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Everything posted by J-Man
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The showers forming over north sea are already a snow/rain mix so no concerns from me that they'll be anything but snow when arriving on our shores.
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I normally have to head to the hills for my winter hiking but next week the dunes around alnmouth will probably be just as challenging.
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Probably been snowing in consett since September and those shelves just haven't had a delivery to be replenished.
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Noticeably colder wind chill this evening.
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Amble, you must be Widdrington or maybe Acklington?
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I really think that figure is massively underestimated. 15cm totals over a 4/5 day period? The latest BBC forecast was warning people to be prepared, stock up etc due to the snow potential. 15cm over that period wouldn't cause that much disruption, councils would be able to keep on top of it. Place your bets. I'll go double that as minimum.
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Yeah but the uppers are colder so the difference between that and sea temp should be close to 2010. Also stronger sun = more convection and the fetch from Norway to our area or say Netherlands is neither here nor there. Maybe im being over positive time will tell.
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Every met forecast (website) for my area over past few days has shown an upgrade in terms of snow, looking at relentless snow falling over 3 day period. Even as showers the breaks between would be shorted lived. I am personally expecting record snow fall for my area of the Northumberland coast....we dont often get much 2010 was a special time but think we'll beat it in 2018.
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Completely agree, the NE coastal area will be knee deep...1-3cm...no chance. Whitby will be cut off as usual, Consett will have drifts up to people's windows and the A1 in Northumberland will be blocked from Morpeth north to Belford.
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Ive done very little since Friday except model watching and my head is done in. After the 18z GFS comes out it'll be break time for a couple of days then see how things develop on Wednesday.
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Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
J-Man replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The low sits over the North Sea for 4 days, feeding in snow. This is "potentially" going to be a period to remember. ECM on board although with the low slightly more North East but still giving us what we crave. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
J-Man replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
I think the gfs has been quite reasonable over past 5 weeks, yes things drop in the drop out then back in again but so far this autumn its generally been on the ball with the patterns. Lets hope it continues over coming month. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
J-Man replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Just 132 hrs from now. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
J-Man replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Too keen, too excited...apologies. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
J-Man replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
The low on the 18z looks even deeper. -
Model Output Discussion - cold spell to end Autumn
J-Man replied to Paul's topic in Forecast Model Discussion
Surface sea temps in the north sea are lower than average thanks to the cold November, this will only have a positive impact for any potential snow event for coastal areas next week. -
Great thanks.
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Im pretty new to all this is there any where I can find a list of what all the acronyms stand for....the one that I cannot work out which I see the most is FI.....
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Snow And Ice In The Northern Hemisphere 2017/18
J-Man replied to cyclonic happiness's topic in Spring Weather Discussion
First area of white showing on west side of Scotland, long may it last. Looking at models we should (fingers crossed) see whiteness develop over northern uk in coming weeks. -
Its also encouraging that the models predicted both the pre Halloween cold snap and now this bonfire night one. Both were showing at least 7 days in advance which is a complete turn around to recent years.
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Did it snow in London one late October in maybe 2009/2010....can anyone find the chart, if they can verify that it did snow, so we can compare that to this potential cold snap.
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Hurricane Ophelia
J-Man replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
All quiet in northumberland. according to the models we get it tonight. -
Hurricane Ophelia
J-Man replied to Jo Farrow's topic in Hurricanes, Cyclones and Extreme weather worldwide
Fingers crossed nothing horrible happens to anyone tomorrow, good night.