StormLoser

And the Met Office have issued a warning for the SE. This will be interesting (well, for me), because Estofex has a much reduced risk compared to other forecast models. I'm happy to go with Nick here (above), and the Met Office. However, I must be cautious (as per my name). A week last Friday, the storms actually parted and went west and east of Reigate! While others enjoyed storms, we got a piddly shower of rain.

Thanks for the new thread. I'm eyeing the developments over west and northern France. Radar echoes show fast building showers, and the airflow direction is good. I have a faintly good feeling about this for my area. (Famous last words...)

It looks like we are now done and finished. Not much for Reigate, a few storms rolled past nearby and a good amount of rain (at LONG last!). Looking at the radar, it seems the warnings are on the ball. Masses of storms and rain to the east and north. Have fun and take care under that lot.

I know the feeling! Hence my name: StormLoser. Hope you have some luck later!

At last! Some rain. A mix of sun and cloud around, though. One cell appeared to be raining over us on the radar but none reached the ground. But now we caught the tail end of a new cell. The smell from the ground is amazing! It has not rained here since 7 June. All sorts of aromas including ozone, so maybe the air is charged? Good to have even a small amount of rain. I can hear thunder around, but can't see the source.

I don't believe this! I can see dark masses to the west as storms pass through Dorking, leaving me dry. Maybe I'll get lucky later. Meanwhile, garden, lemonade, listen to distant thunder.

Thank you! Though the Met Office has extended the warning area to the south, now. It matches Estofex's Level 1 area. So, I'm going to remain stubbornly hopeful!

Ugh those things! I remember being absolutely swarmed by them in France many years ago! The car windows were coated in them, and they got everywhere. Yuk. Bad luck.

At the moment it is very hot and bright down here in tumbleweed-town (Reigate). I see good radar echoes popping up in northern France and heading north into the Channel. Our area looks like it is in line for these so I'll be watching them with interest. And I see (sorry, a bit belatedly) the Met Office have updated their warning to cover the south and east. Even if I don't get action, I will appreciate any rain that comes our way. I have noticed for some years that the Cherbourg area often gets large storms. It must be something to do with the geography there.

You could not move that easterly line a few miles further east, could you?

Brentwood. But all the cells are short-period jobs. They go up, drop a bit of rain and collapse. Is this it? Or will it build more generally?

Estofex also issues a level 1 for the rest of us in the east. Like my area! Interesting....!

I'm in Reigate near Gatwick. I'm really hoping for some rain tomorrow which, if it happens, will be the first since 7 June! We've almost got to the point of tumbleweed blowing past. It won't be long before the local pub puts in swing doors and a honkytonk piano to go with the dusty Arizona-like landscape. Let's hope we get some action down here!

And in fact, looking at the Met Office's pressure charts, Friday could be a really interesting day, too. It may change I know, but I would not be surprised to see some activity on the day. One thing is for sure - we need rain here. The last day it rained for me was 7 June.

Crikey. I think I'd be running for my bunker with that around. Despite being a storm enthusiast! Great video.

Hah - hence my name "Storm Loser"! I went through a dry period for a few years where every storm seemed to avoid me. Fortunately I ended the "dry" spell last year, when my son and I had a great night watching some huge lightning around our home. I had a good May, too. Yes it's a frustration when things don't turn up or miss the area. But that's luck of the draw. In May the major storms missed us - but the compensation was a grandstand view from several miles south. So I'm not going to complain. I'm considering a trip to the USA to join some storm chasing teams next year. I hope to get my fill of some big storms over there, and even (if I am lucky) see a tornado. Still, I'll consider tonight a success if we get some rain on our garden; some of our bushes are really struggling now.

Actually, I suppose it is! Lol. I think what gets me is they use terminology like "warnings" at the Yellow Stage. I'd much prefer they'd use "Advisory" for the Yellow stage. I also think they could add a new level called "Interesting" level - for UK weather buffs to chat over. Anyhow. I'm not up for arguing. It's just a personal take on it. I'm off out the back now to adjust the bolts on my array of ten lightning conductors.... ?️

Sorry - I wasn't getting at you. Yes I do have a beef with the Met Office and I've fed it back to them in their last survey. It is over their weather warning system and it is on these points; Weather warnings are not rescinded promptly when the threat of said weather reduces. Warnings are too eagerly launched, and are not frequently updated enough. The result tends to be a "cry wolf" situation where the warnings are ignored.So much for public safety. The warning system should be adjusted to new stages: advisories; warnings; threats. These would be more appropriate for our kinds of weather. The system is often South-East UK centric (as was amply demonstrated by last night's Northern Ireland inundation that went unremarked). Warning zones follow the MO's standard UK breakdown: like South West and South East England. These areas are too broad for warning notices, especially high alerts. The grid is hopeless and virtually meaningless for most folks, especially when there is a sporadic threat. It is just a personal beef.

Oh that matrix. Their Get Out of Jail Free card. To be frank, there comes a box-ticking point they may as well not issue a warning. It boils down to how they can avoid being sued. Sorry, but I've had my fill of that matrix. It's worse than useless - a bit like ticking boxes on a health and safety "for the record" card.

Thanks! Straight onto my bookmark bar.

They put us in a 1 zone back in May when we had the big storms down here. Again, they were spot on. Sadly each and every one of those storms missed me. On the plus side I had a good view as they passed north over south London. Some good lightning! My first instinct is always: "what does Estofex say?" I queried the Met Office about the contradictions between the forecasts one day, only be told very sniffily that Estofex models were different to the Met Office's ones and (what I read into it) is the MO would never dirty their forecasts with such rubbish.

What????!!!! The sun's just broken through!!! All those matches wasted - or perhaps I burnt the clouds away. Still not enough for forcing though.

Once again the Met Office weather warning was fatuous. It was unnecessary for them to put a warning out for this and I am surprised they misread it so badly. After a grey day here with no sun and a few spots of drizzle, our surface forcing is about as much as lighting a match on the patio, so we'll only get what's generated elsewhere and pushed our way by the trough moving south east. I'm just popping out now to light some matches...lol On the plus side, it looks like I may see some rain for the garden later on! It's about time the tumbleweed was washed down. Estofex forecast was, as usual, spot on.

So far as I am concerned the Met Office weather warning is fantasy. It is grey overcast here in Reigate, Surrey. No forcing, no sun. General rain milling about to the east. I seriously cannot see anything to kick off convection here. The only hope I have is of compression from the approaching fronts from the west. Even Estofex's forecast is for very weak activity.

At last, here in storm-deprived Reigate, I got to watch a very nice cell chug north through Dorking (lucky lot). Plenty of cloud-to-cloud and quite frequent. Missed us (as usual). But at least a good start to 2018.