snow even Friday, as I said uppers aren’t that cold, but snow cover and the deep cold hanging  12-6 hours before low arrives, it will make temps around the base ofthe clouds , hence lower temperature increasing snow chances, anyway spring will come, but right now we have a BEAST FROM THE EAST , best in years don’t play it down now

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Right guys, thurs/ Friday looks interesting, -2 to -6  uppers, however cloud temp below and in will be lower and even with -2 uppers will still fall as snow, allbeit won’t be as powdery as the snow we are going to have Monday - Wednesday. Looks good!

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

1 minute ago, Meggy said:

Serious question - I have a friend flying into Southend airport from Amsterdam at 10am tomorrow morning! is he likely to have problems? Thanks everyone!

They will be fine, however if it was Tuesday at 10 a different kettle of fish, even later Monday could cause problems. 

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

7 minutes ago, craigore said:

The problem wth streamers is they will only effect 20-30% of us ..

We really want widespread showers ,otherwise they will be a lot of us disapointed by Weds

Im hoping as the wind veers N.E then E then S.E  there will be more of a even distribution for most if not all of us.

Yes totally! This is highlighted in Met office forecast, However, when the deepest cold is with us, likewise bringing instability, and aiding lake effect snowfall, all areas will see snowfall I’m confident with that, even if some places have a few cm, to others having 15+ I’m confident we will all be relieved come Wednesday. Also models are worst at forecasting showers, could form anywhere. Anyway for our region there has been upgraded in the last 6-12 hours for snowfall earlier tommorow. So fingers crossed guys.

[Kent, Home counties and south London general weather discussion 25/02/2018 onwards]

Thames streamer possible as early as rush hour tommorow, could cause tricky commutes!! I have to travel from canvey to London and back tommorow, I’m hoping rails will be ok, even for tommorow, Monday night looks even better. Canvey is looking one of the best spots for the next few days, inc Southend/ dartford/ sittingbourne, if this produces 10’s of centimetres it would make up for the lack of snow for many years now! 

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

11 hours ago, yamkin said:

Intense SSW is in action & the models have picked this up, hence today's fluctuations. No need to be concerned as the current Beast From The East is still on course.

The SSW graph had to be extended to new parameters to accommodate the intensification of SSW. This intensification is the result of the energy from the recent CME (Coronal Mass Ejection) from the sun.

Thank you yamkin, I just suggested that maybe if it affected models before since yesterday and the few runs after that with variations that become slightly inconsistent between runs it may be due to that. As the second warming is currently happening. I know we have got the beast on the way!!

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

I’m saying it’s again the second SSW is causing the upset… I hope

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Canadian PV gets nuked?

GFS reserves the better eye candy for later but we have seen some stunning winter charts again this morning.

 

1 hour ago, Mucka said:

Canadian PV gets nuked?

GFS reserves the better eye candy for later but we have seen some stunning winter charts again this morning.

There was a second smaller SSW which helped bring down that beast, apparently the first one was not enough, transferring energy eastwards, as you would expect, the second warming is currently or has just finished happening which is 2 of 3, the third being expected at the end of March, i did mention it but to no attention as everyone was ramping yesterday!?,if what the models have shown over the past few runs, the position of a high, short waves, along with lots of positives, it could be down to the brief further change in the strat,again,affecting models further for a few runs so… it will be getting cold, and it will have snow potential, but they need to be in the t96 t72 for being 100%, or near enough, on more details of where when how and what. Food for thought, think I like GEM this morning, S’ely with deep cold uppers penetrating central southern England, aswell as the whole country unlike other runs where the high gets a bit to nosey. This shows that there is still variation even now. I’m not saying it’s incorrec, but as we all know things change, even when it’s a trend. Constant snow showers and frigid, all the way to the end of the run, this is still going to be special !

[SE and East Anglia general weather discussion 11/02/2018 onwards]

So guys quick question, this secondary spike of a smaller SSW, could this affect the models briefly again with the the upcoming runs? It did before and as it has been happening today and is currently happening could cause a bit of confusion to the output, lesser than of late but still could bring forward false downgrades vice Versa. 

[Model output discussion - here comes the beast!]

Is there any chance at all that the  spike of a smaller second SSW affect the models again for a few days. I just know that it affected models before and could do again as they re adjust, as the second wave of warming is currently happening, and the next few runs, including the 12z may become confused. I know it’s a strat post, but it’s related to the models, of and a big IF they affect them again, just to stop toys being thrown.