StormLoser

OK, maybe I'm over-reacting. But seeing those ping-pong ball sized hail photos has encouraged me to pop out and pull an old plastic tarp over our new greenhouse. It took us a year to get it sorted and I'm damned if it's going to be smashed by "French Hail"!! Rain arriving in Reigate.

Good spot. Surely that's too big? Signs of rotation from Anvil down.

Incoming that passed over Littlehampton looks like it's heading Reigate way. It does not seem electrically active (couple of pops). Good for the pond.

Live web cam closer to the Caen action: https://www.vision-environnement.com/webcam/portfolio/webcam-cabourg-promenade-marcel-proust/ . But weird, no lightning at ground. Cloud to cloud? At least, no plague of flies for them!

The live webcam from leHavre shows some good cloud structures but perhaps too far from the storms for lightning. There also seems to be a biblical plague of flies in the area: https://www.lehavretourisme.com/en/live-webcam

Blitzortung shows that Caen storm to be flashing like a Christmas tree. Must be some nice lightning out there!

Lol - in that case bring it on!

Maybe I am thick; but I'm not seeing this 'event' building nor happening...

Hmm the site I'm using has not really got enough detail. Thanks Chris K - I'll check out yours. Appreciate it!

Still struggling with these models. Estofex and GFS show virtually no CAPE and LI over the UK for the next 24 hours. Unless I'm blindsided. Met Office and a few others here (sorry guys about missing names) are modelling Armageddon. Is this a true division of opinion? Or are we simply importing what's brewing in France?

Reminds me of leaving St Louis airport in 1995, straight into a squall line that was progressing up the runway very slowly. That was a roller-coaster of a climb out! Wings flexing, plane rolling, up, down with the passengers cheering every drop and bounce. It was the side-slides that were the most uncomfortable, where we were pushed against the cabin wall as the aircraft dropped sideways! Every so often a purple flash for lightning. I never worried about bad weather and aircraft after that, having seen those wings warp around like they did. Yep - enjoy!

I'm struggling with the difference in the Models. Estofex is my usual port of call and they've stuck with their model as of yesterday. But this morning's weather is pretty much as expected and the radar trend looks like the Met Office is right. I shall watch with interest. If only I could feel the more dramatic models for this evening are correct; but I've seen so many busts I tend to remain rather cynical. Like a few other folks on this forum, I have a weird storm-free zone around me. I consoled myself with Pecos Hank videos on YouTube last night... Lucky man. Unlucky residents.

I just saw the Estofex forecast. They have the later shortwave trough going through northern France and Belgium rather than pushing into the UK. It's virtually the opposite of the Met Office. Past experience lends me to go with the Estofex forecast for now, though I'm happy to be proved wrong.

Keeping an eye on this. With a history of every storm avoiding me, I'm hoping to see some action Tuesday evening/Wednesday. Also waiting to see Estofex's take on things. This late afternoon seems to have acquired a cooler touch as cool air has lapped northwards from the Channel.

Absolutely pouring with rain here in Reigate. Tipping it down. No lightning (yet). Of course, Monday we had a deluge. And I had to laugh when I heard the neighbour's gardener jet-washing in the back garden yesterday.

The rain finally departs Reigate area. We had a couple of flashes of lightning about 40 minutes ago, the only electrical activity out of the whole day. But plenty of rain!

OK, I admit it. With an Amber Warning out I'll forget the BBQ and start taking some interest (sorry - after years of yellow weather warnings I am incredibly cynical about them). Looking at the warning zone I say the forming small low pressure (a low level core from the Netherlands area) off the east coast, drifts inland right through the warning area. So I'd go for part home grown (weak local instability) and part imported - pulling a lot of moisture in from the north and east of the low (from the sea) as it develops. A bit of a crusty on-the-fly model for you... (Apologies if I am wrong). PS sorry about the edits - I have arthritis and my keyboard rebels against me...

Hah! Throwing forecast charts at me, eh? With my history of every storm in the UK detouring around me, I'm setting up the BBQ for the afternoon. Estofex forecast shows the majority of the serious stuff off in Europe to the south and east of the UK across the Channel, with a little raised threat clipping East Anglia. I'll go with that (as I usually do). Meanwhile, sun's coming out here but not enough for much forcing. The models (like fujita5 says) showed focus for the central south of the UK. The next batch out of France is already trending that way.

I had a small party a couple of days ago. A buffet, really. I got the neighbours around and we all celebrated the very first rumble of thunder heard here in Reigate this June. After that we put away the party stuff for next year. Meanwhile, I see the Met Orofice is forecasting Biblical floods for SE and E England the next two or tree days. Just popping out to plant some cacti. Whilst the air is destabilising around us, I don't see the inundations they are promising. Rain, yes. Worth a yellow weather warning? Nope.

Meanwhile in Reigate we got a bit of rain. And...that was it. Sigh. Enjoy your storms!

Sigh. Rain to the west of me, rain to the east of me. Forward into the valley of bone dryness I ride. What is it about Reigate in Surrey that 100% storm-proofs me? My garden is wilting, my storm watching is like watching paint dry. Even Brickfielder's Continental Clipper is going through Kent. Happy hunting folks. Hope some of us have a good day!

Live webcam at LeHavre showing occasional nice lightning off to the west. Shame the camera is on auto-pan! Meanwhile, the mass coming off the Channel is now preparing to split to go either side of my house. Sigh.

I'm watching the Channel mass with interest! The early showers only gave a few drops of rain here. It didn't even move our cat from his sunbathing spot.

Destabilizing nicely over here. I see some echoes from showers moving north towards me, but small fry at the moment. Looking wider afield, the compression from the encroaching front is beginning to make itself felt. It might shove all the interesting weather further east before it develops over here. But I confess it has pepped up in France much further west than I thought it would. I still have my fingers crossed for seeing some action later today.

Thanks for the forecast Dan! I'll go out and tighten the bolts on my lightning conductor array.... ?️