scotty_boy_winter
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Posts posted by scotty_boy_winter
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This is the type of pattern my met office relative was alluding to. Very tough pattern to shift, even more so when the atmosphere is so ripe for polar vortex development! I think patience is going to be key. Winter could be tough viewing this winter.....I feel we've been spoilt the past 2 years
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Too right (:
Well as long as no one gets killed or injured.
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No probs, sorry paul, just defending myself but probably the wrong place to do it. Maybe a private message would have sufficed
UKPaul, Scotty_boy_Winter, please give up with the argument as you're ruining the thread for others. I already made one request in the thread for you to stop which was ignored, I've now gone through and deleted a bunch of posts, next step if you can't control yourselves will just be to restrict your accounts so you can't continue to ruin things for others, which I imagine you don't really want...
I think the state of the atmosphere is right for this kind of set-up. I hope I'm wrong however as I look forward to the winter snow!
http://www.accuweath...st-20112012.asp
Typical NAO+ winter
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Very true, all opinions. Nice to see you understand
The Winter will tell us who's was correct
Neither does yours.
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Again what you believe has no bearing whatsoever
Unattributable gossip is not relevant information. No Met Office forecaster would claim that they are 90% sure of anything months away in any case.
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I don't care whether you believe me or not. I don't post for gratification. I post what I believe is relevant information as another clue to possible weather come winter
I don't believe you, I thought it kinder to make a joke of it. I'll go back to straight talking then!
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I think you are bang in the money there! The ozone levels for one will only strengthen the vortex November and into a lot of December in my eyes for now
It's not too early to make an educated guess regarding the first half of November when one looks at the MJO forecasts and stratospheric profile. Any change in this would have to come in very soon and the stratospheric 10 day forecasts certainly don't suggest that blocking will be significant into November ( to the north west ) and through next month. Very different to last year in that respect. To repeat, Atlantic / Iceland trough with a strengthening polar vortex through November the likely scenario presently.
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The last part of your post Is very childish Paul, there's no place for thoses sorts of comments on your post on here.
As things moved out of FI, from about eight days before; before that then there was some hint from about two weeks out but it was seen as likely to fizzle or out or be downgraded, which this time didn't happen.
Anyway, my mate who knows someone who says that he once pretended to be from the met office said that nobody knows anything at this stage.
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Will do liam, usually meet up when I have a free Monday for a game of poker, will be interesting to see how quickly opinions change as we get deeper into winter and the weather patterns unfold
See if you can get anymore info off your mate on the coming winter and the Meto thoughts
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Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.
As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards
It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?
Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.
Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.
As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards
It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?
Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.
Sorry guys my Internet connection is shocking!!
Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.
As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards
Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.
As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards
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Yeah they did very well with the cold spell last year. I believe it's the way they will continue to forecast. They've been burnt too many times.
As I have repeated several times by the way. The met havn't forecast a thing. Just general consensus I've been told over several whiskeys and a game of cards
It's been leaked - the Meto expect an Atlantic dominated winter, what do you make of that?
Any forecast at this stage is just that and can go wrong which has been proved on many occasions, the Meto did very well last year picking up on the cold spell and handled it with expertise - very commendable performance for the Meto.
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Not really, the met believe this too and the European bodies forecast mentioned this too. As I said it could all be wrong. No one can make an accurate forecast this far out. It's all opinion based on current data. Again I hope its wrong I love the cold and snow
You're on your own in terms of thinking that scotty boy.. but as I said already, nothing is written in stone, a lot between now and December can and probably will change a lot.
I could give numerous examples of the US experience record cold and snow, in the decade just gone, while we have a benign or mild winter. I personally don't think their weather greatly effects us.
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It's not about what's right and wrong. It could be wrong and I hope it is...im a cold and snow lover. I'm just giving you a heads up on what our countries professionals opinion is. (again not their forecast) their opinion was in the region of 80-90 per cent confident. Doesn't meant it will be correct however of course but it's good info to know considering their expertise
Am confused again. Thought was established that what happens six weeks before winter starts has no bearing on the coming season. Tought November was supposed to be the month where the Atlantic dominates , is not what the models predicting just normal November weather, no disrespect to your met office friend but when was the last time the met got a long-range forecast correct ?
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They aren't forecasting anything and also won't do. A close family friend of mine is a senior forecaster (can't mention names) the general "consensus and opinion" is wet and windy will be the dominant theme from what I was told Monday night at his house
Am confused , where are the met forecasting an Atlantic dominated winter ?
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Yeah I agree, I don't think the set-up is going to play ball for high latitude blocking. It looks a poor set-up on Americas side and also the stratosphere could be against us. I noticed a distinct lack of ozone this year which will aid the polar vortex. Things starting to look like the late 90's early 00's again
I am not doubting this, I am just saying it doesn't look good for our side of the world. We need a blocked Atlantic for wintry weather or a high pressure on top of us for dry cold.
Karyo
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This was the general theme of things that the senior forecasters were speaking about at the met
The weather over the other side of the Atlantic will have a massive bearing on our winter this year
Thanks for posting this. The picture of a fast flow across North Atlantic doesn't seem good for cold to me! :-(
Karyo
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I think we are seeing the building blocks to a met office anticipated Atlantic dominated winter
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He hasn't made an outlandish claim nor brought out a forecast to the media or public. This is what is being talked about in confidence. The met will not bring out an early forecast again as they have stated. Just giving you an early taste on there current "opinions"
As for mr madden. I know this guy and he has no meteorogical background. He got an A in geography when he did his A levels so don't believe a word he says. He is an absolute conman, if anyone's reading his forecasters they are wasting there time
So, wait, are you saying this year will be a mild one, or just not colder than last year? Which one is it?
I'm very doubtful of what you're saying, unless you have valid sources. No Met Office senior forecaster would make such an outlandish claim, especially so early in the season.
Anyway, a primarily Atlantic dominated winter does not mean a cold spell won't occur at any point.. last winter was largely average - above average except December.
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I agree with what your saying but independent forecaster will get lucky with forecasts. The fact of the matter is the met are more "likely" to get there forecast right more than a website like this one and as such comments from mr Hudson should be taken very very very seriously. I would suggest with how strongly worded his opinion was and how sure he was that this year could well be a mild one. It's very unusual to hear him nail his colours to the mast like that. Also I have a relative who works with the senior forecasters. Their general unofficial consensus is they are 80 - 90 % confident of an Atlantic dominated winter
[quote name=Aaron' timestamp='1319069495'
post='2147165]
Look at how many times the Met Office make a boob of their forecasts from time to time - big fancy computers don't mean you're any better. Plus, they're not forecasting anything, they stopped that after making a giant mess of their previous long-range one, compared to some independent ones which got last year almost spot on.
Nobody is saying this winter will be colder than last (which overall was not even very cold), though it CANNOT be ruled out. Anything is possible, things can change so quickly in the world of weather and nothing is written in stone.
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He quoted that and was questioned by the look north team and he replied, look I guarantee we will not be colder than last year and went on to call the cold weather forecasts by some amateur website/forecasters as ridiculous I.e net-weather, two and so on. You have to agree that some of the forecast attempts by small websites over what professionals and supercomputers the Matt office use is a little bit outrageous? Like a non league footballer claiming he's better than messi? Lol
There is never a 0% chance.. that would be very unprofessional of Paul Hudson to say that.
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Pws's track record is shamblolic! I have no idea why businesses pay these clueless guys because I get the feeling there knowledge is very limited! I think some of the senior forecasters on here I.e Gp, John Holmes are some of the best in the country
Erm...i somehow don't think that PWS is right.....what ever happened to waiting to november
James madden only writes what people want to hear, his knowledge is very limited. I can see why people are quoting him as its what people like to believe might happen. If you heard Paul Hudson on look north he said based on current projections from the european weather agency that there is 0% chance of this year being colder than the last. Watch the episode on the net. He is very confident of this and don't forget he is a trained professional unlike James madden and unlike everyone else on here
People shouldn't be so quick to write off James Madden, he is after all giving valid reasons as to why he thinks this winter will be cold.
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I've core data back up my view as well as old transcripts. So my view is a proven, scientific one. I find it a little strange and almost dillusional the fact you are trying to disprove an already proven fact. It's like trying to tell people gravity doesn't exist and no matter how many times people tell you it's a proven fact you still feel obliged to argue the toss..
Isn't your view a sensationalist political like statement?
It's certainly not backed up by observations, because we don't have accurate observations even before the 1950s.
There's little doubt the ice has receeded considerably more as recently as the Medieval warm period, and the 1940s saw dramatic reductions in a short period.
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There has never been a period in earths history that warming and melting has happened so quick. If you are going to quote, then quote actual facts not sensationalistic, political like statements.
Are you on a wind up or do you just have no understanding of the arctic?
This conjures up Serreze tipping points, a concept recently largely discounted by mainstream studies.
(it also flies in the face of commonsense since we know there have been similar low ice episodes many times before)
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I know I've been criticised for criticising some of your posts in the best SB but while I know you love hurricanes and extreme weather (as do I) comments like sadly are a little narrow minded and worrying to say the least.
Providing nobody gets killed i love big hurricanes making landfall.
I actually have little sympathy for the destruction of property ect.. which people may consider wrong however we live in a world where you can choose where to live in that country, if you choose to live in a place where hurricanes hit (New Orleans for example) then i have little sympathy if your roof gets blown off.
Model Output Discussion - Late October Onwards
in Forecast Model Discussion
Posted
Yep! But this year isn't set up for the snow we had last year. Mild old winter I feel