Justin123
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Posts posted by Justin123
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9 minutes ago, chrcoluk said:
so how is sea staying calm during storm?
5 minutes ago, suffolkboy_ said:Pokey little cell just fired up south of Bristol out of nowhere!
I can hear the thunder from the storm currently over Stansted! Can see the odd flash too. It's a hour and a quarter drive from me!
Right next to this storm. Constant lightning every few seconds, stansted arrivals seem to be flying sw over north London and back round to stansted due to this severe thunderstorm.
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Aircraft doing really strange manevours getting into stansted, flying around that almighty cell o would say around 90 strikes a minute now, I've got my eyes peeled waiting for one of tear planes to be illuminated by the sheet lightning across the sky. I'm starting to think that the letdowns we've had recently will give way to a magnificent night ahead !!
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Currently in Harlow Essex, intercepting a cell that has grown on the SE flank of the MCS it seems to be stronger than the main MCS and is packing a punch with big blue glows of CC lighting nothing more than a rumble even overhead as they are fairly elevated.
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15 minutes ago, Petorious said:
My guess this big chuck maybe the big event but it will continue NNE in direction and could grow and be quite an eventful night for many?
No your incorrect, all day we have been saying that that feature is not the main event it's what will develop afterwards as the trough moves north eastwards across C/s England. I could see why you would think tht but keep an eye on the radar as something big is going to happen.
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The winds are really gusting here , there is a lot of ACAS about, I hope something is going to happen today, I am more in favour for storms initiating in the channel and northern France and swoop most of England and Wales during the night, like most large import events where MCS and supercell so are present. We need a good event, as I feel homegrown a are never the same !
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Any potential tonight ?
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Some very impressive clouds apes out here today, extremely hot and humid, today it think is the day !!
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Just now, Chris.R said:
Yep same here, 3 busts in a row here. It's so frustrating. Certainly for the north-west it's been a terrible year.
I am definitely one for the decline in storms in recent years, however, when they happen they tend to be quite big and tend to be edging towards severe however nothing like the old French imports we used to receive all summer back in the day.
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I'm just reminiscing on the huge cells last Thursday and yet again another Bust for us then even when we had a MDT and SVR convective forecast. So I hope today feeds my storm starve appetite.
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Can see today's precipitation pushing north from NE France , looks like the only extremely SE/E coast will have any chance of a storm the rest will just b showers, sorry everyone up north, but you got to share ! LOL
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2 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:
Probably due to the shallow CAPE values and fairly low lapse rates.
I suppose so, but there are still cape values which can cause at least a few strikes in the heavy precipitation, correct me if I'm wrong.
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It's a shame these cells have the potential but there is something stopping them progressing into sferic precipitation, wouldn't be upraised if there's some hail mixed in the shower core.
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Looking forward o tomorrow A.M as I am right under the SLGT warning zone, although I have to keep my excitement and bay as I've beep let down a lot recently, tomorrow looks somewhat more promising even though there's little CAPE it shows how weird and wonderful our climate can be here in the UK
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any chance for storms near London tonight ?
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This cell fired up within 10 minutes and it's tracking straight towards my front door!! Let's hope it produces scferics before it gets here!!
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1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:
The big thing forming in biscay - is this where we'll be getting the overnight stuff from?
If so we're gonna have a bit of a wait
No I think tht the storms forecast overnight are meant to form in the English Channel, watch the hefty shower that's formed south of Bognor.
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9 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:
I won't be in Basildon as I'm off driving around the south and east, be sure to give any reports if anything happens.
Also could you edit your profile to include your location, it helps a lot! Thanks
I certainly will let you know about what you missed back at home tomorrow, lol. Yes I will, sorry haven't got too doing it been to excited the past few days. This better go bang big time.
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17 minutes ago, Wet'n'Dry said:
I think some people should accept they may not see a storm tomorrow. It's always been the case that a Thames Streamer or Kent clipper has happened that it was basically an import. Our weather is so dynamic that forecasting is not always an exact science, coupled with the fact that London acts as an UHI then anything is possible and may become a breeding ground for all points north
For tomorrow I wouldn't be placing the emphasis on the south east but more to the north and west of the severe risk area, it's just a gut feeling!!
Shhhhhh don't say that we need some storms here in Basildon! I think we may get the weaker storms and they strengthen as day time heating occurs tomorrow, with all that cape to tap into. But I hope I'm awoken by a storm in the early hours, I love that feeling.
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I believe that we may be experiencing storms for a solid 18 hours to 24 hours from around 2300z tonight, cirrus very present across southern Britain, an early indication of the instability to come.
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6 minutes ago, Windblade said:
I agree with this, but I personally think if we get any imports they will be late evening. Happy to be proved wrong though!
It's a good sign if there's sferics before the warning time, but yes you probably are correct, but anything special would be 4pm onwards into late evening night time.
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4 minutes ago, TJS1998Tom said:
How about us here in Lincoln? Seeing as we're just in the warning area
Well it is hard to say, but it depends how far northwards they reach before dispersing, but you may be lucky.
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Keep an eye on the northern France cells though, as the met office stated that it was continental fed storms. Hopefully we can get some nice imports. That's just my little prediction of where the best sferics would be. I think these are just lunchtime rain with thunder showers. The main risk is later on at 4pm onwards as that's the met offices weather warning start time.
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Torrential rain appeared literally in seconds and instant dark clouds, that was strange.
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Nice little cell a few clicks from Harlow - edit, now near me just shook the house
nice cloud structure aswell, will upload a picture once my excitement has gone down.! Harlow,essex
nice cloud structure aswell, will upload a picture once my excitement has gone down.! Harlow,essex
Convective/Storm Discussion Thread - 8th July onwards
in Storms & Severe Weather
Posted
Houston, we have lift off