scotty_boy_winter
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Posts posted by scotty_boy_winter
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Well it appears the info I sneaked from October from the horses mouth of the met has proved correct so far. An Atlantic changeable dominated winter so far. The latest from the met doesn't make better reading. March could be the coldest month over the next quarter
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Lmfao!!!! Great to see you move the goalposts now you've realised the first week in December won't be mild!!!
Very very clever Ian. Unfortunately you can't fool anyone and thats why people dismiss the majority of what you have to say. You said a mild first week. It's been cold. Now you say a mild last third. Even if it is mild you won't be right. If you were any good you would have got the first week right. Just keep saying mild, mild , mild and eventually you'll get one right (;
With a progressively milder last third of December now very much on the cards, a plus 5C Dec now looks likely.
Going forward I'm also seeing similarities between the fortcming Jan and Jan 1999, where the Stratospheric profile changed markedly but the PV persisted and HP to the NE could never develop as it may have done.
Either way, looking at my stats abov, a plus 5C December is a rather large elephant in the room when considering the subsequent Jan and Feb.
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I will speak to him when he gets back from Cyprus. He's based there at the minute working alongside the RAF. Hell then be in Germany for 5 weeks. Mr madden needs bringing down a peg or two that's for sure
Maybe you could get your Uncle, best friend, lover, cleaner, to alert the press eh! :winky:
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The guy is an absolute fraud. How he is getting paid to write the utter tosh in our countries papers I have no idea! What he is doing with his website is plain wrong. He has an A level in geography. That is it.....LOL Surely there is something we can do to let our press know about what he is doing?
Madden has updated and is claiming success due the recent snow in Scotland, despite the fact it's come as a result of raging zonality, rather than the
Northern blocking he predicted.... http://www.exactaweather.com/UK_Long_Range_Forecast.html
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Yeah really fair and balanced assessment. I think I should have worded it as a "uk wide" sustained cold and snowy spell. If we do get a developing Scandinavian high we do have the possibility of battleground snow but I'd say that is low confidence right now. I do believe we will see a notable snap at some stage but I think the winter will be a slow burner. Back end of January/beginning of February could be the time to watch as GP mentions but were relying on the QBO and other teleconnections to fall into place fairly soon
I think this assessment would be true if everybody lived on low ground in southern England, but many of us don't, and the further north and west you go in this sort of setup, the less likely it is to be a snowless December and early January.
The occurrence of frontal snowfalls on the 3rd February 1990 is surprising considering the modest 850hPa temperatures, but again it highlights the effects of evaporative cooling which can bring snow down to near sea level in a setup which, under light precipitation, would just give rain. I think the first part of ChartViewer's post makes me wonder if it's partly intended to wind up, because I've seen some frontal systems showing on the models with 850hPa temperatures actually a shade lower than they were on the 3rd February 1990, which would make up for the higher SSTs around the country. If the argument is that such marginal frontal events cannot deliver before January, well, there were repeated marginal snowfalls across the Midlands during mid to latter part of the "westerly" December of 1993 with frontal systems colliding with polar maritime air and wintry showers in between the rain/sleet/snow belts.
The one area where I do agree with the "naysayers" is that any kind of extensive northern blocking in the area extending from Greenland to Scandinavia, and therefore any kind of prolonged snowy weather (as opposed to short-lived marginal events), looks somewhat unlikely this side of Christmas.
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So at the end of the day if someone asked you to look at all the evidence and make a prediction for the weather upto January you would without doubt nail your colours to the non snowy mast! It's not about what is "definitely" going to happen it is what is "more likely" going to happen. It is "more likely" to be a snowless December and early January
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I think you'll find blue army that he has justified all that with his 6 points above!!!!!
No one can say for certain what happens in Fi but you can work out what the greater chance of probability is. The odds of no snow till then are 70-30. You can't dispute that. More so if you do dispute that what is your evidence to back up your statement that it will be "snowy??"
mid jan ? nonsense. you may well be right but 38 days before snow possible under current set up - no way can you justify that CV.
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The mets record in the past 2-3 years has been exceptional. We should be taking this as a massive piece of the long range jigsaw
Of course as a former member of staff you would say that! :smilz38:
Given the changes we saw during the last week then we should just wait and see what develops.
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We will agree to disagree. I don't post to argue just don't agree with some of what you wrote that's all
What is the point in taking an interest in the weather if you cannot find it exciting once in a while? I guess we will just have to agree to disagree - you think it is immoral to enjoy weather that poses the slightest risk to human life (which, lets face it, most types of weather do) and I do not.
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That's a great chart! I think your bang on with those areas
Here is a Snow Risk chart for friday and saturday, 9th/10th december.
most snow would be on high ground further south, the upper 850s temps are very low over Scotland for example, several inches could fall in the High risk zones, using data GFS/NAE.
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Good post
Sorry to anyone who got caught up in the storms today and had damage to property.
Im not sure what's coming next week! But it's still along way off!
Enjoy the science. I do, but don't wish bad weather on people. Saying an extreme weather event is an incredible act of nature is fine but hoping it happens is immoral I'm sorry I cant agree with you on this. Back on topic just needed to get that off my chest
Distasteful?
It's sad that people die due to adverse weather conditions, but that is inevitable. People on this forum pee their pants at the prospects of snow yet every year when it snows people always die on the roads. It's life, and I find it incredibly hard to feel sorry for every person who dies at the hands of mother nature. If that makes me a bad person, then I guess I am a bad person!
Anyway, back on topic, still breezy here and the pressure is rising rapidly.
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100% agree. The average decline is irafutable and for all to see. While the evidence like this continues to mount then statements of sea ice declining have and will continue to have major mitigation
They have released some data, such as a sea ice thickness map last January/February
http://www.esa.int/i...-Feb-2011,0.jpg
It seems they're having some calibration issues at the moment, it's new high tech stuff, not technology which has been established for decades. Things sometimes go wrong. If they wanted to fudge the data, they could do it in a much quieter and less obvious fashion.
As for multi-year ice..., there's always going to be some yearly variability, but a quick look at the video below shows the trend clearly enough in my opinion
Good post backed up by evidence and good theory. Keep up the good work GW
Maybe you should offer any scientists struggling with Calibration issues your Advice Four? There's nothing we can do about it here but it is irksome to be promised good data ,freely available, only to be left waiting?
Sadly , no matter what we hope for, the reality on the ground is that extra snow ( the past 2 years here and in N.America/Siberia) and ice (09's extent 'record') do not last and, as we saw last year in Siberia, even record amounts still melt earlier than the 'average' 'melting' date.
We seem to be at the end of a warming process that has lead to the destruction of the polar ice. This may well mean differing weather types across the region (Like the frozen rain blighting the reindeer herders in Lapland/Siberia) but we would need extensive tracts of snow (that are not prone to rapid melt) to offset the problem in the way you say and ,without the sea ice as a platform, the land available is too far south for such to happen without dramatic cooling occuring to facilitate it?
With the sea ice gone the land for 1,500km from the coast is impacted so we have lost the one thing that would have been able to alter the northernmost lands.
If this melt is driven by warm water influx into the Basin then it must have taken many decades to warm enough( beyond what it used to) to then make the journey north and still have enough residual heat to do the job it has done over the past 60yrs (since sub Data noted the first 'thinning').
We have to accept what the data shows us is occuring before we can try and imagine how it will impact us. Making up hopeful stories may comfort us in the short term but do us no service over the long term.
We are blessed, on our Island, by the proximity of the ocean so any climate impacts should be moderated. Recent long term droughts across Europe and the Mediterranean show us a glimpse of what we are to expect. Be it Flood or Drought it appears 'extreme' (compared to what we have been used to) will become the new Norm?
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Major major major contradiction. You say nothing is nailed until a few days before. If that is our thinking then that would render his forecast from that range a complete guess. That's what it is a guess. If you keep throwing random dates and attaching them to cold eventually you will get lucky and look like you know what your talking about. The met office (the most qualified and skilled forecasters in the uk see no significant cold In December at all
I'm not sure I would agree that 'it's been clear for some time' nothing is clear until a few days before the event where weather is concerned IMHO.
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Very distasteful dude when people's lives are at risk. Interesting?? Yeah I'm context of meteorology and science. But exciting? Not so exciting for the guy who loses his wive to a fallen tree
All forms of extreme weather puts lives at risk on a daily basis all around the world, but that is not going to stop people from getting excited when a thunderstorm rattles through, or a tornado forms nearby, or a severe heatwave is on the way.
Anyway, was nothing special here, a bit breezy 'tis all.
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Lol typical if it doesn't show what I like it must be wrong attitude. I agree looking at the teles this is by far the most likely route and has been for a few days. Just a case of letting the models cure they're headache!
That's funny because I feel it fits in with the latest teleconnective support. If I could have predicted a run on the strat thread at 9.29 am this would have been it......
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I posted way back in October what the met expected for this coming winter from my relative who works as a senior forecaster (and got shot down) I have to say I've never ever seen them as confident of a mild and snowless winter
I haven't seen anyone on here going for end of Nov cold spell, but folk are only going to be way off the mark IF MetO and GP are correct...and are they? I certainly don't think Dec will be all dire for cold.
BFTP
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Lol
[quote name=stewfox' timestamp='1321639291'
post='2161312]
In 1974 our teacher told us to put 2p or 1p coins in glasses of coke and see what happens to them over night .
In the morning the coke cleaned them like vinger etc.
Teacher said imagine what that coke does to your stomach
Thats why I still drink coke today.
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On a slight positive, this high is bottling up some serious, serious cold. If the cold gets displaced to lower latitudes (which I've been told by their office is highly unlikely this year) then it will pack a hell of a punch
Thats very true Kold,theres no way that euro block can last from the end of Oct until the end of Feb so at some point the pattern will break and in the meantime at least the jet is not firing into NW Russia there is some serious cols pooling away to the NE so it really is a waiting game although it can get annoying i have decided to cut the number of runs i look at a day down to 2 now as watching this pattern 4 times a day is probably self inflicted pain i'll wait for the all nighters waiting for the impending easterly in january hehe.
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According to my met friend we could be looking at cold zonality for the far north (northern Scotland) and high pressure further south. Not far off a Bartlett but with the high pressure further south than a true bartlett
lol Ian it is like something out of the 88/89 scarey text book and a run which has codies hiding behind their sofas.
Im comforted by the ukmo extnded outlook but for the life of me i cant see where these semi positive updates are coming from,can anyone?
lol Ian it is like something out of the 88/89 scarey text book and a run which has codies hiding behind their sofas.
Im comforted by the ukmo extnded outlook but for the life of me i cant see where these semi positive updates are coming from,can anyone?
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It could go either way but the odds on cold are about 80-20 in favour of mild as the background Synoptics/teleconnections currently show. There is still the chance of cold but it's very very small. I think we need to wait before we start to think about snow
ok, so maybe t200 is becoming more within the reliable, as there does seem to be some model agreement up to this point but beyond that, the evolutions do differ. which goes someway to strengthen my point as to how it could go any way after that point in time.
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So explain what pattern you see emerging BFTP? You keep saying its getting colder soon (that's obvious at some stage it will) but what science, charts have helped you come to this conclusion?
And last week is still a long way off model wise so no issues there, plenty of time for cold to develop as per GFS but is way in FI. Cold is term not wintry [as that may imply snowy conditions].
Re talkign of models I think talking of how they may develop is good rather than just talking of whats in front you in the model run, as they change so much and one can see what a model shows and thus unless one is a learner and such posts are very useful. But so are posts expressing how one reads a model and may see a new pattern emerge?
BFTP
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The high pressure is too far east and north to be a bartlett. Your response is 100% incorrect. I'd google the term before posting it. A bit misleading for guys learning the ropes mate
A stagnant Euro high pressure blocking the Atlantic's progression eastwards which is in no hurry to move, bringing fairly benign and mild to very mild weather of late, I'm sorry but this current spell classes as a bartlett in my book and a few other members have also described the current set up as a 'bartlett' scenario.
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I still believe background Synoptics are going to leave this winter very frustrating. The strengthening polar vortex is going to finish off November and the majority of not all of December. The talk from today's met office boffo according to my uncle is that December will be +nao +ao dominated as I got slated for giving a heads up on 3 - 4 weeks ago. This place will be depressing for hopecasters this winter I feel...let's enjoy the Atlantic depressions. It's better to just enjoy what's in front of us rather than chasing phantom snow that will not happen
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His blog makes sense. End of
But you can't take the higher moral ground of 'checking the science' and then citing a blog.
Do you reckon he's Bottoxed the graphs?
Arctic Ice Discussion (the Refreeze)
in Climate Change
Posted
This graph says it all. Looking at where we are over a near 1500 year period puts it all into context for the doubters..